Even in the throes of a miserable run of form to end what he has labeled a “terrible” Formula One season with Red Bull, Sergio Pérez’s outward confidence about his future has never been shaken.
On Thursday, ahead of the Qatar Grand Prix, Pérez remained adamant he still had the team’s support. He said it was “very difficult for people to understand” the reasons why he has struggled so much compared to Max Verstappen, his world champion teammate, and that there was “a reason why” Red Bull extended his contract for 2025.
Asked if he could say, with 100 percent confidence, that he would be racing for Red Bull next year, Pérez gave a mumbled reply: “Yeah, exactly.”
But as his struggles appeared to hit a new low in Qatar, the writing looks increasingly on the wall for Pérez at Red Bull going to the final race of the season in Abu Dhabi this week.
Three years ago, Abu Dhabi was the site of arguably his finest hour as a Red Bull driver. Pérez pulled off some fantastic defensive moves against Lewis Hamilton to deliberately slow him down and help bring Verstappen back into contention for the race and his first championship win, secured on the last lap after race director Michael Masi’s erroneous restart decision. Verstappen maintains he would not have won that title without the help of Pérez, who earned the nickname of the ‘Mexican Minister of Defense’ thanks to his actions.
Pérez arrives in Abu Dhabi this weekend with the gulf between himself and Verstappen at its widest. Verstappen has scored nine wins and clinched a fourth world title in an imperfect Red Bull car compared to previous years. Pérez has floundered. He has not finished on the podium since the Chinese GP in April or even recorded a top-five finish since round six in Miami. Even Zhou Guanyu of Sauber (who had no points through the first 22 rounds) has outscored him 4-2 in the past four races.
Pérez’s struggles hit a new low through the Qatar weekend. First came his SQ1 exit on Friday, qualifying 16th for the sprint. Red Bull decided to start him from the pit lane to make some setup changes to his car, only for Pérez to fail to pull out of the pits when the light went green, allowing Franco Colapinto behind to simply drive around him. He claimed this was because Red Bull wanted free air to use the sprint as a test session, but as team principal Christian Horner pointed out on Sunday, “we sent him to the end of the pit lane seven minutes ahead of Colapinto for a reason.”
Saturday night brought an improvement as he qualified ninth and reached Q3 for the first time since Austin, albeit still nine-tenths of a second slower than Verstappen on pole. But he then spun out on cold tires under the safety car in the race and lost drive on his car, resulting in a retirement.
Qatar confirmed Red Bull’s mathematical defeat in the constructors’ championship. It will be only the third time since 2000 that the drivers’ champion has not also raced for the champion team. Verstappen has scored close to triple Pérez’s points this year. He leads Norris by 80 points in the drivers’ championship, while Red Bull is 59 behind McLaren in the constructors’ with 44 available in Abu Dhabi.
Pérez’s future has regularly been in the spotlight this year. Ahead of the summer break, Horner called his form “unsustainable” but kept faith in the 34-year-old veteran, who had been handed a new contract in June. It was a way to try and support him, an arm around the shoulder to rekindle Pérez’s early-season form where he was on the podium four times in five races.
Even with that contract in place, as Red Bull looks to 2025 and bids to recapture the constructors’ title from either McLaren or Ferrari, it is becoming increasingly clear that a change is required.
Post-race in Qatar, Horner said Red Bull was “very much focused on really supporting (Pérez) to the checkered flag in Abu Dhabi” and that he was “old enough and wise enough to know what the situation is.” He talked up Pérez’s contributions to Red Bull, mentioning Abu Dhabi 2021 and his five wins in Red Bull colors, and said that “everybody holds Checo in the highest of regards and respect. But obviously, the situation we’re in is as painful for him as it is for the team.”
No final decision has yet been taken on Pérez’s future, and Horner said it was “all a hypothetical subject” being discussed. “Let’s get to the end of Abu Dhabi and see where we’re at.”
The complication for Red Bull is that there is no single outstanding replacement for Pérez, particularly so late in the driver market. However, history shows it usually turns to its junior F1 team, now known as RB, when selecting a replacement. When Pérez was signed for 2021 to replace Alex Albon, it was the first time since 2007 that Red Bull had gone outside its young driver pool for its senior team.
Current RB drivers Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda have been asked questions about a move up to the senior team throughout this year. Lawson’s name was in the mix when Red Bull considered a mid-season change at the senior team, with the New Zealander getting onto the grid full-time as of Austin following Daniel Ricciardo’s departure. He has always been held in high regard by the Red Bull program.
Based on his four seasons of F1 experience, Tsunoda would appear to be the more logical option for replacing Pérez. The Japanese driver has taken consistent steps in performance each year since debuting in 2021 and has wondered why his name has never seriously been linked to the senior Red Bull team.
On Thursday in Qatar, he said the final two races of the season were “definitely more important to be in that mix, talking about the (Red Bull) seat” and that his goal was “to force myself with my results or my performance that (they think) ‘Maybe, we really need Yuki to be in our seat.’” Tsunoda will get his first chance to drive a Red Bull F1 car in the post-race test in Abu Dhabi, and he said from his preparations in the simulator that he thought it was “a car that suits me.”
The concern from Red Bull over promoting Tsunoda to the senior team has always been his temperament and composure in the car. While he is undeniably quick, his pace being on par with Lawson’s in their five races together this season, there remains uncertainty if he is a complete enough driver for the senior Red Bull team.
Another name linked to Red Bull recently is Colapinto, whose initial performances for Williams this fall led to significant interest throughout the grid. Unable to offer him a seat for 2025, Williams was always open to a deal to release him on the right terms, only for some of that interest to cool in light of his recent crashes in Brazil and Las Vegas — including from Red Bull. Horner said in Qatar that “you’re always keeping your eye on what the market is in all teams, but we have the strength and depth in the junior program.”
The leading star of that junior program outside of F1 is French driver Isack Hadjar, who heads to Abu Dhabi in contention for the Formula Two title. Hadjar finished second in Sunday’s F2 feature race, cutting the gap to championship leader and 2025 Sauber F1 driver Gabriel Bortoleto to just half a point. If either Lawson or Tsunoda were to move up to Red Bull, then with Colapinto no longer in the picture, Hadjar would be first in line to take a seat at RB.
“If it can help, of course winning an F2 title is a good thing to have, a good argument as well,” Hadjar said after the race. “We are really late in the season. We need to take this into account. I have shown what I can do on track this year.”
Abu Dhabi will be a race of goodbyes for many drivers and their teams. For Pérez, it won’t be until after the race week that any final decision is made on his future, which would set off the dominoes at Red Bull Racing for anything underneath him. The fashion in which Horner spoke of Pérez shows how highly he is regarded within the team for his contributions over the years, making it likely that any exit would be made amicable and civil.
But the simple truth is that Pérez’s form in 2024 has not been good enough. Currently P8 in the standings, it will be the lowest championship finish by the world champion’s teammate since 1994, when Jos Verstappen (Max’s father) finished 10th alongside Michael Schumacher at Benetton, albeit only completing 10 of the 16 rounds that year. Had Pérez scored even half of Verstappen’s points tally this year, Red Bull would have more points than McLaren’s current total going into the final round in Abu Dhabi.
Looking ahead to Abu Dhabi, Pérez said after the race in Qatar there had been “some signs, some flashes of pace” of late and that “we just have to put it all together.” It’s a similar line we’ve heard all year, only for it never to fully come good.
“I really hope for the final race, we can get everything right,” Pérez said. Barring a shock, sensational result, it is likely to be his last chance to do so in Red Bull Racing colors.
Top photo: Mark Thompson/Getty Images
