We are entering the seventh week of the 2024-25 season, and things are starting to round into greater focus. There are some valid concerns about teams not performing up to preseason expectations. After Anthony Edwards’ latest comments about his team, we’ll definitely check in on Minnesota. We also have some excitement over teams exceeding their preseason expectations. We’ve also got the end of NBA Cup group play happening Tuesday, when our six group winners and two wild-card teams will be official. As of right now, three of those group winners have been decided.
Here’s your latest NBA Rewind!
Stock Report extended
So much of this season has been about the players missing on the floor. Stars have missed a lot of time, and it’s crippled a lot of what their respective teams can do. In recent weeks, we’ve highlighted how the Orlando Magic have found themselves immune to that. We have another team leading off the NBA Stock Report also doing a great job of surviving missing stars this season. It’s time to track who is trending in the right direction and who is trending in the wrong direction with the latest market!
📈 Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies just won their sixth straight on Sunday with a 136-121 victory over the Indiana Pacers. Memphis went 4-0 this week and is up to 14-7 on the season. That puts the Grizzlies third in the West, just a half-game behind Houston for second. They have not just survived their injuries this season, but they’re once again thriving no matter who is on the court. In the 2021-22 season, Memphis went 20-5 without Ja Morant and finished the season 56-26. The Grizzlies went 11-10 without Morant in the 2022-23 season and 51-31 overall. Last season, they went just 21-52 without their franchise player and were 6-3 with him. They’re 8-3 with Morant this season and 6-4 without him. They haven’t just missed Morant either. Desmond Bane has missed seven games, Marcus Smart has been out for 10, Vince Williams Jr. has sat out 18 and GG Jackson has yet to play this season.
📉 Golden State Warriors: The Warriors are on a four-game losing streak after starting the season battling for the best record in the West. They’ve lost to the Spurs, Nets, Thunder and Suns over their last four contests. I know what you’re wondering. Did Steph Curry play in those? He played in three of them! He missed the loss to the Thunder. Jonathan Kuminga missed two of those games. Mostly, the Warriors aren’t shooting the ball like they had been, and it’s ruined their defensive efforts. Their next four games are at Denver and then home to Houston and Minnesota (twice) before the NBA Cup elimination round begins for them.
📈 Dallas Mavericks: The Mavericks have won eight of their last nine games, including four straight. During this stretch, Dallas has a top-five offense, a top-five defense and the best net rating in the league. Its only loss came in overtime against the Miami Heat, and Luka Dončić missed six of these nine games. Kyrie Irving, Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington have been carrying the offensive responsibility. The Mavericks dropped to 5-7 because of a four-game losing streak before this stretch, but they’ve been able to right the ship considerably.
📉 Sacramento Kings: The Kings are heading in the wrong direction, having lost six of their last seven games. Their only win in this stretch came against Minnesota, which led to an internal crisis by the Wolves themselves. Sacramento has really struggled to score during these seven games with one of the worst offenses in the league. DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk both missed half of them, and Domantas Sabonis missed one. This just isn’t the Kings team we’re used to seeing. The good news is their defense has been decent, but this team is missing its identity on the floor right now.
📈 Atlanta Hawks: Don’t look now, but the Hawks could get back to .500 Monday night when they face the lowly, injured Pelicans. Atlanta has won three straight games, including two wins over the Cavaliers. The team isn’t just relying on Trae Young to be great, and that’s good because his 3-point shot has been off. De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson have been the Hawks’ top scorers during this mini-streak as they’ve combined to make nearly 60 percent of their shots. Zaccharie Risacher has been really good too, and Atlanta is making nearly half of its shots as a team.
📉 Charlotte Hornets: Not only are the Hornets on a five-game losing streak, but LaMelo Ball is out with another injury. The losses themselves haven’t been bad, coming against the Bucks, Magic, Heat, Knicks and Hawks. That’s a pretty tough schedule for any team. What hurts a little bit more is the Hornets played the last four of those at home, and it didn’t help them get a W. Four of them were also within six points each. Ball is now out for at least two weeks with a calf injury, and he missed these last two losses. He was on a four-game heater before the injury, averaging 40.3 points on 32.5 shots. He missed 106 games over the previous two seasons. Hopefully, this injury doesn’t trend in that direction.
Big Story: What’s wrong with the Timberwolves?
These are not the Minnesota Timberwolves so many people got so excited about in last season’s playoff run. These are not the same Wolves who swept the Suns. These are not the same Wolves who ended the defending champion Denver Nuggets’ campaign to win back-to-back titles. These are not even the same Wolves who lost a couple of close games at home to Dallas during Minnesota’s first appearance in the Western Conference finals since 2004. These are the same mediocre Wolves everybody doubted before that playoff run and expected that team to turn into. Actually, they’re probably worse.
Even the 2022-23 Wolves, whom everybody accused of making the worst trade in NBA history (giving up everything for Rudy Gobert), were better than what we’ve seen out of this squad with actual expectations. After eking out a 93-92 win over the LA Clippers Friday night, they improved to 3-7 over their last 10 games … after starting the season 6-3. After their fourth straight loss on Wednesday, the reason for their mediocrity came to light. This was Anthony Edwards after the 115-104 loss that included the Sacramento Kings ending the game on a 29-6 run, via Jon Krawczynski:
“We soft as hell as a team, internally,” Edwards said. “Not to the other team, but internally, we soft. We can’t talk to each other. Just a bunch of little kids. Just like we playing with a bunch of little kids. Everybody, the whole team. We just can’t talk to each other. And we’ve got to figure it out, because we can’t go down this road.”
“I’m trying to get better in that aspect, figure out what the hell to say to get everybody on the same agenda because everybody right now is on different agendas,” Edwards said. “I think that’s one of the main culprits of why we’re losing because everybody out there got their own agenda. I guess their imagination of what’s supposed to be going on, and what’s happening.”
The biggest change from last season was the Karl-Anthony Towns trade right before training camp hit. It doesn’t appear to have been the plan heading into the preseason. It also never appeared to be as much a basketball move as it was a financial decision. The dreaded second apron threatened the viability of this roster’s future, so the Wolves front office decided to sacrifice now for the future. They brought in Julius Randle to temporarily fill Towns’ absence and Donte DiVincenzo to be a key backcourt pairing with Edwards. It is not working out. Let’s break down everything going wrong:
- Defense: Top defensive rating (108.4) last season | Ninth in defensive rating (111.4) this season
- Offense: 17th in offensive rating (114.6) last season | 18th in offensive rating (112.3) this season
- Net rating: Third (plus-6.3) last season | 13th (plus-0.9) this season
- Wins: 56-26 (third in West) last season | 9-10 (11th in West) this season. Projected: 39-43.
- Clutch net rating: Minus-13.1 (27th in NBA) last season | Minus-17.8 (24th) this season
- Clutch wins: 21-15 last season | 6-7 this season
The defense is worse. The offense has regressed. The net rating has also declined. The Wolves are on pace to be under .500 for the season, and they’re worse in the clutch. Other than that, how was the play Mr. Glen Taylor/Alex Rodriguez (we still don’t know who the team owner is!)? It doesn’t help at all if we go into the conversation of what they were at this time a year ago. At this time last season, the Wolves were 15-4, tied with the Boston Celtics for the best record in the entire NBA. Their offense was still just 18th (113.2), but their defense (106.7) was comfortably the best in the world. And only Boston, Philadelphia and Oklahoma City had better net ratings. Minnesota was also 7-1 in clutch games with the third-best net rating (plus-23.1).
The Randle and DiVincenzo additions have not gone to plan if you’re still trying to pretend that trade was about basketball. For numbers, Randle’s stats look totally fine. He’s averaging 21.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists. He’s making 50.2 percent of his shots, 33.7 percent of his 3-pointers and 80.7 percent of his free throws on 6.3 attempts per game. His rebounds are way down from his career numbers, but his scoring, assists and shooting percentages are all higher than his career averages.
While I do believe Randle stagnates and clogs the offense too often, his biggest issue is he really hurts their defense. That might be part of Edwards’ comments about people wanting to do their own things on defense, rather than what the coach says. This could be a product of his limitations defensively, or it could be more about working him in on the fly a couple of days into training camp. The Wolves give up 113.4 points per 100 possessions in 651 minutes with Randle on the court. They give up just 101.5 per 100 in 271 minutes with him off the floor. To put that into better context, the Wolves have a very respectable 110.1 defensive rating with Gobert and Randle paired (415 minutes), and it’s down to 101.0 when it’s Gobert and Naz Reid (231 minutes) paired.
As for DiVincenzo, this has not been the same player we saw in New York or Golden State the last two seasons. The seventh-year veteran’s averages and percentages are down from last season. That goes for his minutes (minus-3.5), points (minus-6.6), rebounds (minus-0.8), field-goal percentage (down 8.9 percentage points) and 3-point shooting (down 7.5 percentage points). DiVincenzo had a 59.7 percent true shooting mark last season, but it’s fallen to a career-worst 49.7 percent this season. In his last 10 games, he has one more made 3-pointer (19) than turnovers (18). Minnesota is better without Randle or DiVincenzo on the floor than it is with them.
What are the three things that could help get the Wolves back on track? I’m so glad I asked myself this question.
- Communicate and listen. Edwards showed good leadership with his comments, riding with coach Chris Finch. If they follow their game plan that worked so well last season and communicate with each other, then things will start correcting on their own. It doesn’t take some massive overhaul. It’s not like Towns was vintage Dennis Rodman on defense last season.
- Ride it out with DiVincenzo. He’s a way better shooter than what we’ve seen from him. He shoots 37.3 percent from 3 for his career and made 40.1 percent of his 3-pointers last season after 39.7 percent the previous campaign. His 32.6 percent from deep now is just an aberration.
- This one is trickier, but I think they’d be better served starting Reid and bringing Randle off the bench. You can stagger the minutes plenty depending on matchups, but I think the balance is better for them. That would require Randle swallowing some of his ego to adjust, and that hasn’t always been his strong suit — especially when the hierarchy changed with Jalen Brunson joining the Knicks. Reid is a weapon who fits better on the floor with Edwards.
I guess there’s a fourth that involves trading Randle, but that’s a topic for another day.
The Week Ahead: The NBA Cup finishes group play Tuesday!
Tuesday! Tuesday! Tuesday! It’s the end of group play in the second inaugural NBA Cup, and then we’re on to the single-elimination round of the formerly named In-Season Tournament. We already have three group winners decided going into the last night of group play action, but there’s so much more to figure out. The fight for East Group B rages on. The jiu-jitsu level of jockeying for position in the wild card is very contentious. We have a surprise group winner already. And then, we have so much to figure out with West Group B and the West wild card in this whole ordeal. It will all be decided Tuesday night.
Don’t forget, the tiebreakers are (in this order): head-to-head in group play, point differential, total points scored and last season’s regular-season record. Also, if a game goes to overtime, then the point differential is just zero. Why? Nobody really knows! It’s what the NBA decided. Here is the NBA Cup breakdown you need going into Tuesday night.
East Group A
Could win the group: Orlando Magic (3-0, plus-60), New York Knicks (3-0, plus-15)
Officially out: Philadelphia 76ers (1-2, minus-9), Brooklyn Nets (1-3, minus-39), Charlotte Hornets (0-3, minus-27)
What’s happening with this group? If the Magic beat the Knicks, Orlando wins the group. If the Knicks beat the Magic, New York wins the group. If the Knicks lose to the Magic, New York is eliminated because its point differential would be below Boston’s. If the Magic lose to the Knicks, they have a pretty big buffer for point differential to grab the wild card. They really just can’t lose by 30 or more to be safe.
Meaningful game this week: Magic at Knicks on Tuesday
East Group B
Could win the group: Milwaukee Bucks (3-0, plus-29), Detroit Pistons (3-0, plus-28)
Officially out: Miami Heat (2-2, plus-20), Toronto Raptors (0-3, minus-28), Indiana Pacers (0-3, minus-49)
What’s happening with this group? This group all comes down to Pistons hosting the Bucks this week. Just as we all expected. The loser has to hope the Magic beat the Knicks for a chance at the wild card, while also not dropping below Boston’s point differential. The Bucks can’t lose by more than five points, unless they score more than 148 points. The Pistons can’t lose by more than four points unless they score more than 142 points. If the Knicks beat the Magic, the loser of Bucks-Pistons is likely out.
Meaningful games this week: Bucks at Pistons on Tuesday
East Group C
Group winner: Atlanta Hawks (3-1, plus-15)
Wild-card hopeful: Boston Celtics (3-1, plus-23)
Officially out: Chicago Bulls (2-2, plus-6), Cleveland Cavaliers (1-2, minus-1), Washington Wizards (0-3, minus-43)
What’s happening with this group? The Hawks actually did it! They won the group when the Celtics beat the Bulls on Friday, thanks to the tiebreaker of head-to-head with Boston. Now, Boston has to play the waiting game with the results of Knicks-Magic and Bucks-Pistons, as detailed above. One more tiebreaker in the Celtics’ favor is if they tie with the wild-card hopefuls in point differential and total points scored in group play. The final tiebreaker is last season’s regular-season record.
Meaningful games this week: None
West Group A
Group winner: Houston Rockets (3-0, plus-49)
Wild-card hopeful: Portland Trail Blazers (2-1, minus-5), LA Clippers (1-2, minus-6)
Officially out: Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2, minus-13), Sacramento Kings (0-3, minus-25)
What’s happening with this group? The Rockets already won the group, so the only thing left for West Group A is figuring out if the Blazers or Clippers can win the wild card. It’s a pretty complicated set of scenarios that would allow the Clippers to win the wild card at this point. The Blazers need to win against LA on Tuesday, and win by a ton of points while every other 2-1 team in the West gets blown out. The Rockets will likely be the top seed in the West in the single elimination bracket, barring some historic blowout loss to the Kings on Tuesday.
Meaningful games this week: Blazers at Clippers on Tuesday
West Group B
Could win the group: San Antonio Spurs (2-1, plus-14), Oklahoma City Thunder (2-1, plus-18), Phoenix Suns (2-1, plus-19)
Officially out: Los Angeles Lakers (2-2, minus-24), Utah Jazz (0-3, minus-27)
What’s happening with this group? Shockingly, the Spurs beating the Suns on Tuesday would give them the group victory, as they’ve already beaten the Thunder and Jazz in this group play. The Suns beating the Spurs would give Phoenix the group if the Thunder somehow lose to the Jazz. If Phoenix wins and the Thunder also win, the latter clinches the group, but Phoenix would be in line for the wild card depending on point differential. OKC has a chance at the wild card.
Meaningful games this week: Spurs at Suns on Tuesday | Jazz at Thunder on Tuesday
West Group C
Group winner: Golden State Warriors (3-0, plus-12)
Wild-card hopeful: Dallas Mavericks (2-1, plus-41), Denver Nuggets (1-2, plus-2), Memphis Grizzlies (1-2, minus-6)
Officially out: New Orleans Pelicans (1-3, plus-49)
What’s happening with this group? The Warriors won this group pretty easily but could still be the No. 1 seed in the West bracket if they win and Houston loses, or if they both win and the Warriors somehow make up the 37-point difference in their current point differentials. Much like the Clippers above, there are avenues to the Nuggets or Grizzlies ending up with the West wild card, but it’s pretty complicated. Most likely, a Mavericks win on Tuesday puts them in the driver’s seat thanks to their monster point differential.
Meaningful games this week: Grizzlies at Mavericks on Tuesday
(Top photo of Anthony Edwards: David Berding / Getty Images)
