The journey to the MVP trophy looks like a two-man voyage, with one traveling by air and the other by ground. The play of Josh Allen (-250) and Saquon Barkley (+310) in recent weeks has vaulted them to favored status for NFL MVP as we wrap Week 13. They are followed in the distance by Jared Goff (+1100), Lamar Jackson (+1200) and Patrick Mahomes (+2200) with five weeks to go in the 2024 season.
NFL regular season MVP odds
Josh Allen: Superman returns
Allen is the undisputed favorite to win the regular season MVP this year, with his odds sliding into the minus-money territory after an electrifying showing in Week 13.
Allen’s season has been more about his impact on the field and winning games rather than running up the numbers. Sunday’s win over the San Francisco 49ers was similar to others from a yardage standpoint (166 total yards), but he dominated elsewhere. Despite playing in snow globe conditions, Allen went 13-of-17 through the air, rushed for a score, threw for two touchdowns (one to himself), and became the first quarterback in NFL history to have a passing, rushing and receiving score in the same game.
The Wyoming product is one of only four players in the 21st century to do so, joining Christian McCaffrey, LaDainian Tomlinson and David Patten.
“Amari Cooper to Josh Allen for the TD!” is a new one 😂
📺: #SFvsBUF on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/scnnIT0NOL— NFL (@NFL) December 2, 2024
Allen has guided Buffalo to seven straight wins and a 10-2 record and helped the franchise clinch a fifth consecutive AFC East title. And again, his numbers aren’t super gaudy (20 touchdown passes, five interceptions, 2,691 passing yards, six rushing touchdowns, 334 rushing yards), but he’s been efficient and effective for a team vying for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Allen’s best statistical measure may be his QBR (74.5), which currently ranks second in the league.
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Eagles-Ravens: Saquon outshines Lamar
In a battle of MVP candidates, it was Barkley who got the last laugh as he pushed the 10-2 Philadelphia Eagles to an eighth straight win by knocking off the Baltimore Ravens. The Pro-Bowl back notched his third straight 100-yard rushing game and eighth of the year to push his rushing total to 1,499, first in the league. Barkley also leads the league in yards from scrimmage (1,766) to go with 13 total touchdowns.
It’s not Thanksgiving anymore, but Saquon is still eating today 😮💨@saquon | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/iN0zg8Tnei
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 2, 2024
To break Eric Dickerson’s vaunted single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards, Barkley needs to average 121.2 rushing yards per game over the final five games. He has rushed to the tune of 124.9 yards per game through the first 12 games of the season.
For Barkley to win MVP, though, he will likely need to win not just the rushing crown but also lead the league in scrimmage TDs and finish atop the yards-from-scrimmage leaderboard as well. He’s already at the top of the rushing yards and scrimmage yards boards, but he currently trails Derrick Henry in total TDs (Henry has 15 to Barkley’s 13).
Barkley boosted his MVP odds at the expense of Lamar Jackson, who continues to put up dazzling numbers. But the Ravens have hit a rough patch, going 3-3 in their last six games. The reigning MVP’s stats were strong vs. Philly (23-of-36, 237 passing yards, two touchdown passes, 79 rushing yards), but were not enough to get the win.
Jackson has 3,290 passing yards, 29 touchdowns with only three interceptions, a 73.4 QBR and a league-best 678 rushing yards among QBs to go along with three more scores on the ground. Statistically, he’s having a better season than his second MVP campaign in 2023. But to claim his third, the Ravens will have to improve on their 8-5 record, with division-leaders in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans still remaining on the slate.
Jared Goff: Motown maestro
The 11-1 Lions may be the best team in the NFL, and Goff is a major contributor to that. Detroit finally won a Thanksgiving game, holding onto the win as the Chicago Bears lost track of time. Goff was strong in the win, going 21-of-34 with 221 passing yards and two touchdown passes.
The former No. 1 overall pick is second in the NFL in both completion percentage (71.8 percent) and passer rating (109), and he ranks in the top 10 in passing yards (2,982) and touchdown passes (22). He has also passed for two or more touchdowns and had a 100-plus passer rating in eight games.
Considering the current odds, Goff’s best shot at winning MVP could be leading Detroit to a 16-1 regular season. Doing so would mean taking wins over playoff contenders in the Green Bay Packers, Bills and Minnesota Vikings in the process. Showing out against other strong competition gives Goff a potential path to winning MVP.
Patrick Mahomes: Late to the party
If the Mahomes we’ve seen in recent weeks were here all season, this year’s MVP race would be a lot closer. The two-time defending Super Bowl champion led the Kansas City Chiefs to their 11th win of the year in a wild AFC West affair with the Las Vegas Raiders. While the end of the game grabbed a lot of attention, Mahomes was able to lift KC with 306 passing yards and a score through the air to become the franchise’s all-time leader in TD passes.
🚨 FLOATER ALERT 🚨 pic.twitter.com/4qOHk2dJNF
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 29, 2024
In the month of November, Mahomes posted an 11-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with 265.5 passing yards per game and a 100.4 passer rating. Unfortunately, his numbers over the first seven games (eight touchdowns, nine interceptions, 84.9 passer rating) may have put him in too deep of a hole in the MVP race.
But at this point, I’m sure Mahomes is more focused on the postseason. Because a fourth Super Bowl MVP has to mean more to him than a third league MVP, right?
(Photo of Josh Allen: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
