It’s crunch time for NFL teams and survivor pools. If you’re still in your pool this year, we tip our caps to you. Last week went off with less of a hitch than we’ve grown accustomed to this season, with the week’s top pick, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, squeaking by with an overtime win against the Carolina Panthers.
The not-so-hot plot twist if you picked Tampa Bay? The Bucs could be this week’s best pick. The NFL loves keeping survivors on their toes.
All that to say, our columnists are back with survivor tips and picks to help you become your pool’s sole survivor. First, they’ll answer reader questions with strategies for specific scenarios. Then they’ll each give their top pick for this week.
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Week 14 survivor pool Q&A
Questions are lightly edited for clarity.
Question from Gary F.: “As far as popularity, how would you rank the following teams? Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans. Thanks.”
Adam: We actually have some numbers on this, but as of Tuesday, Tampa Bay is the most popular pick this week out of those four, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings.
I’m not sure I disagree with the public on those, either. Tampa Bay is playing for a division championship, still very much in the NFC South race and a much better team than its opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders. Compounding that, the Raiders are traveling across the country for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff, which is a tough time slot for West Coast teams. Tampa Bay is a touchdown favorite in the game for good reason.
The Saints would be my second pick — ahead of the Steelers — because the New York Giants are a complete mess.
Minnesota is the one team here I would try to avoid. They keep winning close games and dancing through the raindrops. I know the Atlanta Falcons are struggling right now, but there is talent in Atlanta, and there’s always a chance Kirk Cousins will bounce back.
Question from Chris S.: “PIT vs. CLE (short rest) or CIN @ DAL (extended rest)?”
Renee: I love the way the Cincinnati Bengals are playing right now, but their defense is concerning. Two things worry me about the Steelers — they lost to the Cleveland Browns two weeks ago in the snow game, and Cleveland just put up 32 points on the Denver Broncos. Now, the Broncos’ defense hasn’t been as stout as Pittsburgh’s, but Browns skill players were wide-open all night. Then again, the Browns find ways to lose games (two pick-sixes for Jameis Winston is no good). However, this is a divisional game, and AFC North games are among the most difficult to predict.
All said, I come back to the Bengals. I’d generally rather take the home team with the better defense, but the Dallas Cowboys barely beat the Giants on Thanksgiving. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of what has been a soft Cowboys pass (and run) defense. I get your rest angle, but I’m not giving it more weight than Vegas already does, and the Bengals are simply the better team.
Question from Joey N.: “Down to the last four out of 400, and I’ve used all the top teams. Should I use PIT, CIN, MIA or maybe TEN?”
Adam: Pittsburgh was just beaten by Cleveland two weeks ago, but that was a really difficult spot for the Steelers. It was a short week on the road, just four days after playing their most physical and emotional game of the season against their fiercest rival (Baltimore Ravens) with first place in the AFC North on the line. Add in snow, and that was always going to be a tough game. The Steelers are at home and should have some extra motivation to beat Cleveland this week. In terms of team quality, the Steelers are the best of the four teams you have remaining, but AFC North games can be weird.
I know the Bengals’ defense is awful, but so is the Cowboys’, and Joe Burrow might be able to truly feast on them. Can Cooper Rush outscore Burrow? How invested will Cincinnati be in this game, knowing its season might be over? I like the matchup, even if I have some pause.
The Miami Dolphins might be the pick I am most confident in out of these four. The New York Jets look like they have completely mailed it in this season, while Aaron Rodgers looks beyond cooked. Miami isn’t anything special but still has something to play for, and the Dolphins always beat the bad teams — especially at home — even if those are the only teams they beat.
The Tennessee Titans stink, but the Jacksonville Jaguars might stink worse and will have Mac Jones under center. I am probably the least confident in this game. Ranked in order of most likely to win with the highest confidence: Dolphins, Steelers, Bengals, Titans.
Question from Michael G.: “Five teams left in my pool of 660. I’m choosing between the Bucs, Steelers, Dolphins, Bengals. I’m leaning Steelers. What do you think?”
Question from Bobby: “Adding another vote, please, for Mike’s question: Bucs, Steelers, Dolphins? Should we start considering passing over longshot-to-playoffs teams (i.e., Dolphins three games back) who might be undermotivated and playing instead for draft spots?”
Renee: Congrats, Michael! I wonder who the lone loser picked in Week 13 since all the favorites pretty much got the job done. Adam touched on motivation above, which potentially applies to the Bengals and Dolphins. However, I think it’s a week too early to give motivation too much weight. The Dolphins will certainly play harder than the Jets, right?
The Bucs are my top choice among these. If you didn’t use them last week, this is the game you were saving them for. They definitely have the motivation since they are playing well but not as well as they’d like (overtime vs. the Panthers was unexpected) come playoff time. The Raiders are among those most likely to phone it in after a tough loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Black Friday. They get extra rest but will play in the early window on the East Coast on Sunday.
I touched on the Steelers above, and so did Adam. They absolutely should win, but I don’t feel great about picking them. In order of confidence, I’d go with the Bucs, Bengals, Dolphins, and Steelers.
Top picks for Week 14
The table below lists Yahoo Fantasy’s five most popular survivor picks for Week 14, with the percentage of pick distribution for each team and the point spread from BetMGM for each of their games as of Dec. 3.
| TEAM | Opponent | Pick % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
 Eagles |
vs. Panthers
|
28%
|
-12.5
|
 Buccaneers |
vs. Raiders
|
16%
|
-7
|
 Steelers |
vs. Browns
|
11.20%
|
-6.5
|
 Saints |
at Giants
|
9.20%
|
-5
|
 Vikings |
vs. Falcons
|
6.80%
|
-5
|
Adam: Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Las Vegas Raiders
The Buccaneers were the popular pick a week ago, but if you saved them and still have them at your disposal, they will be one of the most popular picks again. I know they got a scare against Carolina, but the Panthers have been a problem in recent weeks, especially now that Bryce Young is slowly but surely adapting to the NFL. They might not be good, but they are putting up a fight.
Tampa Bay is favored by a touchdown over the Raiders, and this game shouldn’t be as close as when the Bucs played Carolina. Not only are the Raiders possibly worse than the Panthers, but also, as I pointed out above, the Raiders have to go from the Pacific time zone to the Eastern time zone for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. That is a challenge for good teams and adds another layer for an already bad team playing against a team fighting for a division championship.
The Philadelphia Eagles, Steelers, Saints, Vikings and maybe even the Titans (against Jacksonville) should be good bets, but Tampa Bay should win and win big.
Renee: Minnesota Vikings over Atlanta Falcons
I wrote up the Bucs last week, and they almost gave me a heart attack … but if you didn’t use them vs. Carolina, I assume you saved them for this week. If you, like the majority, did survive with Tampa last week, you need an alternate. My choice among teams people realistically have left is the Vikings.
They’re at home and facing a Falcons team coming off a very Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde game. On the one hand, their defense stepped up. On the other, Kirk Cousins damn near completed more passes to Los Angeles Chargers defenders than his receivers (not really, but four interceptions to 24 completions isn’t a great ratio). Both teams are motivated, but the Vikings have been the better team on both sides of the ball. The Vikings are fifth in points allowed and ninth in points scored, with the fourth-best scoring margin (+6.5 points). That is despite just barely squeaking by the Arizona Cardinals last week. Atlanta has a negative scoring margin (-2.8 points).
The talent level is high for both teams, but ultimately Minnesota has the bigger star (Justin Jefferson) and the deeper talent well at WR and TE. Atlanta’s biggest strength is its running backs, but Minnesota allows the fewest rushing yards and fewest rushing touchdowns to opponents in the league. Add it up, and the Vikings should come away with a big win this weekend.
(Photo of Baker Mayfield: Elsa / Getty Images)
