Alabama CFP viewing guide: How each conference championship game affects the Tide

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — If the College Football Playoff started tomorrow, Alabama would be in the 12-team field. The updated rankings were released on Tuesday night, and Alabama is ranked No. 12, which would put the Tide at No. 11 in the bracket with a game at No. 6 Notre Dame in the first round of the Playoff.

More importantly than the ranking, there’s no chance for teams behind Alabama — Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina — to jump ahead of it.

“Teams that are not playing cannot be adjusted where they are compared to other teams that are not playing,” CFP committee chair Warde Manuel said.

On why Alabama is ranked ahead of Miami by one spot: “(Alabama) is 3-1 against current Top 25 teams, and Miami is 0-1. Alabama is 6-1 against teams above .500, and Miami is 4-2. Both have had some losses that weren’t what they wanted out of those games, but in the last three games, Miami has lost twice.”

Here is how the 12-team College Football Playoff field would look based on the latest rankings 👀 pic.twitter.com/QL781Y64wG

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 4, 2024

It has been a collective effort during the past few days to help push Alabama’s agenda forward. On Monday, athletic director Greg Byrne took to X with a custom graphic of Alabama’s favorable analytics including opponent winning percentage (second nationally), strength of schedule (10th) and offensive/defensive/special teams efficiency (fourth in ESPN’s efficiency ratings).

Here’s a good look at the numbers/rankings for @AlabamaFTBL. Recognize there’s lots of chatter out there about 2 vs. 3 loss teams, however that is just one factor. When you look at the @CFBPlayoff Principles for its Selection Committee, the first bullet point on the list of… pic.twitter.com/EGrp7pVbaA

— Greg Byrne (@Greg_Byrne) December 3, 2024

On the Pat McAfee show on Tuesday, coach Kalen DeBoer said, “I think we have all those character traits you need as a team. We have the explosiveness. We have the physicality. … We’re what you’re looking for when it comes to playing at that championship level.”

Offensive lineman Tyler Booker via The Next Round on Monday: “The schedule we’ve played, the talent we have on the roster, I definitely think we’re one of the 12 best teams. Our record might not be the prettiest, but when Alabama comes to play, we’re one of the 12 best teams.”

Now, Alabama watches and waits to see how conference championship weekend unfolds. Each game has varying degrees of how much it affects Alabama from seeding to potential matchups. Here’s the Alabama CFP viewing guide, putting the importance of each game into perspective and the ideal scenario for Alabama:

ACC: Clemson vs. SMU

Impact: Significant

Ideal outcome: SMU win

This is the game. The situation is simple: SMU wins, Alabama is in. Clemson wins, things will get interesting. Clemson is a bid stealer, so if the Tigers win the ACC, they will clinch an automatic spot and send SMU to the at-large pool. The Mustangs are ranked No. 8 (and seeded No. 3), so will the committee drop them out of the field completely with a loss? Here’s what Manuel said about that possibility on the Tuesday night media teleconference: “Potentially, yes.”

It might come down to how the game unfolds.

The case for Alabama has been stated by the committee. The case for SMU would be an 11-2 record, undefeated in ACC play (regular season), and the only regular-season loss to No. 18 BYU by only three points.

Alabama vs. SMU. … What would the committee do? Alabama should cheer hard for SMU and hope it doesn’t find out.

Big Ten: Oregon vs. Penn State

Impact: Moderate

Ideal outcome: Depends on preference

This game features two teams that will make the Playoff field regardless of the outcome. The question is if Oregon wins, will Penn State drop below Notre Dame? If so, those teams would trade spots, and Alabama would travel to Penn State. If the Nittany Lions pull the upset, Alabama would travel to Notre Dame because Oregon would drop to the No. 5 seed.

Would Alabama rather face Notre Dame or Penn State?

Big 12: Arizona State vs. Iowa State

Impact: Minimal

The committee’s rankings put Arizona State and Iowa State behind Alabama. The fact that they’re behind Alabama means whoever wins will likely still fall behind Alabama in the final rankings.

SEC: Texas vs. Georgia

Impact: Significant

Ideal outcome: Georgia win

If Clemson beats SMU and it becomes an Alabama/SMU debate, having a win over the SEC champion would be a major resume booster for the Tide. That 41-34 result is the crown jewel of Alabama’s resume, so a Georgia win would solidify that as arguably the best win of any team in the country.

A Georgia loss would dim that some and affect the seeding of teams in the bottom half of the 12-team field. Could that lend itself to Alabama-Georgia II, this time in Athens?

Mountain West: Boise State vs. UNLV

Impact: Moderate

Ideal outcome: Boise State win

Similar to the ACC scenario: A Boise State win keeps everything in line for Alabama, but a UNLV upset drops Boise State to the at-large pool.

The case for Boise State: 11-2 overall with an average margin of victory of 19.2 points per game, a 38-35 loss to Oregon and wins over Oregon State and Washington State. Oh, and the Ashton Jeanty star effect doesn’t hurt.

The fewer teams that Alabama is compared to on Selection Sunday the better.