Let’s raise a banner, shall we?
The final night of NBA Cup group play on Tuesday had a mix of comebacks, close finishes, calamities and controversies. Now, the field is set for the knockout stages.
The stage is set for the Knockout Rounds 🏆
Quarterfinal #EmiratesNBACup action takes place next Tuesday, 12/10, on TNT and Wednesday, 12/11, on ESPN and TNT! pic.twitter.com/qDaKBbKCF1
— NBA (@NBA) December 4, 2024
The eight teams that advanced — the Magic, Bucks, Hawks, Knicks, Mavericks, Thunder, Warriors and Rockets — will face each other in local markets for the quarterfinals. The four winners of those games will advance to Las Vegas for the semifinals, while the four losers will meet on Dec. 15 or 16 in local markets. Those two games will count toward regular-season standings.
The winners of the two semifinal games in Las Vegas will play on Dec. 17 for the NBA Cup championship. While the championship will not count toward regular-season standings or statistics, the players on the winning team will earn more than half a million dollars. (And, of course, a year of bragging rights.)
What happens in the NBA Cup is not a surefire indication that a team will do big things in the spring. Last year, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers to win the inaugural In-Season Tournament in a field that also saw the Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans advance to Las Vegas. Though all four of those teams went on to qualify for the 2024 postseason, only the Pacers wound up winning a playoff series, while the Bucks and Lakers changed head coaches.
But we’re here for the fun and the competition! So here’s how these teams measure up to each other, and how I think it could go:
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks (Tuesday, Dec. 10)
Have they met this season?
This will be their first meeting of the season. The Magic were already scheduled to visit Milwaukee twice. Last season, the two teams split the regular-season series.
Do they have a playoff history?
The Magic and Bucks have only met in the postseason twice, with both ending in first-round wins for the Bucks. The teams met in the 2020 restart in the bubble, and in 2001, when Bucks coach Doc Rivers was the coach of the Magic.
When the Magic have the ball …
The Magic have a bottom-10 offense and will be going up against a Bucks defense that has improved significantly while winning nine of their last 10 games. Only five teams allow more 3s than Milwaukee, but only the Washington Wizards have been less accurate from 3 than the Magic this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a premiere test for emerging Magic star forward Franz Wagner.
When the Bucks have the ball …
The Bucks have a top-10 offense, but the Magic have been the best defense in the East. Orlando is the only defense in the league that is in the top three in both turnover and defensive rebounding percentage, while the Bucks are the worst offensive rebounding team in the league. The Magic also allow the fewest 3s of any East team, though the Bucks have point guard Damian Lillard, a tougher assignment defensively because of his extended range.
Who wins?
This matchup pits two of the hottest teams in the league against each other, as well as two teams that have had to overcome early-season adversity. I feel like the Bucks have the edge as the home team, as well as the lone team in this field that made it to Las Vegas a year ago.
Prediction: Bucks
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (Tuesday, Dec. 10)
Have they met this season?
Yes. The Mavericks beat the Thunder 121-119 at Paycom Center last month, a Dallas win keyed by PJ Washington. This December matchup might go differently, as Mavericks point guard Luka Dončić and Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein both missed the game with injuries they have since returned from.
Do they have a playoff history?
The two teams have met in the postseason four times since the Thunder relocated from Seattle, with the most critical series being the 2011 Western Conference finals that the Mavericks won en route to their first NBA Championship. Last year, the Mavericks upset the top-seeded Thunder in the West semifinals.
When the Mavericks have the ball …
This matchup pits a top-five Mavericks offense against the NBA’s best defense. The Mavericks have been comfortable offensively against the Thunder, in part because Dallas is one of the least frequent ball-movement teams in the league. That helps against an Oklahoma City defense that leads the league in steals. The Thunder also allow the fewest paint points in the league, and the Mavericks are one of the highest-scoring paint teams in the league this season. OKC will have a real challenge keeping Dončić and Kyrie Irving from making plays.
When the Thunder have the ball …
The Mavericks have a top-10 defense, while the Thunder have a top-10 offense. The Mavericks are physical along the perimeter in their attempt to make things tough on shooters. How they do that against Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be a challenge for the Mavericks defense; Gilgeous-Alexander had an efficient 36 points and eight assists with only one turnover last month against Dallas. The issue for the Thunder is how they’re going to score when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor.
Who wins?
When the schedule came out in August, none of the Mavericks-Thunder matchups were slated for national television. The NBA Cup gave the league a mulligan on that decision. These are two of the most isolation-heavy teams in the league, and they tend to play right down to the wire, even if a team gets a double-digit lead. The Mavericks won in the playoffs last year, won in Oklahoma City last month, and have won nine of their last 10 games. As good as the Thunder are playing, it feels like Dallas is comfortable with this matchup.
Prediction: Mavericks
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (Wednesday, Dec. 11)
Have they met this season?
Yes. The Hawks survived 22 made 3s by the Knicks to win 121-116 in Atlanta last month. It was the best game of 2024 NBA Draft No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher’s young career, as the teenage Frenchman scored 33 points on 11-of-18 shooting while adding seven rebounds, three assists, three steals, two blocks and no turnovers. Risacher hasn’t had another game this season with at least 20 points, but he opened a lot of eyes that night.
Do they have a playoff history?
The teams have met three times in the playoffs, with the Knicks winning semifinal series against the Hawks in both 1971 and 1999. But Hawks point guard Trae Young is a certified New York villain after the Hawks upset the Knicks in the 2021 Eastern Conference quarterfinals.
When the Hawks have the ball …
Both the Hawks offense and the Knicks defense are in the bottom 10 in the league. The Hawks are a turnover-prone team, but the Knicks are bad at forcing turnovers, and the Hawks compiled a season-best 3.88 assist-to-turnover ratio against New York last month. If Young can operate comfortably in the open floor and in pick-and-roll, then it will be a long night for the Knicks defense.
When the Knicks have the ball …
The Knicks have emerged as the NBA’s best offense; only the Cavaliers shoot better percentages from the field and from 3. On the flip side, no team allows more made 3s than the Hawks, and opponents shoot those 3s at a league-high 38.5-percent clip. New York is one of the heavier midrange teams in the league, led by All-NBA point guard Jalen Brunson. But there are plenty of 3s to be found against the Hawks.
Who wins?
If this game were in Georgia, I’d look at it differently. The Hawks have shown that they can confidently beat any team in the league, and they could have more bench help than they did when they beat the Knicks in November. But the Knicks have played really well at home, and after giving up 146 points in Milwaukee during last season’s knockout round quarterfinals, they have the rare motivation of not getting embarrassed in this spot for a second year in a row.
Prediction: Knicks
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (Wednesday, Dec. 11)
Have they met this season?
Yes. Last month, the Warriors led by 31 points in the second quarter at Houston, and took a 71-43 halftime lead. Despite trailing 96-80 entering the fourth quarter, the Rockets began the fourth quarter on a game-tying 18-2 run and forced overtime. From there, Warriors power forward Jonathan Kuminga outscored the Rockets 6-2, saving the Warriors from a massive collapse with a 127-121 win. The Warriors made 32 of 50 free throws to make up for the absence of Stephen Curry.
Do they have a playoff history?
The Warriors and Rockets met four times between the 2014-15 seasons and 2018-19 seasons. Each time, Curry’s Warriors beat James Harden’s Rockets, with two of those occurrences taking place in the Western Conference finals (2015 and 2018).
When the Warriors have the ball …
Only the Thunder and Magic have been better on defense this season than the Rockets, who excel as a physical defense that makes it hard for offenses to get comfortable shooting 3s. Only the Timberwolves allow fewer 3s than Houston. Only the Celtics, Bulls and Hornets make more 3s than the Warriors, though. Something’s gotta give. Last month in Houston, the Warriors built their lead by making 12 3s in the first half, but the Rockets came back because the Warriors made only 3 of 12 3s the rest of the game.
When the Rockets have the ball …
The Rockets have an unspectacular offense. Only five teams have worse field-goal percentages than Houston, and only four teams are less than accurate from 3. The ball sticks in Houston, as no team passes it less frequently. The Warriors have a top-five defense that can lock in on stagnant offenses. Houston made only 41.1 percent from the field in the November loss.
Who wins?
These teams will actually meet in Golden State six days before they are scheduled to play in the knockout round. Both teams will certainly be tired of each other by then. Houston is great at the possession battle, skying in for offensive rebounds to rescue for underwhelming performances. It feels like the Warriors will climb out of their current doldrums, while Curry is dangerous enough in a one-game setting to take advantage.
Prediction: Warriors
What happens in Vegas …?
A final four of Bucks-Knicks and Warriors-Mavericks would have everything the NBA could want from a consumer standpoint: champions, big markets, future Hall of Famers and international MVP finalists. The Knicks would be the lone team that hasn’t made an NBA Finals in my Vegas Four, but I believe that the way their offense is performing (and how head coach Tom Thibodeau is already playing his starting lineup playoff-like minutes) makes them a dangerous team to win this NBA Cup.
Prediction: Knicks over Warriors
(Photo illustration: Meech Robinson/The Athletic; photos: Harry How/Getty Images; Stacy Revere/Getty Images; Al Bello/Getty Images; Joshua Gateley/Getty Images; Tim Warner/Getty Images; Joshua Gateley/Getty Images; Jason Miller/Getty Images)
