Thanksgiving is behind us but Browns beat writer Zac Jackson and columnist Jon Greenberg are back to the grind of football betting with eyes fixed on the MAC, of course.
GREENBERG (5-3 last week, 51-38 overall): Matt Eberflus’ last act as Bears coach was ruining everyone’s Thanksgiving over bet. If the Bears kicked a field goal, then any score in overtime would’ve resulted in an over and I would’ve been 5-0 last week in NFL games. I assume I wasn’t alone.
I’m guessing Flus wasn’t thinking about that as time expired on his NFL head coaching career.
I’m guessing you had a better Thanksgiving than he did?
JACKSON (2-5, 45-50): I had some winners. I had some losers. I had lots and lots of mashed potatoes.
Winning is hard, so I need to start by tipping my cap to you for this run that you’re on. Hard, hard game. Keep it going.
Let’s start with the monstrous college game of the weekend. The MAC championship, of course. Red-hot Ohio University, our alma mater, vs. the red-hot RedHawks of Miami University. A rivalry rematch.
Miami is just too good right now with 19th-year senior Brett Gabbert and an outstanding receiving corps. This game is inside Ford Field, and in these ideal conditions I just can’t see Ohio being able to effectively slow this Miami pass game. Gabbert has three receivers with big-play ability and plenty of big-game experience.
Miami team total over 23.5 is the play of the YEAR. I think Ohio can score, too, and I’m always at least a little hesitant in these rematches. But I see Miami making a bunch of big plays, and I trust Gabbert to make clutch plays when necessary, too. When you look at the paths these teams took to get here, I think Miami’s was much tougher and I just think Miami is better equipped for this setting.
Friday night, give me Jacksonville State -5.5 and under 57.5 against Western Kentucky in a rematch from last week. Last week, the game was at Bowling Green — and WKU needed to win to set up a rematch. The game meant nothing to Jacksonville State and the Hilltoppers won on a 50-yard field goal in the closing seconds. This week, I expect Jacksonville State to run it well and deliver a strong defensive performance.
Also, I think Texas-Georgia will be a shootout. Give me over 49.5.
GREENBERG: I was planning on taking my son to the MAC championship, but we’re driving to Ohio on Saturday and I didn’t think leaving at 6 a.m. to make kickoff in Detroit and then driving to Steubenville after the game was feasible for me, an old man with a bad back. Can someone get me a sweatshirt from this historic matchup?
Your Miami love is kind of harshing my Bobcats high, but I’m sticking with Ohio University +2 (note that the line dropped a point in a day). The combination of Frank Solich and a boom in bowl games has made the Bobcats a regular December presence in exotic locales like Shreveport, La. and Boise, Idaho, but they still haven’t won the MAC since 1968, when they lost to Richmond in the Tangerine Bowl. (Hey Homefield, where’s my Tangerine Bowl shirt?) I’ve decided this is their year.
Also, to quote the famous T-shirt, Muck Fiami.
I’m also taking Texas -3 in a rematch against Georgia in the SEC championship Saturday, Boise State -4 against UNLV in the Mountain West title game Friday night and Tulane -4.5 over Army in the AAC championship Friday. My apologies to the troops. And now onto America’s other heroes.
JACKSON: NFL-wise, I’m thinking we have to go Browns-Steelers under 43.5 after the first game — just two weeks ago — went over thanks to 27 points in the fourth quarter during a blizzard.
I love Bengals-Cowboys over 49.5 Monday night in the Nickelodeon game. If the Bengals are still interested, they’re getting 40 themselves.
Do we think the Bears are still interested in a strong finish? The 49ers seem done, so I’m inclined to take more than a field goal and go with Bears +4.
GREENBERG: Speaking of my good run, I actually checked my NFL record the other day and thanks to a 9-3 mark over the last three weeks, I’m 28-16 (64 percent) — not including two failed Caleb Williams props early in the season.
I’m going to start this week’s picks by going against you in Pittsburgh. I’m driving to Ohio for the express purpose of going to see Browns-Steelers with my son and my buddy, tortured Browns fan Matt Greenberg (no relation) and his wife Lea (a wise Steelers fan from Youngstown). It’s supposed to be a nice afternoon on the banks of the Three Rivers so I’m going over 43.5 and over 3.5 times I text you to bring us food from the press box.
On Thursday night, I like the Packers +3.5. Detroit is banged up and due for a loss, or at least another close win. On Sunday, give me, I can’t believe I’m writing this, the Carolina Panthers +12.5 at the Eagles. Both teams have covered four in a row, but I’ll take the resurgent Panthers here. If they lose 48-0, you’ll know my run is ending.
I picked the Bears to win outright in our weekly predictions. The Niners are in a slump and they won’t have Christian McCaffrey. Surely, they see this game as a chance to get right. I don’t know if interim Bears coach Thomas Brown is the answer, but I think the Bears players will be loose and free without the dark cloud of Eberflus’ job status hanging over their heads, not to mention his hilarious late-game stumbles. My favorite “insult stat” of the Eberflus “era” is that the Bears never won a true Sunday road game in his two-plus seasons. (He went 3-19 overall on the road, not including a “home” win in London.) He’s gone now. Take the Bears +4.
JACKSON: So we agree on the Bears. And on the Packers. I might even take a pregame flier on Green Bay to win the NFC at a nice, juicy number (+700 as of Thursday).
I’m also throwing some spare change on Texas +450 to win the national championship. I just hesitate this weekend because last weekend proved that we still don’t know which Georgia team is going to show up — or what this game in particular really means to Texas.
All I want is at least one SEC team to play in the frozen north in the first round of the playoffs and for you to not waste your winnings on flat beer and hot dogs Sunday.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Thomas Brown: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
