Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers gather for a roundtable discussion on trending topics, the best players and the biggest factors in determining which teams can survive this division.
With the positioning and task ahead coming into focus now, what is the most important thing the team you cover must figure out over the final five weeks?
Mike DeFabo (Pittsburgh Steelers): We know the Steelers are a playoff team. We know the defense can be dominant, as they’ve shown by winning two games in which the offense didn’t reach the end zone. We know the offense is much improved with upgrades at QB and coordinator. But can they stand toe-to-toe with the elite teams and prove they are a true Super Bowl contender? We might not have to wait until the postseason to get our answer. Games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs (arguably two of the top four teams in the NFL) will not only be important for the standings, but they will be measuring-stick moments that may tell us how far these Steelers can advance into the playoffs.
Jeff Zrebiec (Baltimore Ravens): It’s stunning to even say this, but the obvious answer is Justin Tucker and the Ravens’ kicking game. It’s not that the Ravens don’t have other concerns. So good all year, the offense has plateaued a bit and the offensive line has struggled against some of the good fronts it has faced. The defense is playing better, yet the pass rush and coverage concerns haven’t just gone away. Tucker, though, is costing them games. He’s missed 10 kicks and eight of them have come in one-score losses. In the five defeats where Tucker missed at least one field, the Ravens have lost by 22 total points. You can play the “what if?” game until you’re breathless, but if Tucker were anywhere close to his typical form, the Ravens would likely be enjoying the view from first place. The Ravens have been understandably patient with Tucker, who has bailed them out too many times to count over the past 13 years. Perhaps, this bye week serves as a mental reset for the kicker. If he comes out of the bye missing kicks, he’ll likely leave John Harbaugh with no other choice.
Paul Dehner Jr. (Cincinnati Bengals): Cincinnati must figure out if any of the young players on this defense can be part of the long-term solution. Specifically, expanded work for rookies DT Kris Jenkins Jr., DT McKinnley Jackson and CB Josh Newton, along with finally allowing 2023 first-round pick Myles Murphy to play a full game and more playing time for safety Jordan Battle. If they can draw momentum and hope from those players for next year, the offseason task of overhauling that side of the ball might not feel quite so daunting.
Zac Jackson (Cleveland Browns): There’s no single answer for the Browns because there’s so much to fix. Maybe Jameis Winston can play his way into another contract and another chance to start next season, but what will happen with the front office? And the salary cap? And the aging lines? And what are the plans with the Browns holding a first-round pick for the first time since 2021? Deshaun Watson sunk this season and his contract makes for a bleak future, but the Browns have multiple issues. They just have to play as many young players as possible in as many different spots for both evaluation and developmental purposes. With three divisional road games left, there are important opportunities still ahead for many players. Let the kids play.
AFC North “Hard Knocks” made its debut on Tuesday, we all had an immediate takeaway from our team, but what was one observation from “Hard Knocks” from one of three teams you don’t cover that you found most interesting?
DeFabo: It’s interesting to see how roster construction ripples through the division. Coach Mike Tomlin referenced how outside linebacker Alex Highsmith’s production forced the Bengals to “go shopping” at left tackle. The funny thing is, the Steelers drafted Highsmith, in part, to have a tandem of high-end edge rushers to combat Lamar Jackson’s mobility. While the show focused on the Bengals and Steelers, the Ravens’ QB was in some ways the first domino.
Zrebiec: Obviously, Mike Tomlin was and will be the star of the show. Given his charisma, known strengths as a motivator and leader and some of his sayings and expressions, I could have told you when the show was announced that he would be the headliner. What I thought was most interesting, though, was the footage of Tomlin honing in on opponents during meetings. They understandably didn’t open the curtain too far and go into strategy or any of that, but him bringing up the “Joe Burrow Plan,” cajoling his players to introduce themselves to Bengals running back Chase Brown and motivating Nick Herbig with the Orlando Brown Jr. talk were interesting glimpses into how coaches get their team ready for different opponents. Beyond Tomlin and that expletive-laced Browns offensive line meeting, episode 1 was a snooze fest.
Dehner Jr.: It’s hard not to come away impressed and holding a deeper understanding of what makes Mike Tomlin such a great coach. It seems any time we are granted the rare inside access to Tomlin, his charisma, personality and leadership pop off the screen. That was the case here. Specifically, what you saw from him with George Pickens after the interception and motivating Nick Herbig throughout the week illustrate why players have always loved playing for him and he’s never experienced a losing season.
“I need you to stay with me…look at me!”
Mike Tomlin’s leadership on full display 🗣️ #HardKnockspic.twitter.com/OjjFQMe4ig
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) December 4, 2024
Jackson: I think Mike Tomlin could motivate me to be better at pumping gas, grocery shopping or even going to the gym. That’s not entirely new, but in what was basically a 50-minute infomercial for Tomlin and the Steelers Tuesday night, the head coach was the star. I think the show was counting on a better (and deeper) divisional race, and my hopes for compelling television for the rest of the series aren’t exactly high. But there’s a lot of season left, there are a lot of episodes left and maybe something crazy will happen on the field. The Browns haven’t won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003 and haven’t swept the Steelers since 1988, so “crazy” is on the table.
In honor of Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston combining for 911 passing yards last weekend, what is the most stunning development of the season in the North in your eyes?
DeFabo: It’s Wilson. Let’s not forget that coming into this season there were serious questions about what the veteran QB could be at this stage in his career, especially after two tumultuous seasons in Denver. It’s not just the media that had doubts. Wilson might not even be in Pittsburgh had another team offered a two-year deal. Plus, the fact that the Steelers traded for Justin Fields suggests that even the team itself wanted to have a good backup plan. Like everyone else, I figured Wilson would be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. He’s been more than that. He’s been a revelation. Wilson’s moon ball has unlocked George Pickens’ enormous potential and the QB’s veteran prowess has allowed the Steelers to check into the right play at the line of scrimmage, something that was evident on numerous occasions against the Bengals. The conventional thinking was that if Tomlin could get the Steelers to the playoffs with Pickett/Mitch Trubisky/Mason Rudolph last season, the coach should be able to do it again with Wilson. But because of how Wilson has played, the ceiling for this team looks much higher than just another first-round flameout.
Zrebiec: It has to be the Bengals forgetting how to win and specifically forgetting how to play defense, doesn’t it? For the Bengals to be 4-8 with their four wins coming against teams that currently sit in last place despite the seasons Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are having, that’s hard to comprehend. I picked them to win the division and up until their loss to Pittsburgh Sunday, I still liked their chances to get hot, make the playoffs and be the team that the other division winners didn’t want to see in the wild-card round. But they’ve probably run out of time.
Dehner Jr: The Bengals’ essentially being eliminated with five weeks left is an obvious answer here, but I’ll tangent slightly off of that. How about the fact Justin Tucker and Evan McPherson, arguably two of the best kickers in the NFL entering the season, would be among the chief reasons for the Ravens’ and Bengals’ disappointments? McPherson and Tucker are a combined 15 of 29 from 40-plus this season. Just barely over 50 percent? For his career from 40-plus, Tucker hit 81 percent. McPherson didn’t miss a single kick inside 50 last year and was 77 percent from 50-plus for his career. Yet, in every big moment, from any kind of distance, they are a coin flip. I would have lost a lot of coins at the beginning of the season betting on those downfalls.
Jackson: It has to be Wilson going from the inactive list over the season’s first month-plus to playing a little like it’s 2016 again, doesn’t it? I’m not stunned that the Browns were more pretenders than contenders, but I am surprised they’re THIS bad. Same for the Bengals, who were my pick to win the division. In picking one, though, I think you have to point to the current state of the Steelers’ offense and the chance the Steelers have this weekend to extend their division lead headed to the home stretch.
Prediction time: Who you got for the Browns-Steelers rematch? And with the Ravens on bye, all eyes will be on the worst defensive matchup in the history of MNF between the Bengals and Cowboys. At least there will be a Simpsons simulcast to ease the pain.
DeFabo: I chirped Browns fans a bit last week when I said they’d return to mediocrity. (Sorry guys, had to get you a little fired up in the comments). I’ll admit, though, Winston has been much better than mediocre. He’s a gunslinger who may force the Steelers to win a shootout. At Acrisure Stadium, I like the Steelers to win, but they’re going to capitalize when Winston takes chances downfield. I’ll say Steelers 31, Browns 27.
The Bengals’ offense should have a field day against a suspect Dallas defense. I like them to snap the three-game skid.
Zrebiec: The Browns are a dangerous team. That’s become clear. However, they rarely ever win in Pittsburgh and as unpredictable as the NFL is every week, I can’t come to terms with them sweeping the Steelers. I think the Steelers dominate the second half and pull away. The only group you can feel good about Monday night is the Bengals offense. Burrow and company should put up a big number on the Cowboys and win.
Dehner Jr.: The Winston show will have me locked into Browns-Steelers, but even after winning two weeks ago, I don’t see a repeat performance against a Pittsburgh team living off turnovers against a quarterback with a penchant for making them. As for the Bengals, they meet their NFC counterparts who have allowed at least 20 points in seven straight games. I’ll say they finally break back into the win column against the Cowboys and Burrow throws for 400. There’s as little confidence as you can have in that prediction because Cooper Rush matching 400 in a 38-35 Dallas win would be on brand for this year.
Jackson: Last week, I picked the Bengals to win big, the Ravens to win big and the Browns to play a low-scoring snoozer in Denver. So what do I know? Well, I know the Browns believe they can win this game and Jerry Jeudy believes the Steelers can’t cover him. I look for another close one to be clinched by the home team on a Winston interception. I think the Bengals will win something like 35-31 with one more big Burrow game. Not a wild take, but the only reasonable one here. If it comes down to a Cade York field goal, Bengals fans brave enough to be awake and watching shouldn’t be too comfortable.
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(Top photo: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
