Vikings-Falcons preview, predictions: Can Minnesota spoil Kirk Cousins' return?

The Minnesota Vikings could clinch a playoff berth this weekend — if several things go right.

Beat the Atlanta Falcons, and they’ll need the Arizona Cardinals to lose and the Los Angeles Rams to lose or tie. Tie the Falcons, and Minnesota will need the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Rams to lose. These scenarios require some mental gymnastics, but the point is this: For the Vikings to clinch, they must win (or tie).

Doing that would entail ruining Kirk Cousins’ return. How likely is that? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for their weekly game preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: Kirk Cousins’ ability to move. The tape makes it pretty clear: He doesn’t look comfortable. Handing the ball off from under center feels like a chore. Deep play-action shots take too long. When defensive linemen create a push, especially on the interior, he squirms. That’s led to some interceptions. He claims he’s healthy, but I don’t buy it. Resting or taking more time to heal would (and would have) opened the door to Michael Penix playing, and if Penix were to play well, who knows what Cousins’ future would be? His turnover-worthy play rate hovered around 2.6 percent during his six years in Minnesota. This year, it’s up to 4.6 percent. That does not just happen randomly.

Krawczynski: Kirko Chainz. There are times I like to get cute and give you something unexpected, but c’mon. Who isn’t going to be watching Cousins after you spent six years cheering and cursing him in purple? He returns at a low point, coming off a four-interception game and with some semi-legitimate talk that his job may be in jeopardy. Thinking back on it, why are we surprised that he’s had an up-and-down season? He’s 36 years old and coming off Achilles surgery. When he left, I was concerned about what the Vikings were going to do at the position. But I didn’t blame them one bit for not matching Atlanta’s bonkers offer for him. I’m sure Cousins will have some emotions coming back to U.S. Bank Stadium. I truly believe that he loved it here and wanted to finish his career here. But I’m also sure he will want to stick it to the guys who said, “Thanks, but no thanks.” And the Vikings are only too happy with how things have gone in his absence. That’s great theater.

Shirtless Kirk Cousins getting the crowd FIRED UP! #Skol pic.twitter.com/leutZCG8nY

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 1, 2024

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Bijan Robinson. The Vikings loved him ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s everything you’d want in an offensive skill player. He runs physically. He has the vision to press the edge, then slice back toward the inside. He catches passes out of the backfield. He can line up out wide. It’s fun to consider how coach Kevin O’Connell would’ve used him, but now the Vikings must stop him. The Falcons have one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the NFL. Meanwhile, Minnesota has the most effective run defense in the NFL. Limit Robinson and Atlanta will find itself in third-and-long situations. Only six teams have worse conversion rates on third-and-long than Atlanta. Keeping the Falcons at bay on early downs will be key if the Vikings hope to post another dominant defensive performance.

Krawczynski: A Cousins revenge game. You will all laugh because he was terrible last week and Sam Darnold has been slingin’ it lately. There will be a haughtiness in the building when the game begins on Sunday, with Vikings fans celebrating their stroke of genius to let Cousins leave and believing it’s proof he was the one holding them back all along. That may even be true in some respects. But we’ve seen Cousins air it out a few times this season. And when we last saw the Vikings defense, Kyler Murray and Trey McBride were boat racing them until the head coach got a case of cold feet on fourth down. The Minnesota run defense is too good to let Bijan go crazy, so the only scenario I see is Cousins locking in against his former team and pulling a rabbit out of his hat.

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Most interesting matchup

Lewis: The Falcons pass rush versus the Vikings offensive line. Atlanta has the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL. When the Falcons rush four defenders, their pressure rate becomes the worst. With the way teams try to defend superstar receiver Justin Jefferson, it often becomes difficult for them to bring exotic pressures. It’s a simple math problem: To add numbers to the blitz, you have to remove defenders from coverage. The interior of the Minnesota offensive line has not been perfect, but it’s been mostly solid in pass protection. If Atlanta cannot generate pressure, the Vikings’ deep route concepts should be able to develop, and Darnold should have the appropriate amount of time to dish the ball downfield.

Krawczynski: The Vikings DBs versus Drake London. The Falcons receiver is a stud, and with Stephon Gilmore banged up, there could be opportunities for him to have a big game on Sunday. Brian Flores will no doubt try to turn up the heat on Cousins, who has not looked very mobile, to take some pressure off of his thin secondary. If London breaks out, it could loosen up the Vikings defense for Robinson in the running game as well. Keeping London in check and Cousins out of rhythm will be key to their efforts.

Kirk finds Drake London in the end zone!

📺: #ATLvsCAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/q5wK4x7Sbq

— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: Sam Darnold’s future. Last year at this time, the page was already turning on the future at quarterback. This time around, the focus is — and should be — on the present and what the 2024 Vikings can accomplish. But the quarterback situation still warrants discussion. Darnold has had a phenomenal season, especially of late, charting the Vikings to late-game victories. His arm talent and mobility are undeniable. Can he continue this production in meaningful games down the stretch? And if so, how financially aggressive will another team get in trying to secure his services? The Vikings could franchise tag Darnold, but even that would require the Vikings to believe Darnold is in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks. That would require further consistency well into the playoffs.

Krawczynski: Does Cousins even have a legacy in Minnesota? He was here for a relatively long time. Until the Achilles, he was ultra-durable and seemed to be in full command of the offense at Lambeau Field before he went down. But there was very little in the way of playoff success. He threw behind the sticks an awful lot. But I also respected the way he grew into his position as a leader of this team. When he first came in, it was so awkward. The fit with Mike Zimmer was poor, and Cousins seemed to be trying too hard to be something he was not. As O’Connell came in and Cousins racked up more experience, he seemed to get more comfortable in his own skin. He poked fun at himself for his dad style, wore the chains to get laughs from his teammates and earned a strong backing from the team in the locker room. Who knows what would’ve happened had he not gotten injured against the Packers? Ultimately, though, it was probably best for the Vikings to move on and look for someone who might just be capable of going all the way.

How these teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 27, Falcons 20. Jessie Bates’ ball-hawking ability is worrisome. Do not underestimate Falcons receivers Darnell Mooney or Ray-Ray McCloud III. Still, to me, the only thing getting in the way of a Vikings victory here would be silly turnovers. If the Falcons play split-safety coverage, I expect a big day from Aaron Jones. If they don’t, look out for No. 18.

Krawczynski: Vikings 26, Falcons 13. Cousins not being able to move against this pass rush is not ideal for Atlanta. The Falcons have lost three straight and seem to be teetering on the brink of collapse. I don’t see this game being particularly close.

(Photo of Shaquill Griffin: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)