Bears mailbag: Thomas Brown's chances to stay? Trade for a coach? Week 14 picks

6 December 2024Last Update :
Bears mailbag: Thomas Brown's chances to stay? Trade for a coach? Week 14 picks

NFL players and coaches are wired differently. That’s why they’ve reached the pinnacle of their professions.

It’s not always as hard as we might think for them to go about their business day in and day out, even as the most jaw-dropping losses pile up.

That’s probably what made the postgame reaction to the Thanksgiving loss so noteworthy. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson had had enough. And he wasn’t alone. The same messaging wasn’t working.

Days after the Bears fired head coach Matt Eberflus, we heard players and coaches echo a cognitive dissonance: there’s a game Sunday, but their head coach was just fired. Usually when that happens in Halas Hall, we get player reaction as they’re packing up their lockers to head home for the offseason.

“Obviously we’re human,” linebacker T.J. Edwards said. “It affects you. But at the end of the day, you come in here and get back right to work. You wish him well and you can cross paths again, you never know, but we’ve got a job to do. Got to keep our focus the main thing and find a way to win.”

“It’s not hard to stay locked in, I would say,” tight end Cole Kmet said. “Just a lot of emotions to it. I’m still going to go about my process throughout the week and do what I do, but it’s hard when you take in the human side of it, the emotions to it. It’s a lot to deal with.”

Players and coaches certainly seem energized by interim head coach Thomas Brown. His style is quite different from Eberflus. On Sunday, we’ll see what that means as he is the head coach in the NFL for the first time in his career, but one can see how players, who are wrapping their heads around the events of the past week and month, will respond.

“Life isn’t guaranteed, this game isn’t guaranteed,” Brown said Wednesday. “It’s a privilege to be here, so I want us to maximize it every single day in the building. And when we have an opportunity to excel on game day, go cut it loose, man. Play with no fear.”

Now, on to your questions.

Hey, Kevin. What, if anything, would Thomas Brown have to do to garner serious consideration as the next head coach? He has shown a rapport with the players, has helped Caleb Williams and the offense show promise over the past few games and has shown an ability to speak well at the podium. I’m not indicating he would be the best candidate, but it feels like he’s already at a disadvantage given the expectations at Kevin Warren and Ryan Poles’ level to get it right. — John V.

The award for the most popular question this week is some semblance of, what would it take for Brown to become the permanent head coach.

Here’s one advantage Brown does have — he’s the one with a five-game audition, not the outside candidates. Control what you can control, right? Well, Brown is in the driver’s seat in that regard. If the wins come and Williams shows growth and the team responds well to Brown’s messaging, it’ll be a proof of concept that other candidates can’t present.

One challenge is the schedule because while the Bears are hanging their hat on being close against really good divisional teams, promoting someone to head coach after a 2-3 or 1-4 stretch just because they played hard and kept it close will not go over well in a city that hasn’t seen a playoff win in nearly 14 years.

Poles and Warren weren’t the ones to hire Brown. Warren called the coaching search a decision that will “set the trajectory of the franchise over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years.” That mindset might not reflect promoting an interim head coach instead of making a splash hire. But it’s about making the right hire.

Brown should be considered regardless — barring some Eberflus-like collapse over the next month — but if the team wins and ends the season with a lot of hope for 2025, that should very much benefit his chances. The question then would be, how much will it matter if the front office already has someone else in mind? How much will five games matter when his resume isn’t what the 2025 (and beyond) Bears need?

Kevin, what can we expect from Eric Washington as a defensive play caller? Similar scheme, obviously, but more blitzing, more man coverage? — Andy S.

Defensive end DeMarcus Walker seemed to light up when asked about Washington this week.

“Coach E definitely, he’s been in this situation before. I’m very confident in how he calls plays,” he said.

What that looks like, we won’t really know until Sunday afternoon. If we want to use the 2018 Panthers as a blueprint, they blitzed the fourth most in the league, per TruMedia. The Bears rank 20th. It could start there. I’ll be interested to see if he mixes in some man coverage more often. The Bears’ cornerbacks are certainly capable.

I did ask Washington about his general defensive philosophy.

“It’s gonna be led by our players,” he said. “It’s gonna be led by their awareness, their physicality, their speed, their violence and just making sure that there’s clarity. There can’t be any ambiguity on defense and then go out and make the kind of plays and play with the assertiveness that we want to play with.”

Kevin, what are your thoughts on the Bears trading for a coach? You would hate to give up the draft capital, but if possible someone like Kyle Shanahan would be quite the get. Just imagine what it would do for Caleb Williams’ career. Also, it would eliminate any bad choices that Warren and Poles might sign, which has been a perpetual problem for the Bears. — Timothy S.

A trade for a head coach is a once-in-a-few-decades event. That doesn’t mean the Bears shouldn’t consider it.

In my story earlier this week about “unprecedented” head-coach hires, I mentioned the possibility, going off what a league source told me about his perception, that the Bears should operate under the strategy of “go get what you want.”

One of our edicts in journalism is, “There’s no harm in calling.” Maybe 49ers owner Jed York hangs up on Warren within seconds, but so what? As for the cost, would anyone really care if the Bears didn’t have a first-rounder the next two years if a high-caliber head coach was working with Williams and Rome Odunze?

It’s extremely unlikely, but it should be on the table.

Keenan Allen has been playing better lately. What do you think are the chances he is on the team next year? Would the Bears receive a compensatory pick if he left in free agency? Will the Bears receive a compensatory pick for Darnell Mooney signing with Atlanta last year? — Phillip K.

Allen has 18 catches for 200 yards and three touchdowns in the past three games. He made some big-time plays in the comeback attempt in Detroit. He also turns 33 in April.

The six-time Pro Bowler certainly has still been impactful, but he’s also battled a foot injury since the end of training camp, one that cost him two games. With Odunze entering Year 2, the question facing Poles would be, is it worth it for a pretty expensive one-year deal for Allen, or using the draft or free agency to get a younger wideout?

If Allen continues to be a reliable target for Williams, it’s worth considering re-signing him, and Allen did say Thursday that he wants to return. It probably would have to be at the Bears’ price, as they have bigger needs to address in the trenches.

One fun tidbit I wanted to include about Allen is how he’s assumed a bit of a coaching role over the past three weeks. Before Chris Beatty got his bump to interim offensive coordinator this week, he had been handling the passing-game coordinator duties after Thomas Brown took over play calling.

“Keenan is the smartest player I’ve ever seen,” Beatty said, and the two worked together in L.A. “What he has done over the last three weeks since the initial change was he’s been my conduit for those guys. He runs the meeting in between while they’re doing the special teams. He gets all the offensive skill in there and does a meeting. He knows how I want it to look. Those guys have been joking that he’s saying my sayings, which I’m good with.”

Should Allen sign elsewhere as a free agent, he would factor in the Bears’ compensatory pick formula, but remember, they have to lose more “compensatory free agents” than sign. Guard Teven Jenkins, center Coleman Shelton and edge rusher Darrell Taylor could all be part of that conversation, but it ultimately will depend on how many free agents the Bears sign. They have got the cap space to be aggressive.

Nick Korte does the best job projecting comp picks at Over the Cap — the NFL keeps the formula secret. The Bears did lose two compensatory free agents, Mooney and Justin Jones, but because they signed Gerald Everett and D’Andre Swift, they are not projected to get a comp pick in 2025.

I’m really curious how much stock we should be putting in the Trace Armstrong business. What sort of/how much pull does he actually have in the search and selection of coaches and other staff? Is this something you guys are going to actually ask Bears brass about? — Vince M.

The coaching community only has so many agents, and Armstrong — a former Bear — is one of the few. I don’t think it’s a stretch to assume there’s a comfort level between Armstrong and the team that drafted him in 1989. He also happens to represent highly sought-after coordinators.

We probably wouldn’t hear complaints about the Bears hiring Armstrong clients had they gotten Kevin O’Connell or Matt LaFleur. No one complains that the Chiefs’ power trio of general manager Brett Veach, head coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo have the same agent (Bob LaMonte) because they win. But the Bears don’t and have now fired multiple head coaches and offensive coordinators who had Armstrong as their representation. If anything, maybe they need to be more wary of pairing a coordinator with a head coach who has the same agent.

A reporter did try to ask Warren and Poles about Armstrong when Monday’s news conference was ending. As I wrote earlier this week, the Bears’ decision-makers need to be prepared for questions about the connection should they hire another Armstrong client — even if he is the right hire.

Bears-49ers fun facts

• The 49ers lead the all-time series 35-33-1, with a 22-14 advantage at home.

• The Bears won the Levi’s Stadium opener in 2014, 28-20. They also won in 2018, their most recent trip there, 14-9.

• Matt Eberflus’ first game as head coach came against the 49ers, a 19-10 Bears win in heavy rain in Week 1 of 2022 at Soldier Field.

• No team has won back-to-back games in the series since the 49ers won in 2009 and then 2012. That followed up a Bears three-game winning streak.

• The Bears have lost 19 road Sunday games in a row dating to Dec. 26, 2021, a 25-24 win in Seattle. They are on their second head coach since that win. Only eight of those 19 losses were within seven points.

Game picks: Bears (+3.5) at 49ers, 3:25 p.m. CT on Fox

Kevin Fishbain: 49ers 25, Bears 24

(10-2 straight up, 5-7 against the spread)

The interim bump will get the Bears a cover, but I’m just not ready to give them a Sunday road win against the 49ers. Yes, this isn’t your older cousin’s Niners team. They’ve been a mess. But they still have Kyle Shanahan and more to play for with the NFC West up for grabs. I’d expect to see more promising signs from Caleb Williams, but any big change is bound to have its hiccups, too.

Adam Jahns: Bears 24, 49ers 20

(8-4, 7-5)

I should know better. But it’s been a tough season for the 49ers, too. The chemistry between Thomas Brown and Williams works against another good defense. And this time, the Bears defense makes enough plays.

Dan Pompei: Bears 23, 49ers 21

(7-5, 3-9)

The Bears could have some kind of unreasonable feel-good after almost winning against the Lions, Vikings and Packers. And if they are capable of having good energy, they will have it Sunday because they want to rally behind their new head coach. The 49ers are hurting, reeling and vulnerable.

Jon Greenberg: Bears 27, 49ers 23

(6-6, 6-6)

Lagunitas (I originally wrote Anchor Steam, but I don’t believe it’s reopened yet) for everyone because the Bears’ run of dry Sundays is ending in San Francisco. I’m writing this blind as to what Fishbain has mentioned so far, but I’m guessing he wrote about the fact that the Bears haven’t won a true Sunday road game since Matt Nagy was the coach, back in December 2021. It’s the ultimate “insult stat” of Eberflus’ time here. The Niners are falling apart and maybe they use this game as a springboard back to respectability. Or the Bears, freed from the Eberflus speculation, play fast and physical and end their six-game losing streak. (I also made this pick on Thursday morning, so if the injury report goes the wrong way and they get slaughtered, you never saw this guess.)

Matt Barrows (49ers beat writer): 49ers 24, Bears 20

The 49ers’ most lopsided wins this season have come against the three-win Jets and Patriots. So they should cruise against the four-win Bears, right? Well, the 49ers definitely aren’t what they were in 2023 or even in the first half this season when they faced the Jets and Pats. The run defense in particular has been weak with their last two opponents finishing with 169 and 220 rushing yards. I think the 49ers, still alive in the division hunt, eke this one out, but the Bears have a clear path to victory. That path: on the ground.

(Top photo: Daniel Bartel / Imagn Images)