Welcome back for the final week of regular season fantasy football speculation. Congratulations for making it this far! As always, I use a patented, data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners … today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, with the goal of identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then, for all the last-minute managers on the go, I include a section at the bottom of the column — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals (courtesy of TruMedia). In searching for a fantasy quarterback, we need volume, of course, but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s on to charting EPA/attempt and NextGen Stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (Images below represent the last six weeks)
Before digging through our speculative QB bargain bin, please ensure Anthony Richardson, Drake Maye and Jameis Winston are no longer available. OK, people, this is it. Somehow I managed to not only survive recommending Bryce Young (QB7) and Adam Thielen (WR5), they actually dragged me across last week’s fantasy finish line. What a world. And as much as I’ve personally come around on Young of late, I’m smashing the eject button this weekend versus Philly — it could get ugly. Who better to play the proper encore than the ascendant Will Levis (ducks)? I know, I know. I’ve watched the tape and he’s definitely improved (ducks again). And best of all, Jacksonville, the league’s worst secondary, is next up on the schedule (and an almost equally generous Bengals pass defense in Week 15). Still far from perfect because of the sacks, Levis looks every bit a fantasy QB1 since returning — we could definitely do worse…
Among all 32 starters since Week 10:
- +0.26 EPA/Attempt, 8th (Better than Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts)
- 101.4 Passer Rating, 8th (Better than Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, and Justin Herbert)
- 8.3 Yards/Attempt, 4th (Better than Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow)
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the mainstream headliners — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Isaac Guerendo, Isiah Pacheco, Gus Edwards, and Zach Charbonnet have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved successful by pivoting away from the lowest-hanging fruit — total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ball carriers showing top-tier efficiency in fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize him as a speculative add.
Available RBs w/+40.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 65.0% Touch/Snap
- Jonathon Brooks, CAR — 57.9% Touch/Snap
- Trey Benson, ARI — 54.3% Touch/Snap
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 50.9% Touch/Snap
- Jaylen Wright, MIA — 45.0% Touch/Snap
- Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS — 44.1% Touch/Snap
- Sincere McCormick, LV — 43.2% Touch/Snap
Available RBs w/+0.35 Fantasy Points Per Snap (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS — 0.59 FPS/Snap
- Jonathon Brooks, CAR — 0.41 FPS/Snap
- Trey Benson, ARI — 0.41 FPS/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 0.39 FPS/Snap
- Sincere McCormick, LV — 0.37 FPS/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.36 FPS/Snap
I can’t believe after all 32 teams played last weekend, we have to try and navigate a fantasy playoff berth without Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor or Rhamondre Stevenson (groan). Before you start loading up your bench with handcuffs for a playoff run, check the latest practice reports out of Chicago. If Ameer Abdullah taught us anything two weeks ago, it’s that opportunity is king. With quality snaps going at such a premium, it’s worth taking an early free stab for the big payoff. Roschon Johnson suffered a nasty concussion in Week 13, logged a DNP Wednesday and Thursday, and feels like a longshot to play. Now, D’Andre Swift is reported to have suffered a quadriceps injury, which put his Week 14 status in jeopardy — he missed practice Thursday.. If neither Bears backs can suit up Sunday, there’s only one other player on the roster with a backfield touch this season — Travis Homer. I know, I know, but fantasy beggars can’t be choosers.
Combining skill set, contextual environment, schedule, and potential workload in case of injury, I ranked my favorite down-the-stretch RB stashes.
- Braelon Allen, NYJ (Breece Hall missed practice again. Although he did wind up playing last week, the chance of that repeating takes a hit after another loss to SEA.)
- Trey Benson, ARI
- Ray Davis, BUF
- Tyler Allgeier, ATL
- Jaylen Warren, PIT
- Emanuel Wilson, GB
- Tyjae Spears, TEN
- Blake Corum, LAR
- Khalil Herbert, CIN
- Justice Hill, BAL
- Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN
- Tank Bigsby, JAX
Wide Receivers
Like free agent RBs, make sure this week’s top WR adds Jerry Jeudy, Adam Thielen and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine already belong to a squad. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — which is precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So, let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above-average amount of looks while doing it.
Available WRs w/ +15 Routes Run Per Game, +16% Targets Per Route, +0.25 Fantasy Points Per Route (Past 4 Games)
- David Moore, CAR — 35.3 Rte/Gm, 21.7% TPPR, 0.31 FPS/Rte
- Alec Pierce, IND — 26.8 Rte/Gm, 19.6% TPPR, 0.40 FPS/Rte
- Kendrick Bourne, NE — 24.7 Rte/Gm, 17.6% TPPR, 0.43 FPS/Rte
- Curtis Samuel, BUF — 24.3 Rte/Gm, 19.2% TPPR, 0.34 FPS/Rte
- Brandin Cooks, DAL — 20.0 Rte/Gm, 35.0% TPPR, 0.53 FPS/Rte
- Calvin Austin III, PIT — 19.8 Rte/Gm, 16.5% TPPR, 0.41 FPS/Rte
- Troy Franklin, DEN — 18.8 Rte/Gm, 18.7% TPPR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey, DEN — 15.5 Rte/Gm, 16.1% TPPR, 0.35 FPS/Rte
Speculating on wideouts comes through again, woohoo! Adam Thielen went off for us last weekend (8-99-1) and almost had a second score to really drive the call home. Now that he headlined everyone else’s waiver articles, it’s time to move on and I’m sad to report it’s pretty bad out there. Again, the scheduling nightmare rears its ugly head — Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, and Khalil Shakir will all be desperately missed in must-win spots.
With so few places to turn, I’m holding my nose to stream Tampa Bay’s Sterling Shepard. The veteran WR has overtaken Trey Palmer and rookie Jalen McMillan in the two weeks since the Bucs’ bye (image below). Plus, Baker Mayfield has played well, the weather should be nice, and they’ll face a pretty leaky Raiders secondary. I got nowhere else to go!
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top adds Pat Freiermuth and Will Dissly aren’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism — which may be an exercise in futility. But there’s no retreat or surrender in these fantasy streets.
TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +6.5 Air Yards Per Target (Past 4 Games)
- Juwan Johnson, NO — 15.7% Team Tar, 6.9 AY/Tar
- Cole Kmet, CHI — 14.3% Team Tar, 7.7 AY/Tar
- Luke Schoonmaker, DAL — 13.9% Team Tar, 6.5 AY/Tar
- Austin Hooper, NE — 12.6% Team Tar, 8.9 AY/Tar
- Mike Gesicki, CIN — 11.7% Team Tar, 9.0 AY/Tar
- Noah Gray, KC — 11.2% Team Tar, 7.5 AY/Tar
- Tommy Tremble, CAR — 10.1% Team Tar, 6.8 AY/Tar
Week 14 Sunday Streaming Service
- QB — Will Levis, TEN vs JAX
- RB — Braelon Allen, NYJ at MIA
- WR — Sterling Shepherd, TB vs LV
- WR — Tyler Boyd, TEN vs JAX
- TE — Luke Schoonmaker, DAL vs CIN
- FLEX — Juwan Johnson, NO at NYG
- DST — Titans vs JAX
(Top photo of Will Levis: Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
