It remains to be seen what the domino effect of Tyler Seguin’s long-term injury will be on one of the NHL’s top Stanley Cup contenders.
In all likelihood, it will have trade deadline implications later in the season — not just for the Dallas Stars, who suddenly may have significant cap dollars to spend, but for fellow Western Conference contenders now worried what two-time-reigning GM of the Year winner Jim Nill might do with that cap money.
More on that in a moment.
But first, a word on Seguin, who had hip surgery Thursday, the team announcing earlier this week he’s out four to six months.
Seguin was playing some of the best hockey of his career (third in team scoring with 20 points in 19 games), and regardless of what comes of this potentially trade-wise, the Stars would much rather have the 32-year-old forward still in their lineup.
“It’s always hard to lose a player like that,” Nill told The Athletic over the phone Thursday. “He’s a big part of our team, and to witness the maturing of Tyler the last five, six years, he’s really grown into becoming one of the leaders of our team. He’s changed his game. His line with (Matt) Duchene and (Mason) Marchment has been one of the best lines in hockey. So it’s always tough to lose somebody like that.
“But we know it’s part of the game. Injuries, you’ve got to overcome them. It’s an opportunity for somebody else.”
And if the Stars were going to lose a key player, their depth at forward, both up top and below, makes them better suited to take a hit there than anywhere else.
“We’ve got good depth,” Nill said. “Let’s see who grabs this opportunity. And then we’ll adjust from there.”
At the outset, second-year forward Logan Stankoven has jumped into Seguin’s spot on that Marchment-Duchene line.
“We’re going to give Stankoven a good run there and see where he’s at,” Nill said. “He’s a hound dog chasing a bone. He really gets on pucks, and I think that’s really going to help Matt and Mason.”
Young star Wyatt Johnston is always flexible to move within the top six, and Evgenii Dadonov is another right wing possibility. And maybe fourth-line rookie Mavrik Bourque gets a bigger opportunity down the road? There are AHL options, too.
But more than anything, the Stars also need some of their key guys to get going more consistently. Johnston, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson all have had slow starts to the season.
“We really haven’t had all four lines humming at the same time,” Nill said. “A lot of inconsistency. I want to see when this all settles in. Let’s see where we’re at.”
So it’s not just about giving internal options the first crack at filling in offensively for Seguin, but what Nill is also saying is that he wants to see more games from his current forward group and their consistency rise before deciding what exactly he may or may not have to do ahead of March 7.
“We’re only in December,” Nill said. “I’m not going to panic and try to plug a hole here. I want to see what we’ve got, where the team is at. Maybe we have other injuries and have a bigger hole. So let’s see where we’re at.”
The Stars, by the way, have not yet put Seguin on long-term injured reserve. He is on IR and remains on their active cap for now. Part of that is waiting to hear back from doctors now that Seguin has had his surgery to get another update on his timeline, just to be sure.
“I’m waiting to get that report back,” Nill said. “Let’s get Tyler in rehab. What’s the time frame for him? Is it four months no problem coming back or is it more work there and it’s five or six months? How does the rehab process go? We are early in all this.
“But you don’t want to go into LTI until you have to. We want to maximize that.”
Eventually, the Stars most likely will look to the trade market closer to March 7. They were already poised to tweak their blue line, but there might be a bigger need at forward with Seguin out. They could do both if they determine he’ll be out the rest of the regular season and put him and his $9.85 million cap hit on LTIR.
Again, though, that’s not a sure thing.
“Yes, theoretically that’s something that’s there, depending on Tyler’s time frame,” Nill said. “You know, if he’s coming back in March, then you can’t use all that $9.8 million. So that’s where it’s important not to get into LTI too quick.”
One name to monitor is New York Islanders forward Brock Nelson, who is a pending unrestricted free agent. He’s also likely to interest the Stars’ Central Division rivals, the Minnesota Wild. And he also might not be available. The Islanders could still surge into playoff position, and regardless of that, GM Lou Lamoriello doesn’t always sell off pending UFAs.
My impression is that there haven’t been meaningful extension talks between Nelson’s camp and the Isles, though, and that Nelson will likely hit the July 1 UFA market.
If he’s available closer to March 7, I could see both the Stars and Wild and a few other contenders vie for the Team USA 4 Nations forward, with Dallas having the upper hand based on Seguin’s potential LTIR cap dollars. (The Wild could also have interest in Nelson on July 1 as a free agent.)
Early days still in all of this. But in the bigger picture of the Western Conference Stanley Cup playoff chase, file this whole situation away.
The Stars may have $9.85 million in cap dollars to spend in the second half, and they have a GM who sure isn’t shy to make trades.
(Top photo: Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)
