ATLANTA — The Atlanta Braves made no major moves until late on the last full day of the 2022 Winter Meetings at San Diego when they traded for reliever Joe Jiménez. But they made the first big move at last year’s meetings in Nashville by trading for outfielder Jarred Kelenic on Sunday night, when many meeting attendees were just getting settled in or still en route to Music City.
So, good luck trying to figure out what always unpredictable Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves president of baseball operations and general manager, will have up his sleeve when the annual Winter Meetings begin Sunday night at the Hilton Anatole near downtown Dallas. They run through Wednesday.
What we do know is that the Braves have more glaring needs this year than last winter, when they already had signed pitcher Reynaldo López in late November and would trade for pitcher Chris Sale a few days after Christmas. Those two moves yielded far better first-year results than the Kelenic trade did for Atlanta.
This time, the Braves need to add a proven middle-rotation-or-better starting pitcher assuming they don’t re-sign free agent Max Fried, since strikeout machine Spencer Strider is returning from April 2024 internal-brace elbow surgery and is not expected to be ready before May. They might also need to add a back-end-of-the-rotation starter if they don’t re-sign 41-year-old free agent Charlie Morton and aren’t comfortable with in-house options or depth at fifth starter.
Atlanta also needs to add at least one set-up reliever, since the aforementioned Jiménez is expected to miss much and possibly all of the 2025 season, after knee surgery five weeks ago that revealed a worse cartilage injury than expected. Lefty set-up man A.J. Minter is a free agent, too, and while the Braves could re-sign him, it’s uncertain if he’ll be ready or to what effectiveness after season-ending left-hip surgery in August.
Last but not least, the Braves need to add a solid corner outfielder, because 2023 MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., who had season-ending knee surgery after tearing his left ACL in late May, will be brought back on a more cautious schedule this time than after tearing his right ACL in 2021. Acuña, like Strider, isn’t expected back before May and could be out until closer to June.
The need for an outfielder is two-fold since the Braves might have to consider replacing or at least platooning Kelenic if he struggles again as he did for much of his first season in Atlanta. Anthopoulos has been known for making bold moves, but trading Kelenic seems unlikely just one year after the Braves took on more than $15 million in bad contracts to acquire five years of control of the former Mariners top prospect, who showed flashes of five-tool talent in 2024. But only flashes.
The Braves have made no major additions this winter, their biggest moves being by subtraction: Outfielder/DH Jorge Soler was traded to the Angels and veteran free-agent catcher Travis d’Arnaud signed with the Angels after being non-tendered by the Braves, a cost-cutting move to free up cash they’ll need to fill those needs, preferably without going over the $241 million luxury-tax threshold.
Their projected luxury-tax payroll currently stands at about $217 million according to FanGraphs RosterResource, and for any dollar the Braves go over $241 million they would be taxed at a 50 percent overage, since this would be the third consecutive year they’ve gone over the luxury-tax threshold. It won’t stop them from making necessary moves and possibly going a little over $241 million but don’t expect the Braves to blow past that number this winter, especially since Anthopoulos likes to budget for midseason additions at the trade deadline.
Since the Braves can’t fill all their needs through free agency without going well over the luxury-tax threshold — unless they trade away some other significant salaries first — there’s a good chance they fill at least one need through a trade this winter, perhaps within the next week.
As teams that have inquired with the Braves have learned, top pitching prospect Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta’s first-round pick in 2023, is off-limits. Catcher Drake Baldwin, the Braves’ top position-player prospect, and pitcher Cam Caminiti, their 2024 first-rounder, also seem all but untouchable. Among tradeable prospects who could interest other teams are pitchers AJ Smith-Shawver and Drue Hackenberg and shortstop Nacho Alvarez.
The Braves’ goals in 2025 will start with reclaiming the National League East title after their streak of six in a row was ended by the Phillies in an injury-filled Atlanta season. They’ll aim to return to the World Series, too, but don’t expect the Braves to be as vocal about it as they were last spring when Strider and several others proclaimed “World Series or bust” after Atlanta had lost to the Phillies in the NLDS in 2022 and again in 2023.
Those goals were undermined by injuries literally from Opening Day — catcher Sean Murphy, strained oblique — through their brief 2024 postseason when Cy Young winner Sale missed the Wild Card Series sweep at the hands of the Padres in San Diego. In between, the Braves lost ace Strider in April, Acuña in May, third baseman Austin Riley (hand fracture) in August, and Ozzie Albies (wrist fracture) for more than two months before the switch-hitting second baseman returned in late September, still unable to swing from the left side. There were many other injuries, too. Those were just the most devastating in a season that went sideways quickly for the Braves.
They will still be trying to fill in for some of those injuries when the 2025 season begins, a big reason the Braves’ to-do list at these Winter Meetings could have more urgency than it has in some recent years.
(Top photo of Spencer Strider: Gerald Herbert / Associated Press)
