College football’s conference championship games are complete. We tried our best to guess how the committee will seed the 12-team Playoff, but go easy on us. This has never been done before.
Big Ten champion Oregon and SEC champion Georgia are the obvious 1-2 seeds. Based on last week’s rankings, Mountain West champ Boise State gets the No. 3 seed, and Big 12 champ Arizona State gets the No. 4 seed. ACC champ Clemson would not get a bye and instead will likely be either the No. 11 or 12 seed.
Which could depend on whether SMU or Alabama gets the last at-large spot. It’s a coin flip, but given the Mustangs lost to Clemson on a last-second 56-yard field goal, we find it unlikely they would drop from No. 8 in the rankings to No. 12.
As for the other seeding, the best guess here is 11-1 Notre Dame moves up to the No. 5 seed, with 11-2 Texas dropping to the No. 6 seed. If so, 11-2 Penn State may fall behind 10-2 Ohio State due to their head-to-head result and land at the No. 8 seed.
As for other bowls, we feel most confident in predicting the BYU-Colorado Alamo Bowl and Miami-Iowa State Pop-Tarts Bowl. The rest of the ACC and SEC’s bowl lineups will be dictated by whether Alabama or SMU goes up to the CFP.
Friendly reminders: 1) Most non-CFP bowls do not have to select teams in order of conference standings. 2) Legacy Pac-12 teams will participate in the Pac-12’s bowl lineup this year and in 2025, not the lineups of their current leagues. That means the Alamo Bowl could have two Big 12 teams competing against one another in both years, and that scenario is virtually guaranteed this year.
Teams shaded in blue in the tables indicate the official matchup.
| Bowl/Playoff | Date | Team | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Playoff
|
Dec. 20
|
6. Texas
|
11. Clemson (ACC champ)
|
|
Playoff
|
Dec. 21
|
5. Notre Dame
|
12. SMU
|
|
Playoff
|
Dec. 21
|
7. Ohio State
|
10. Indiana
|
|
Playoff
|
Dec. 21
|
8. Penn State
|
9. Tennessee
|
|
Fiesta
|
Dec. 31
|
3. Boise State (G5 champ)
|
Texas/Clemson winner
|
|
Peach
|
Jan. 1
|
4. Arizona State (Big 12 champ)
|
Notre Dame/SMU winner
|
|
Rose
|
Jan. 1
|
1. Oregon (Big Ten champ)
|
Penn State/Tennessee winner
|
|
Sugar
|
Jan. 1
|
2. Georgia (SEC champ)
|
Ohio State/Indiana winner
|
|
Orange
|
Jan. 9
|
Quarterfinal winner
|
Quarterfinal winner
|
|
Cotton
|
Jan. 10
|
Quarterfinal winner
|
Quarterfinal winner
|
|
Championship
|
Jan. 20
|
Semifinal winner
|
Semifinal winner
|
Remaining bowls
| Bowl | Date | Team | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Bahamas
|
Jan. 4
|
Buffalo (MAC)
|
Liberty (C-USA)
|
|
Duke's Mayo
|
Jan. 3
|
Minnesota (Big Ten 6)
|
Virginia Tech (ACC 5-7)
|
|
First Responder
|
Jan. 3
|
Arkansas State (ESPN)
|
UTSA (ESPN)
|
|
Gator
|
Jan. 2
|
Duke (ACC 2-4)
|
Florida (SEC 3-8)
|
|
Texas
|
Dec. 31
|
Baylor (Big 12 4)
|
LSU (SEC 3-8)
|
|
Citrus
|
Dec. 31
|
Illinois (Big Ten 2)
|
Alabama (SEC 2)
|
|
Sun
|
Dec. 31
|
Louisville (ACC 5-7)
|
Washington (Pac-12 5)
|
|
ReliaQuest
|
Dec. 31
|
Iowa (Big Ten 3)
|
South Carolina (SEC 3-8)
|
|
Music City
|
Dec. 30
|
Nebraska (Big Ten 4)
|
Ole Miss (SEC 3-8)
|
|
Independence
|
Dec. 28
|
Army (AAC)
|
Oklahoma* (Pac-12 7)
|
|
Alamo
|
Dec. 28
|
BYU (BIg 12 2)
|
Colorado (Pac-12 2)
|
|
Military
|
Dec. 28
|
East Carolina (AAC 2)
|
Georgia Tech (ACC)
|
|
Arizona
|
Dec. 30
|
Colorado State (MWC)
|
Miami of Ohio (MAC)
|
|
Pop-Tarts
|
Dec. 28
|
Iowa State (Big 12 3)
|
Miami (ACC 2-4)
|
|
New Mexico
|
Dec. 28
|
Marshall (MWC)*
|
North Texas (ESPN)
|
|
Pinstripe
|
Dec. 28
|
Michigan (Big Ten 5)
|
Boston College (ACC 5-7)
|
|
Fenway
|
Dec. 28
|
Pittsburgh (ACC)
|
UConn (ESPN)
|
|
Vegas
|
Dec. 27
|
USC (Pac-12 4)
|
Texas A&M (SEC 3-8)
|
|
Holiday
|
Dec. 27
|
Syracuse (ACC 2-4)
|
Washington State (Pac-12 3)
|
|
Liberty
|
Dec. 27
|
Kansas State (Big 12 5)
|
Missouri (SEC 3-8)
|
|
Birmingham
|
Dec. 27
|
Vanderbilt (SEC 9)
|
NC State (ESPN)
|
|
Armed Forces
|
Dec. 27
|
TCU (Big 12 7)
|
Navy (ESPN)
|
|
68 Ventures
|
Dec. 26
|
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
|
Bowling Green* (C-USA)
|
|
Rate
|
Dec. 26
|
Rutgers (Big Ten 7)
|
Texas Tech (Big 12 6)
|
|
GameAbove
|
Dec. 26
|
Texas State (Big Ten 8)*
|
Toledo (MAC)
|
|
Hawaii
|
Dec. 24
|
San Jose State (MWC)
|
USF (ESPN)
|
|
Idaho Potato
|
Dec. 23
|
Fresno State (MWC)
|
NIU (MAC)
|
|
Myrtle Beach
|
Dec. 23
|
Coastal Carolina (ESPN)
|
North Carolina (ESPN)
|
|
Gasparilla
|
Dec. 20
|
Tulane (ESPN)
|
Arkansas (ESPN)
|
|
Cure
|
Dec. 20
|
Jacksonville State (ESPN)
|
Ohio (ESPN)
|
|
New Orleans
|
Dec. 19
|
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
|
Sam Houston (C-USA)
|
|
LA Bowl
|
Dec. 18
|
California (Pac-12 6)
|
UNLV (MWC 1)
|
|
Boca Raton
|
Dec. 18
|
Western Kentucky (ESPN)
|
James Madison (ESPN)
|
|
Frisco
|
Dec. 17
|
Memphis (ESPN)
|
West Virginia (ESPN)
|
|
Salute to Veterans
|
Dec. 14
|
South Alabama (ESPN)
|
Western Michigan (ESPN)
|
Notes: (ESPN) indicates an ESPN Events bowl. Teams can be moved between them. An asterisk (*) indicates a replacement team because a league was not able to fill all of its slots.
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic, Photos: Don Juan Moore / Getty)
