A month remains in the NFL season, but about one quarter of the league already has their eyes set on 2025. Seven teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs, and eight currently sit at three wins or lower. For those teams, the next four weeks are about building for the future as teams vie for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
With the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win over the Tennessee Titans, they have all but exited the race for the first overall draft pick. Now sitting at 3-10 after the win, Jacksonville’s odds fell from 14 percent on Dec. 6 to 2 percent after Sunday’s game.
The win now makes this a two-team race between the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. Our models have the No. 1 pick going to these two teams in a combined 74 percent of outcomes. No other team has higher than 10 percent odds to secure the first draft pick. The race is tight behind the Giants and Raiders, though. Six teams (Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville, New York Jets, Tennessee, New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers) all sit at a 3-10 record with four games left to play.
New York Giants (2-11)
A late-game Giants surge put New York in a position to tie the game on a 35-yard field goal with 11 seconds on the clock, potentially jeopardizing their spot at the top of the draft board with an overtime win. Instead, the New Orleans Saints blocked Graham Gano’s kick and actually pushed the Giants into the driver’s seat for the top overall pick.
The full week of preparation wasn’t enough to make Drew Lock (21-for-49, 227 yards, 1 INT) look like a winning quarterback, despite the Giants’ defense holding an opponent to under 300 total yards for just the third time this season. New York now faces four teams still in the playoff conversation, the sixth-hardest remaining strength of schedule in the league.
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