When the Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t won this season, it’s often been for one simple reason: Their big guys don’t score — or don’t score enough, because help from the supporting cast has been almost nonexistent.
The Leafs have dropped nine games in regulation this season. Their goal totals in those losses: 0, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 2.
Overall, this team is 0-9-1 when scoring two goals or fewer.
If the six-pack of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann — the top two lines essentially — don’t get at least two or often three goals, this team isn’t winning.
Those six players have combined for 63 of the team’s 80 goals this season. Almost 80 (!) percent. From six players.
This past weekend, the Leafs scored once against the Washington Capitals, on a goal from Tavares, and twice against the Pittsburgh Penguins, on goals from Marner and Nylander.
They lost both games.
Have a look at where the goals have come from over the last 10, starting with that 5-2 loss to the Penguins on Saturday: Nylander, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Matthews, Matthews, Knies, Minten, Tavares, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Robertson, Tanev, Knies, Marner, Nylander, Marner, Marner, Holmberg, Nylander, Minten, Marner, McMann, Knies, McMann, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, McMann.
I’ve bolded the players not named Matthews, Marner, Nylander Tavares, Knies and McMann. There are four of them: Fraser Minten, with two, and then one each from Nick Robertson, Chris Tanev and Pontus Holmberg, the latter in an empty net.
This is partly a product of coach Craig Berube’s risk-averse style, which has the Leafs scoring fewer than three goals per game for the first time in the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era.
| Season | Goals/game |
|---|---|
|
2016-17
|
3.05
|
|
2017-18
|
3.29
|
|
2018-19
|
3.49
|
|
2019-20
|
3.39
|
|
2020-21
|
3.32
|
|
2021-22
|
3.80
|
|
2022-23
|
3.39
|
|
2023-24
|
3.63
|
|
2024-25
|
2.96
|
Some of this is about injuries, which the Leafs have weathered quite well considering.
Calle Järnkrok hasn’t played all year. Max Pacioretty missed nearly a month. Max Domi and David Kämpf have each sat out the last eight.
Yet, it’s not just that.
Domi (19 games) and Kämpf (18) each had zero goals before their injuries. Pacioretty has two in his 14 games.
Consider the totals for some others:
• Robertson: two goals in 23 games
• Holmberg: one in 25
• Ryan Reaves: zero in 19
• Connor Dewar: zero in 11
• Nikita Grebenkin: zero in seven
• Alex Nylander: zero in five
• Alex Steeves: zero in four
What we’re looking at is a whole whack of bottom-six forwards who haven’t really scored at all.
And the team doesn’t get much help that way from the defence. Only 8.8 percent of the goals — four of the seven from Morgan Rielly — have come from the blue line, the fourth-worst mark in the NHL. (The Leafs were last in that department last season.)
None of this is new; it just feels more pronounced than before and worrisome for a team that’s had trouble scoring in the playoffs, especially since the big guys in particular had a lot of that trouble — the ones now seemingly responsible for even more than before.
That’s going to have to change if a deep playoff run is in the cards. The Leafs aren’t going anywhere without louder postseasons from Matthews, Marner, Nylander and, to a lesser degree, Tavares.
But can they get some more help along the way, beyond Knies and McMann?
The eventual return of some injured forwards (beyond Pacioretty, who returned Saturday) makes it at least conceivable that another line, outside of the top two, can be built to score from time to time.
Berube could build some deeper groups like:
Knies — Matthews — Marner
Pacioretty — Tavares — Nylander
McMann — Minten — Domi
Dewar — Kämpf — Lorentz
Or …
Domi — Matthews — Marner
Pacioretty — Tavares — Nylander
Knies — Minten — McMann
Dewar — Kämpf — Lorentz
That doesn’t include Järnkrok and assumes full health otherwise, not exactly a likely prospect.
Berube could help things by not guaranteeing a spot to Reaves (four goals in his last 68 games) every night and not overplaying Holmberg, who looked woefully out of place in top-six duty recently.
It remains to be seen how much more the coach’s style of offence can produce with this particular bunch.
The front office hopes to supplement the group with outside help: that centre they would like to add in a trade. They’re hopeful someone can provide some offence.
Will it be enough?
Points
1. Last season, the Leafs scored two or fewer in only 22 games. This season, it’s already happened 10 times.
2. The Leafs on the power play since Matthews returned from injury: 2-11. A potent power play can help make up for the lack of scoring from lower in the lineup.
3. Marner played a team-high 25:23 Saturday. He leads the Leafs in ice time this season and ranks fifth among all NHL forwards at 21:40 a game.
4. Things feel as tenuous as ever for Robertson. He was a healthy scratch Saturday for the fourth time this season, one night after struggling mightily, logging a season-low 9:35 against Washington. Robertson had an emphatic goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning at the end of November and looked to be building some momentum. Berube missed a chance to capitalize on that momentum by moving Robertson up in the lineup. The Leafs coach opted instead for Holmberg alongside Tavares and Marner and then even turned to Minten, a 20-year-old with fewer than 10 games of NHL experience, to play out of position at left wing over Robertson. What becomes of the 23-year-old when, or rather if, this team gets healthier? His spot with the Leafs feels like it could be in jeopardy.
5. Jake McCabe has been missed. The temporary top pair of Oliver Ekman-Larsson (standing in for McCabe) and Tanev has been much less effective than the dominant McCabe-Tanev twosome. The Leafs yielded 2.6 expected goals per 60 minutes during the Ekman-Larsson-Tanev minutes this week. That number in the McCabe-Tanev minutes: 1.6.
McCabe was leading the D in ice time before his apparent head injury.
6. Philippe Myers went from not playing at all, literally once in the first two months, to averaging 18 minutes, playing alongside Rielly, in McCabe’s absence.
In focus: Pacioretty’s offence
Of all the Leafs who haven’t scored much to this point, Pacioretty feels like the one with the most upside.
Berube had Pacioretty return from injury on a line with Matthews and Marner. Where the Leafs coach might want to consider placing him instead is back alongside Tavares and Nylander. That threesome was arguably the most effective of any group that’s played together for the Leafs all season.
The sample is just under 70 minutes, but in those minutes, the Leafs dominated, winning almost 70 percent of the expected goals. High-danger attempts were 21-10 and, crucially, the Leafs outscored teams 5-2.
Pacioretty’s physicality and smarts matched well with Tavares’ powerful game down low and Nylander’s creativity.
Pacioretty has scored only six goals in his last 61 games, dating to last season.
His track record as a scorer is well established, though. And perhaps in combining him with two highly skilled forwards (some combination of Tavares, Nylander, Matthews and Marner), with the Achilles injuries now far in the rearview mirror, he can rediscover some of that.
The Leafs could use it.
Things I think I think
The 4 Nations Face-Off feels like it could be weirdly important for Marner.
It remains to be seen how competitive and pressure-packed the games will get. Regardless, a confident performance on a big stage, on a team of stars, could be something of a springboard for Marner into the postseason.
Marner figures to play a prominent role for Team Canada, at least to start. He might be on the first line, first power play and first penalty kill. There’s a chance he’s the only forward who will be.
There will be some time between the end of the tournament and the start of the playoffs, so maybe whatever momentum is established will fade. Or maybe Marner will unlock something there — a swagger, say, that carries over into the playoffs.
This tournament arguably means more for Marner than any of the other Leafs involved and maybe any other player, period.
— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and StatHead.
(Top photo of Craig Berube: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
