Morgan Rogers (£5.1m) has been one of Fantasy Premier League’s most popular budget assets. Despite getting no attacking returns in the first four gameweeks, he has still risen in price and is owned by almost 16 per cent of managers.
If he is in your squad, you might be wondering whether to discard him or stay patient for Aston Villa’s upcoming plum fixtures. One of the most important factors behind success in FPL is the timing of buying and selling players.
So let’s consider whether you should be selling Rogers by looking at his price, performance and value, but also extending this discussion to what we should look at when deciding what to do with non-performing assets.
Setting your expectations
With Rogers, he isn’t realistically going to be the next Cole Palmer (£10.6m) — it is unlikely we will ever get another player, like Palmer at Chelsea, who started as a budget option and ended up being the highest-scoring asset in the game.
Rogers costs £5.1m and, at that price, we should only expect one return in every three to four games. A productive season for him in FPL terms could be, say, six goals and six assists.
So we should not be worried about the Villa man. He has been playing well and has been quite unfortunate not to pick up a few attacking returns already. He has had nine shots totalling an expected goals (xG) value of 0.6, as well as registering an expected assists (xA) tally of 0.4 — decent numbers when you consider his price, which also acts as an enabler to bolster other areas of your squad.
Look at the alternatives and there isn’t anyone who stands out at a similar price. You would have to move up to at least £5.5m to get some worthy replacements.
He is also getting plenty of minutes in this Villa team and although that may decrease as the Champions League heats up, it’s the same for many comparable players.
Rogers is an easy keep and his on-pitch displays and stats tell us that goals and assists will come.
Is the price right?
You have to take the following elements into account:
- Player price
- Position
- Underlying numbers
- The alternatives
- Price drops
- New information (including a change of manager or position)
When looking at premium players, such as Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) or Palmer, we should be more unforgiving. They take up a lot of budget and there are plenty of alternative options around their price points, and you can also downgrade to a cheaper player and upgrade other positions.
In most cases, the most expensive players will come good if they go through a series of blanks and, generally, we should be patient. However, changing circumstances, such as a new role in the team, lead to a drop in their underlying numbers or minutes.
Unless they consistently underperform or face a run of really tough fixtures, hold your premium assets. They are the best options in the game and blanks are inevitable for all players.
Mid-priced players, between £6.5m and £8.5m, are the most disposable. Use their spots to chase the appealing fixtures. They are not as reliable as the premium players, which means less chance of those moves backfiring.
Budget defenders and goalkeepers are where you want to make the fewest transfers. When you pick your squad at the start of the season or on a wildcard, go for solid options who are nailed on and rotate well with your other defenders. The only times you should be using transfers here are if they are injured or lose their starting place.
This is why so many managers have kept Valentin Barco (£4.0m) as it is just not worth using a transfer in such a deep position in your squad, even though the Brighton & Hove Albion defender moved on loan to Sevilla.
The same would apply to someone Harry Winks (£4.5m), who you should own as a fifth midfielder for your bench. Rogers is in this bracket, too, and unless you really need the money to upgrade elsewhere or want to restructure on a wildcard, there isn’t much upside in making transfers at these price points.
Premium defenders, such as Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.0m) or Josko Gvardiol (£6.0m), should not be safe from exiting your squad if not performing but they deserve more time than midfielders or forwards due to a lack of alternatives.
Generally, the patience a non-performing player is afforded in your team should get shorter as you move up in price points across all positions — but I would make an exception for Erling Haaland (£15.2m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.7m).
They are the best two assets in the game and their consistency means they are never really ‘out of form’. There isn’t a like-for-like player who can match them in their respective positions. Yes, you can downgrade them to free up cash for another position in your squad, but they remain among the best captaincy options in most weeks, which is a crucial factor in FPL.
They may blank a few games in a row but will continue to get minutes. The only time to sell them would be due to fixture swings and even then, you would only be without them for parts of the season.
Palmer, Saka, Son Heung-min (£10.0m) and Ollie Watkins (£8.9m), to name a few, all have other options around the same price point who are similar in level.
If a player is not getting returns but is playing well and putting up decent underlying numbers, I would heavily lean more towards keeping them unless their immediate fixtures are tough.
Every team and situation is unique in FPL, but taking the above factors into account will help you make better decisions.
(Top photo: Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images)
