If you’re treating the 4 Nations Face-Off as the store-brand Olympics, a prelude to a different event people actually care about, a dress rehearsal for all involved, an appetizer, a distraction or a waste of time, Canada’s head coach would like you to know something.
“It’ll be zero people thinking about the Olympics,” Jon Cooper told reporters on Thursday in the wake of the roster announcements for Canada, the United States, Sweden and Finland. “It’ll be all about 4 Nations. I don’t think at one time anyone is going to sit here and say this is a stepping stone for the Olympics. Now, when the tournament’s over and we’re all doing our debrief on everything that goes on, I think that maybe at that time we’ll sit here and say, this worked or this didn’t.”
“I think you take all that information in after the tournament, but we built this team to win the 4 Nations. The Olympics is still a year away.”
A year and a few months, in fact. That’s not going to stop us from thinking about it, either. Here are some Olympic-related topics that’ll be on my mind once February’s best-on-best tournament rolls around.
Canada
Will any of the goalies stake a claim?
We’ll get the goaltending question out of the way up top, and we’ll start with some credit for GM Don Sweeney, whose assessment of the situation came across as simultaneously reasonable and, uh, optimistic. Jordan Binnington and and Adin Hill both bring “high-leverage” experience to the roster, he said, which was a priority for the Team Canada front office.
“We were a lot more calm in picking the goaltenders than maybe what the outside world was viewing,” Sweeney said on Thursday. “Would you like to have access to a guy who’s on an absolute heater for the next two months? Possibly.”
Possibly? Probably? Definitely. There are systemic issues and bad luck at play here that have tied the front office’s hands — good luck finding any options that are cut-and-dried better than the ones they went with — but the end result is the single biggest variable for both this tournament and the next couple years of international hockey. Both Binnington and Hill are above-average goalies across the board, albeit narrowly in some spots. Both have had an above-average percentage of quality starts this season, per Hockey Reference. Same goes for save percentage and goals saved above expected. Both have played the best hockey of their lives during the Stanley Cup playoffs with plenty of uneven stretches mixed in elsewhere. In a word, they’re fine — and in this case, “fine” will have to be enough.
The upshot is this: Binnington and Hill both have an opportunity to put the 2026 job on lockdown, especially considering how little Devon Levi has shown in the NHL. A year from now, Canada might have Sweeney’s Guy On A Heater in the mix, but it’s tough to imagine that carrying any more weight than a solid showing in February.
Which two-way forwards emerge?
The “we’re not building an All-Star team” approach seemed to pay off a bit more readily at forward, where Canada went heavy on versatile second-liners that profile as premium bottom-sixers in a best-on-best tournament. Nobody embodies that principle quite like Anthony Cirelli, who’s having the best offensive season of his career on Tampa Bay’s second line while still providing Selke-caliber two-way play. (He really ought to be on the short list for that award, by the way — “elite defensive impacts plus more goals/60 than Aleksander Barkov, Matt Boldy and Andrei Sevechnikov” says it all.)
And while Cirelli has plenty of company in the category of skillsy, grind-capable forwards — linemate Brandon Hagel, Carolina’s Seth Jarvis, Florida’s Sam Bennett and Philadelphia’s Travis Konecny all qualify, to varying degrees — he’s the only natural center, which in some ways makes him the linchpin for the overall plan. If a Cirelli-centered fourth line clicks reliably with any combo of those guys in February, Team Canada might be able to shop for a luxury item come next winter. Are there worse things than having a player like Bennett in the press box, ready to roll if the situation calls for it? Of course. What might be better, though — and possibly necessary — is finding a slot for Connor Bedard. The search probably starts along the fourth line. They’re good players, undeniably, but Canada doesn’t need them all. Three stepping up will do.
Can they generate enough offense from the back end?
No choices invited more second-guessing than the ones Canada made along its blue line. That’s not to say the decisions were superficially wrong, either. If you’ve got access to a ready-made pair that’s led its team to the Stanley Cup and posted an actual/expected goals percentage of nearly 60 over the last three seasons, you take it. That’s Cale Makar and Devon Toews. In Alex Pietrangelo, they get an all-situations workhorse who’s won Stanley Cup championships and gold medals. Shea Theodore has been a fringe Norris Trophy candidate. Travis Sanheim, over the last few months, has gone from “fine” to “really good.” Down the list, all seven players make sense (to varying degrees).
Overall, though, it’s not a particularly dynamic group, featuring a handful of guys who aren’t currently playing their best hockey, and it’s easy to imagine that fact coming back to bite Team Canada. Evan Bouchard might not be as egregious omission as my little buddy Dom would have you believe, but he’d also make a ton of sense to bring along as the No. 7 in place of Colton Parayko — even if only as insurance. Seriously, what happens if Makar falls into the Montreal Mystery Spot? Why not roster the guy whose skillset comes closest to replicating him? And if not him, what about a true jack-of-all-trades like MacKenzie Weegar? This one, maybe more than anywhere else, feels like a spot where lessons can be learned.
United States
Who makes room for Tage Thompson?
It took a whole bunch of bad decisions to rob us of best-on-best hockey for eight years, and a full generation of NHL players has paid the price. Chris Kreider might be one of the poster boys — he should’ve played in the Olympics while he was a 50-goal scorer. Now he’s 33, and his time as an elite winger might be ending before our eyes. Just ask Chris Drury. Through it all, the U.S. still viewed him favorably enough to put him on the roster, which only seems fair.
Still, players like him, Brock Nelson and Vincent Trocheck should be under the microscope a bit, at least as it relates to the 6-foot-6 elephant in the room. Thompson would bring a level of firepower, both at five-on-five and on the power play, that very few American players (and Canadian ones, for that matter) could match. It’s a similar situation to the one Canada faces with Bouchard; how many low-floor, low-ceiling choices are too many? Thompson, it should be noted, has played some of his best hockey this season — certainly to a more significant degree than Bouchard. If that holds over the next 12 months, his case is going to be undeniable.
Is Dylan Larkin a down-the-middle answer?
There isn’t a more interesting depth chart in the tournament than what the Americans are working with at center. At the moment, they could go seven deep with Auston Matthews and Jack Eichel at the top, Jack Hughes somewhere behind them, then (in some order) Larkin, J.T. Miller, Trocheck and Nelson.
The fun, given how much sense Hughes makes playing on Matthews’ wing, probably starts on the third line. Look for Larkin to get the first crack there — and look for him to handle his business. It’s fair to wonder whether he works as the best player on a contending team; in Detroit, he fills the first part of the equation but not the second. With the U.S., there will be no such problem. Larkin makes a whole bunch of sense as the focal point for a turbo-charged third line, and if that indeed is the case, the puzzle pieces begin to slide into place around him.
Is Connor Hellebuyck definitely The Guy?
We’ll say this quietly: Hellebuyck is the best goalie of his generation, and two consecutive rough postseasons aren’t enough to change that. He won’t need to do much to solidify his status as the no-brainer No. 1 goalie for Team USA in Milan.
Still, he might need to do something. At minimum, if he’s not somewhere near best, it should mean Jake Oettinger, Jeremy Swayman or Thatcher Demko close the gap. Even if it’s only a sliver.
Sweden
Which goalie takes the inside track?
Sweden, like the U.S., has three goaltenders who’d start for Canada. Jacob Markström seems set to get the first look and we know what Linus Ullmark’s top end looks like, but don’t rule out Filip Gustavsson; with a .931 save percentage and more than 13 goals saved above average, he’s having the best NHL season of the three by a healthy margin. He’s the youngest, too. It’s not tough to imagine him getting a shot, making the most of it and holding onto the net for a while longer.
Can Erik Karlsson still dial it up?
His days as one of Sweden’s best defensemen are probably over, but the tournament could still be an indicator of what Karlsson is (or isn’t) capable of at this point in his career. Part of the reason Pittsburgh acquired him in the summer of 2023 was the possibility that his presence as a play-driver could make up for a lackluster bottom six. The results have been… mixed, let’s say, and he’s likely to be tasked with something similar in February. If he can pull it off, he’ll solve one of Sweden’s biggest issues and change that roster’s calculus moving forward.
Finland
Who opens a door for Jesperi Kotkaniemi?
That Kotkaniemi still isn’t one of Finland’s top four centers is, basically, a statement of fact. Are you taking him over Aleksander Barkov or Sebastian Aho? Are you taking him over Roope Hintz or Anton Lundell? Thought so. Still, the best version of Finland features him in the mix in some capacity. The bottom six is brutal; we’ll be watching Teuvo Teräväinen and Eetu Luostarinen to see if there’s a spot for Kotkaniemi moving forward.
Can the right side of the defense stay afloat?
More specifically, how seriously should we take a team that’s rolling out some combo of Niko Mikkola, Rasmus Ristolainen, Juuso Valimaki and Jani Hakanpää? A lot can happen between now and February 2026, but that could well be a disqualifyingly bad group.
(Top photo of Erik Karlsson and Tage Thompson: Charles LeClaire / Imagn Images and Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
