The Yankees can’t replace Juan Soto. But their pivot plan has a powerful echo

11 December 2024Last Update :
The Yankees can’t replace Juan Soto. But their pivot plan has a powerful echo

A superstar Scott Boras client, just 25 years old at the end of the regular season, was the most coveted free agent in baseball. That December, at the Winter Meetings in Dallas, he signed a record contract that rattled the industry. The player had just led his team to a deep postseason run that ended in defeat at Yankee Stadium. His departure clouded their immediate future.

All of that applied to Alex Rodriguez and the Seattle Mariners in 2000. A generation later, it’s the same story, word for word, with Juan Soto and the New York Yankees.

Back then, the Texas Rangers gave 10 years and $252 million to Rodriguez, who had 189 career homers and a .934 OPS. This time, the Mets gave 15 years and $765 million to Soto, who has 201 home runs and a .953 OPS. Owner Steve Cohen will unveil his prize at a Citi Field news conference on Thursday.

The Yankees began their pivot on Tuesday by reaching an eight-year, $218 million contract agreement with lefty Max Fried, a two-time All-Star for the Atlanta Braves. The deal formalizes what everyone in baseball expected: The Yankees will not retreat.

Though Fried is the last pitcher to win a Silver Slugger award (he batted .273 in 2021), he won’t help the Yankees lineup. But the process of replacing Soto has begun, and it’s useful to remember how the Mariners responded to losing Rodriguez: They won 116 games the next season.

“It was the perfect storm,” said Bret Boone — brother of Yankees manager Aaron Boone — who signed as a free agent to help Seattle fill the void. “We had our own expectations, and we had really good players who all happened to have career years at the same time — and by the way, nobody got hurt.”

As winning formulas go, that’s a tough one to copy. But the Mariners’ shrewd shopping put them in position for things to go right. In their first year without Rodriguez, they made up for him with a combo platter of Boone, setup reliever Jeff Nelson and an intriguing right fielder from Japan.

That player, Ichiro Suzuki, will get a welcome call next month from the Baseball Hall of Fame. In that 2001 season, he led the majors in hits and stolen bases while winning a batting title, the Rookie of the Year award and the MVP. Along with Boone, a second baseman who hit .331 with 37 homers, the Mariners found two premier players to replace one.

With a strong existing foundation — Edgar Martinez, John Olerud, Mike Cameron — the re-fashioned Mariners simply expected to win, Boone said. They never worried about replacing Rodriguez.

“I don’t know, as players, if we ever really thought about that,” said current Mariners manager Dan Wilson, the catcher for that 2001 team. “When you talk about adding the guys we added, some of those guys were veteran guys. They understood their roles, and their job was, ‘Hey, I’m going to go fill that role.’ When you can do that and everybody’s pulling their weight at their roles, good things can happen.

“Even Ichiro, he had his role, too — he was the leadoff guy, he got on base so often and the other guys drove him in. For me, it’s (about) putting together a complete team. Sometimes you’re able to do that a little bit more when you don’t have that big star.”

Soto belted a career-high 41 home runs in 2024, with a .288/.419/.569 slash line. His .989 OPS trailed only the league MVPs, teammate Aaron Judge and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani, and only Judge reached base more times. At 26 now, Soto is only starting his prime.

To illustrate the value of pursuing the very best, Boras once cited the case of his client Greg Maddux. After Maddux won his first Cy Young Award in 1992, the Chicago Cubs lost him in free agency to the Atlanta Braves, who gave him five years and $28 million. The Cubs spread around their money instead.

Closer Randy Myers and starters Greg Hibbard and Jose Guzman joined the team, combining to make more than Maddux in 1993. The Cubs did improve in their first post-Maddux season, but not by much. By year two, they were in last place — and Maddux, of course, kept on being Maddux.

The Yankees understood that lesson. Re-signing Soto was their first choice, and they were willing to commit a record $760 million over 16 years to keep him. They know it is impossible to replace Soto’s production. But it’s plausible to re-tool smartly.

“There’s more than one way to build a team,” Aaron Boone said on Tuesday, before the Fried news broke. “Maybe it allows you to be more defensive. Maybe it allows you to play in the pitching market more often.

“Last year we had an outstanding offense, obviously anchored by Juan and Aaron hitting back to back. That’s not the only way to be a great team, though, you know what I mean?

“We’ll see. We’re going to try our best (and we’re) confident that when we get to spring training, we’ll be in a position that we’ll be one of those teams that has a chance to go compete for it all.”

Signing Fried gives the Yankees more starters than they need, with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman also on the roster. Young starters with multiple years of club control — four for Gil, three for Schmidt — are extremely valuable on the trade market. Dealing either could help the Yankees find a hitter.

Free agency offers plenty of options, too. Third baseman Alex Bregman, a right-handed pull hitter, may not be a good fit for Yankee Stadium, especially considering the contract he’ll command. Bregman is the highest-ranked unsigned position player on The Athletic’s free agent big board, followed by four others with more power who play positions the Yankees must fill.

Signing first baseman Pete Alonso would be a direct counterpunch to the Mets’ deal for Soto. But Alonso is 30 and would command a longer deal than Christian Walker, 34, who has won three Gold Gloves in a row at first base for the Arizona Diamondbacks. A deal for Walker — think three years — could be a fit.

If Judge shifts to an outfield corner and Jasson Domínguez takes over in center, the Yankees could fill left field with Teoscar Hernández or right field with Anthony Santander. The switch-hitting Santander hit 44 home runs for Baltimore in 2024 while Hernandez hit 33 for the Dodgers — and then blistered the Yankees in the World Series, hitting .350.

In other words, the market is appealing, and the Yankees have a lot of available cash after Soto chose the Mets.

“When I personally saw that, I said, ‘I think that’s the best thing that could have happened to the Yankees,’” Bret Boone said. “They went to the mat to try to get him, and now they have money to pursue other things. And they’re still the Yankees. For all those great free agents, they’re always on the radar of places they want to go.”

Fried was the first to want in. Others will follow. They won’t be Juan Soto, but they just might fit.

(Top photo of A-Rod/Soto: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images and New York Yankees/Getty Images)