Now that we have a final four headed to Las Vegas for the NBA Cup, I am back to run through our fully formed field. I thought the Milwaukee Bucks would be there — they’re always in Las Vegas in December! But I also had the Bucks losing in Las Vegas to the New York Knicks, who I thought would go on to beat the Golden State Warriors after Stephen Curry’s team knocked off the Dallas Mavericks.
Clearly, I need to atone for mistakes.
On Saturday, the Bucks will play the Atlanta Hawks, while the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Houston Rockets. Let’s dive into it.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Have they met this season?
Milwaukee hosted the Hawks last Wednesday. The Hawks took a timeout down 16-6 with 7:44 left in the first quarter. With 9:29 left in the third quarter, the Hawks were up 79-59. The Hawks went on to win 119-104, outscoring Milwaukee in all four quarters.
Do they have a playoff history?
The Hawks and Bucks split four conference quarterfinals meetings that went the distance, with Atlanta winning in 1988 and 2010 and the Bucks winning in 1984 and 1989. The biggest series the two teams ever played was the 2021 Eastern Conference finals, with the eventual-NBA champion Bucks beating the Hawks in six. The teams have combined for three head coaching changes since then.
How the Hawks eliminated the Knicks
Trae Young had no assists in the first quarter, while Jalen Johnson managed just 2-for-12 shooting in the first half. Both found their grooves, though, with Young finishing with 11 assists to just three turnovers and Johnson putting up 21 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists. Young outscored Jalen Brunson 22 to 14, while Hawks reserve De’Andre Hunter outscored the entire New York bench 24 to 14. And while the Hawks outscored the Knicks 66 to 54 in the paint, the Knicks missed 31 of 42 3s.
How the Bucks eliminated the Magic
The shorthanded Magic won the possession battle and even made more free throws than the Bucks. They also held the Bucks to only 30 3-point attempts. That is usually a winning formula. But the Bucks made four crucial 3s in the fourth quarter, with backup guard AJ Green getting loose twice and Damian Lillard erasing the Magic’s penultimate lead of the game with 52.2 seconds left to play. Lillard’s go-ahead dunk with 32.6 seconds left was the final lead change of a game in which the Bucks made 11 3s and the Magic made just six.
When the Hawks have the ball
The Hawks already demonstrated in Milwaukee that they can comfortably run their offense. The emphasis is on running, as only the Bulls and Grizzlies play at a faster pace than the Hawks. The Bucks wanted to speed the game up against the Magic, but the Hawks are going to want to put the oldest team in the NBA on the track as often as possible. Only the Grizzlies score in the paint more often than the Hawks, and Young is going to want to run as many pick-and-rolls as possible against a Bucks defense that is poor at defending it.
When the Bucks have the ball
The only team worse at guarding pick-and-roll ball handlers in the NBA than the Bucks? The Hawks. The Bucks have two powerful pick-and-roll ball handlers in Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Now, no team has been outscored from 3 more often than the Hawks, and the Hawks survived a game in Milwaukee in which Green, Gary Trent Jr. and Bobby Portis missed 17 of 22 3s off the bench. Khris Middleton also did not play against the Hawks but should be available in Las Vegas. The paint is key in this game. The Hawks fouled Antetokounmpo relentlessly last week, but Antetokounmpo’s teammates attempted only 16 shots in the paint. Sixteen of Milwaukee’s 18 turnovers against the Hawks were live-ball turnovers, with De’Andre Hunter, Onyeka Okongwu and Bogdan Bogdanović combining for 10 steals off of the bench. That can’t happen if the Bucks are going to score.
Who wins?
It comes down to which team can control the game. The Hawks have shown that they will not be deterred by an early double-digit deficit on the road. They won in Milwaukee with a comeback, and they won in New York with a comeback. The Hawks bench is powerful, especially with Hunter deciding not to miss shots. The Bucks have some logistics advantages that could be helpful. They got to play at home a day earlier than the Hawks, who are coming from New York. Middleton gives the Bucks bench more help that it didn’t have last week against the Hawks. The Bucks were in Las Vegas last year, so there is not as much of an adjustment. And because the Bucks lost already to the Hawks, the attention to detail when it comes to ball security should be more of a priority. The Bucks are going to get good looks from 3. If they knock them down, it should also keep their sorry transition defense from being a big factor.
Prediction: Bucks
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Have they met this season?
The Rockets and Thunder are quite familiar with each other. In November, the teams met in Oklahoma City, and the game wasn’t close after a 44-point second quarter by the Thunder. That was with Thunder center Chet Holmgren playing and other center Isaiah Hartenstein injured. When the two teams met in Houston to begin December, Hartenstein started with Holmgren out with a hip injury. Houston point guard Fred VanVleet scored 12 of his game-high 38 points in the fourth quarter, making a career-high 13 free throws in the process, and the Rockets won 119-116 to tie the regular-season series.
Do they have a playoff history?
Until the Seattle SuperSonics are back in the NBA, I still consider the Thunder a franchise that originated in Seattle. The Rockets and SuperSonics met six times in the playoffs between 1982 and 1997, with the Rockets only winning the 1997 Western Conference semifinals. The Rockets and the Thunder met three times in the playoffs, all in the conference quarterfinals. The Thunder won in 2013, with the Rockets winning in 2017 and 2020. Houston hasn’t made the postseason since trading James Harden in 2021, with the Thunder snapping their postseason drought that started in 2021 last season.
How the Rockets eliminated the Warriors
It is dissatisfying to see a loose-ball foul lead to the game-deciding points. That is an objective statement. Now be for real. Golden State had an 89-82 lead with 3:38 left to play and six offensive possessions to close the game in Houston against a team they had beaten every time since the COVID-19 pandemic started. The Warriors scored one point on those six possessions, including four straight turnovers. Houston was able to do what Golden State failed to do down the stretch, and that was put the ball in the basket and make the free throws they needed to make. The Rockets have the worst fourth-quarter field-goal percentage in the league, but the Warriors are 29th in that category, and Golden State suffered their eighth clutch-time loss of the season. Only the Charlotte Hornets, Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors have lost more clutch games.
How the Thunder eliminated the Mavericks
The possession battle, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (39 points) completely outplaying the Mavericks stars. Oklahoma City embarrassed Luka Dončić, holding the Dallas point guard to 5-of-15 shooting. Dončić had more turnovers (six) than assists (five) or field goals. The Thunder had 17 offensive rebounds, 10 more than the Mavericks, while outscoring Dallas 36-17 off turnovers. That’s tied for the most points off turnovers allowed by the Mavericks in the Dončić era (since 2018).
When the Rockets have the ball
Houston is 4-0 when VanVleet makes 10 shots this season, and he played with supreme confidence and aggression earlier this month against the Thunder. That’s key, because Oklahoma City is not going to use players like Luguentz Dort or Jalen Williams to guard VanVleet as often. Getting Alex Caruso back would help there, as Caruso missed the last Rockets game due to a hip injury. The Rockets want to play fast to create advantages, as they struggle to put the ball in the basket. Houston tries to make up for that by crashing the offensive glass, something the Thunder are vulnerable on defensively. The Thunder lead the league in steals, so that will be a swing factor for Houston’s offense.
When the Thunder have the ball
It’s all about the drives. No team drives more than the Thunder, and while the Rockets defend very well, there are a lot of mismatches for Gilgeous-Alexander to attack. Gilgeous-Alexander is a four-level scorer: paint, midrange, free throws and he is shooting more 3s than ever. Not having Holmgren hurts Oklahoma City’s ability to stretch Houston’s defense, but Hartenstein gives the Thunder an offensive rebounder, a screener, a passer and a finisher. Expect the Rockets to put center Alperen Şengün on players like Dort or Caruso, daring those players to make shots and muck the game up.
Who wins?
These are the two best defenses in the NBA. It will come down to how physical these teams will be allowed to play. The Thunder are the worst team in the league at getting to the free-throw line, and their offense struggles when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor. But the Rockets are going to need VanVleet or Jalen Green to have an outsized performance. If the Thunder are allowed to be disruptive and keep the Rockets off the free-throw line, then Houston has little chance of surviving offensively.
Prediction: Thunder
Who wins the NBA Cup?
There are possible regular-season rematches in play here, as the Thunder blew out the Hawks in October while the Bucks escaped with a one-point win over the Rockets in November. The Rockets and Hawks haven’t played, and I do not think they will meet in the money game on Dec. 17. Instead, I have Gilgeous-Alexander meeting his old LA Clippers head coach Doc Rivers in the final. It would be a fascinating clash of a veteran team with great positional size in Milwaukee taking on the dynamic activity of the Thunder. Oklahoma City allows the fewest paint points in the league, and it will be fascinating to see how they matchup with Antetokounmpo individually. But as a team, Milwaukee’s difficulties in transition, on the offensive glass and in the paint would give an edge to Oklahoma City.
Prediction: Thunder over Bucks
(Top photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Troy Taormina/Imagn Images)
