Is the Edmonton Oilers' 2024-25 goaltending crisis over?

If you conduct an internet search for “Edmonton Oilers goalie” in October of any recent season, the headlines and fan reaction will be almost universally negative.

The Oilers are not traditionally ready at the starting gun, and goaltenders are either the cause or the victims of the phenomenon.

In some years, the goalies figure it out, in others a trade or demotion is required.

The 2024-25 season began slowly for Stuart Skinner, Edmonton’s starter. Calvin Pickard, the backup, delivered in a more prominent role through the early weeks of the season before Skinner caught fire.

Fans were restless, then angry, then hostile. Even the math people went from calm to mild surprise to tracking small samples and giving those early numbers a prominent place in their daily conversation.

Are fans and math folks on to something with Skinner?

Goalies derail for several reasons. Sometimes it’s injury or age or a defence that knows the job but is unable to execute it. Sometimes it’s confidence, bad luck, a newborn child (legendary stories about babies and goaltending are part of Oilers lore) or other causes that involve lack of sleep and or concentration.

Almost always, young healthy goalies correct and find their way. In Skinner’s case, that appears to be happening now. One way to confirm this trend is by looking at Skinner’s history against the Oilers’ defence.

Here’s what I found.

Oilers in the first 28 games

Over the last three seasons, the Oilers have had some difficult moments defensively in the first third of each campaign. Here’s a look at the defensive numbers, with shots and chances against before those shots arrive at the goaltender.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

This is a revealing look at the Oilers’ five-on-five progression over three seasons. It shows that Kris Knoblauch and his staff have had a material impact on the club’s defensive game. We know the team has improved in shot suppression in the Knoblauch era, but these totals (specifically expected goals against) offer proof of a significant change in approach and execution for the Oilers.

Armed with these totals, let’s look at Skinner’s performances in each of the last three seasons in these games. I’ll add in the backup totals in each season too, in order to give us an idea about how well Skinner performed in comparison to his goaltending partner.

Player	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25
Stuart Skinner	0.937	0.898	0.907
League Rank	4	59	33
Jack Campbell	0.886	0.879
League Rank	35	67
Calvin Pickard		0.908	0.91
League Rank		43	27

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

In just one of the three seasons (2022-23) the Oilers received goaltending that could be considered top level through 28 games. In that season (Skinner was a rookie) the Oilers delivered 2.68 GA-60, good for No. 21 across the NHL. Jack Campbell was signed in free agency, struggled badly, and Skinner stepped in. By the 28-game point in that season, the top job belonged to Skinner.

In 2023-24, Edmonton’s GA-60 through 28 games (2.89) ranked No. 25 overall. This is despite shaving off a significant portion of the expected GA-60 season over season.

Put simply, Knoblauch’s system was working, but the goaltending lagged behind the progress.

This season, the defensive work in front of the goaltenders five-on-five is elite. The expected GA-60 (2.31) is exceptional while the actual GA-60 (2.34) is running in lockstep with the expected total.

That’s a big deal.

Stuart Skinner

Since Skinner’s numbers have improved over the first three months of this season, I wanted to see if that’s an annual trend. Here are Skinner’s save percentages, by month, over the past three seasons.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

In the most recent 16 months (not counting April 2023), Skinner has struggled significantly in four months (25 percent). That’s less than ideal, but goalies experience wobble and he recovers quickly.

Skinner has delivered two poor months in one season just one time (although this season isn’t over).

Facts and support

Several facts come to the fore when viewing Skinner’s career with the Oilers. Peak Skinner (so far) came during his rookie season, although the team’s best season came in his second year as a starter.

Skinner’s performance in the 2024 playoffs, especially versus the Dallas Stars, will be remembered for a long time no matter how this season (and his Oilers career) progresses.

The Oilers shot and high-danger suppression since Knoblauch took over should have resulted in an improvement overall, and this season there is a small gap between expected goals against and actual GA-60.

Skinner’s save percentage at five-on-five has eroded in each season, from .926 to .913 to .907 (so far this season). NHL save percentages have been eroding during these seasons, adding to the degree of difficulty in assessing this area. A recovery in this area would go a long way in cementing the young goalie’s status as Edmonton’s starter.

As it stands, the gap between five-on-five GA-60 and expected GA-60 (2.34 to 2.31) is perhaps the strongest bullet point on Skinner’s current resume.

It isn’t an old-fashioned love-in for Skinner, not from fans and not from important members of the organization.

Knoblauch was mildly critical of Skinner earlier in the season, saying “his game isn’t where it was last year. When I was here I thought he was one of the top goalies in the league. If he had a bad game, he’d bounce back the next night. We need to be more predictable in front of him so he knows where the shots are coming from.”

That was three weeks ago, and Skinner has been money since.

More recently, Knoblauch framed the issue in a different manner when in conversation with Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic: “He put a lot of pressure on himself, whether it was to continue on from the playoffs that he had or trying to make Team Canada or whatever it was. It wasn’t a good start, but it wasn’t a good start for everybody.”

In the same piece by Nugent-Bowman, Leon Draisaitl came to the aid of Skinner: “Sometimes there’s going to be scoring chances. You need a goalie who can save your butt every once in a while. He certainly does that a lot for us.”

Conclusion

The pressure on every member of the Oilers, from players to coaches to managers to support staff, is enormous.

Each spring brings the promise of the Stanley Cup, each fall the weight of the world is on the shoulders of every beating heart associated with the team.

Winning the Stanley Cup during the Connor McDavid era is a wonderful dream for all involved, but the nightmare of losing another year is the cause of sleepless nights.

Skinner’s spot on the roster is assured, his low cap number and track record make it an easy call for management. That said, GM Stan Bowman has no connection to Skinner and a poor playoff performance would surely change the equation for all involved.

The numbers tell the truth: Knoblauch’s Oilers are suppression demons, and the goaltending lagged in October, straightened up in November and is flourishing in December.

Skinner’s track record suggests market corrections after down periods are a certainty. That’s encouraging, but the NHL is a league where one bad week in spring can wipe away an entire season of hard work.

Winning the Stanley Cup would ease the pressure for the entire organization, an organization that has invested two-plus seasons and 35 playoff games in their young stopper.

The save percentage is improved markedly in recent days. The GA-60 and xGA-60 are close enough for jazz.

Betting on Skinner remains the best available play.

(Photo of Stuart Skinner: Stephen R. Sylvanie / Imagn Images)