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The Kyle Tucker trade is a sign the Cubs are serious. It also makes the AL West a more interesting division, as does the trade of Jeffrey Springs to the A’s. And we finally know Devin Williams’ landing place: He’s a Yankee now. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
A quick programming note: There will only be one Windup this week and next as we take a winter breather.
Big Deals: Kyle Tucker traded to Cubs
In a predictable — yet somehow still shocking — development, the Astros traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs for infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and infield prospect Cam Smith on Friday. It’s a big deal for both teams.
Let’s start with the Cubs. The acquisition of Tucker — who will be 28 in January and has a line of .280/.362/.527 (.888 OPS) and 112 home runs in 525 games over the last four years — is a big swing; a signal that the Cubs are really going for it in 2025. His 19.1 fWAR over that time frame is better than all but 12 offensive players in the sport (he’s tied with Corey Seager, if that gives any more context).
And that’s even after playing only 78 games last year due to a fractured shin.
It also gives a fairly strong indication that the next move for the Cubs could be a trade of Cody Bellinger; Pete Crow-Armstrong and Owen Caissie are (like Tucker and Bellinger) left-handed-hitting outfielders.
On its face, this looks like the unfurling of the rebuild white flag in Houston (though maybe that moment was when the team didn’t extend Alex Bregman before free agency.)
But let’s play optimist, just for fun: The Astros are apparently a “serious suitor” for Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado. Paredes, who should thrive with the short left-field wall in Houston, can play first base. Maybe they don’t trade Framber Valdez, and Cam Smith lives up to the hype, playing — as GM Dana Brown suggested as a possibility — right field.
Would that be enough to win the AL West? More on that in (and after) Ken’s section.
More Tucker trade: Here’s an examination of what the trade means for each team.
More Cubs: That wasn’t their only move. They also signed catcher Carson Kelly to a two-year deal.
Ken’s Notebook: Assessing the A’s-Rays trade
From my latest notes column:
The way salaries for starting pitchers are escalating, left-hander Jeffrey Springs should prove a relative bargain. Springs, acquired Saturday by the A’s from the Tampa Bay Rays, is earning $10.5 million in each of the next two seasons. His contract also includes a $15 million club option for 2027.
Springs, 32, underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2023 and returned to start seven games in 2024 before he was shut down in early September. According to a source, both he and the Rays informed the A’s that he could have kept pitching, but his surgeon, Dr. Keith Meister, advised against it. In 2022, Springs’ last healthy season, he produced a 2.46 ERA in 135 1/3 innings. If he even approaches that form, he would give the A’s a solid No. 2 starter behind Luis Severino.
The A’s also received lefty reliever Jacob Lopez in the deal, while giving up right-hander Joe Boyle, first baseman Will Simpson, righty Jacob Watters and a Competitive Balance Round A pick in the 2025 draft. That pick figures to fall in the 37 to 39 range, giving the Rays four of the first 51 selections. Boyle, 25, holds the greatest potential value of the actual players the Rays received — if he learns to throw strikes.
The 6-foot-7, 240-pound Notre Dame product did it in three eye-opening starts when he made his major-league debut at the end of the 2023 season, then regressed to his old ways in ‘24, walking 40 in 47 2/3 innings and finishing with a 6.42 ERA. The Rays generally excel at fixing such pitchers, and they saw Boyle at his best on Aug. 19, when he shut them out for six innings. But the rest of the package they negotiated is a hedge against Boyle failing to hold down a spot as either a starter or reliever.
The A’s, meanwhile, still want to add a third baseman, but the industry demand at that position far exceeds the supply. Free agent Alex Bregman is probably too expensive for the A’s and surely can find a more desirable place to play than Sacramento. Ditto for the St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado, who has a full no-trade clause. The Philadelphia Phillies’ Alec Bohm is another trade candidate, but when the A’s inquired about him, the Phillies asked for All-Star reliever Mason Miller. That ended the conversation, an A’s source said.
More Springs trade: Keith Law breaks down the swap for both sides.
Table Setting: The mild, mild (AL) West
So let’s reset:
The Astros (88-73 last year) have traded away Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman is a free agent, but Houston probably still has the best roster in the division — on paper.
The A’s (69-93 in 2024) have signed Luis Severino and traded for Jeffrey Springs — both upgrades for a team that should see improvement for the second straight year after an utterly abysmal 2023. Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler look like real stars, and Mason Miller is still one of the nastiest relievers in baseball.
The Mariners — as also noted in Ken’s column — may be willing to trade Luis Castillo for a hitter after last year’s offensive drought. Even if they do, they still might have the best rotation in baseball. It’s unrealistic to expect the entire lineup to have career years in 2025, but they can’t all be that bad again (and they were still 85-77).
The Rangers brought back Nathan Eovaldi and traded for Jake Burger, but two of their best relievers (David Robertson, Kirby Yates) are free agents (as are José Leclerc, Andrew Chafin, Andrew Heaney and Max Scherzer) and their biggest free-agent acquisition has been backup catcher Kyle Higashioka. The good news: The bulk of their 2023 World Series roster is still in place. The bad news: That roster went 78-84 last year.
And then there’s the Angels, who have signed Yusei Kikuchi, Travis d’Arnaud and Kyle Hendricks in addition to trading for Jorge Soler. Add in a healthy Mike Trout (fingers crossed), and Los Angeles should be better than its 63-99 record in 2024.
None of this suggests the AL West will be a good division in 2025. It’s certainly not the Mets/Braves/Phillies NL East, or the NL West, in which the Dodgers and Padres sit above the big-budget Giants and 2023 NL champion Diamondbacks.
But from a one-through-five parity standpoint? It should be interesting, at least.
More 2025 speculation: While we’re on the topic of interesting-versus-good: Andy McCullough and Tim Britton have a great article today on the gradual shift of power from the AL to the NL. It’s worth your time.
Puzzle Pieces: Yankees acquire closer Devin Williams
We’ve seen a few of the biggest questions of the winter answered (with Corbin Burnes’ free agency now likely the biggest one left unanswered). The most recent domino to fall: Where would the Brewers trade closer Devin Williams?
He’ll be in pinstripes. The Yankees sent LHP Nestor Cortes and 24-year-old infield prospect Caleb Durbin to the Brewers for the airbending All-Star with a career 1.85 ERA and 68 saves to go with 60 holds against 10 blown saves.
It’s business as usual for the Brewers, who have that small-market penchant for developing talent only to trade it away as the players approach free agency. But it hasn’t prevented them from succeeding, if your definition of success is making it to the postseason: Milwaukee has made the playoffs in six of the last seven years.
But if you require rings to define success … the Brewers are one of five franchises (joining the Mariners, Rays, Padres and Rockies) to have never won a World Series.
For the Yankees, Williams joins last year’s successful de facto closer Luke Weaver to form a lock-down back end of the bullpen as New York goes with plans B-Z after the departure of Juan Soto.
As for next steps … maybe a third baseman? Or maybe they’re the logical fit for Cody Bellinger, as has been rumored lately.
Handshakes and High Fives
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(Top photo: Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
