Conference play is starting to get underway for a lot of teams this week. There are a number of marquee conference openers in college football’s Week 4. My projection model has predicted point spreads and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game.
Among the big games, my model likes Tennessee by 4.5 points against Oklahoma, USC by five points against Michigan, Clemson by 16 points against NC State and Nebraska by a touchdown against Illinois. The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 4 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my Week 4 best bets, which are based on my model’s projections.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 4 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 South Alabama |
|
|
65
|
62.5
|
 App. State |
-7
|
-7
|
|
|
 Stanford |
|
|
57.5
|
57.5
|
 Syracuse |
-7.5
|
-8.5
|
|
|
 Illinois |
|
|
43
|
42.5
|
 Nebraska |
-7
|
-8.5
|
|
|
 San Jose State |
|
|
56
|
55.5
|
 Wash. State |
-13.5
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 Marshall |
|
|
52.5
|
52.5
|
 Ohio State |
-40.5
|
-40
|
|
|
 Florida |
|
|
55.5
|
58.5
|
 Miss. State |
4
|
6
|
|
|
 NC State |
|
|
41
|
44.5
|
 Clemson |
-16
|
-20.5
|
|
|
 Kansas |
|
|
57.5
|
57.5
|
 West Virginia |
-1
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Houston |
|
|
51
|
47.5
|
 Cincinnati |
-5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 James Madison |
|
|
42
|
47.5
|
 No. Carolina |
-10.5
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 Charlotte |
|
|
49.5
|
48.5
|
 Indiana |
-22.5
|
-28.5
|
|
|
 Tulane |
|
|
50.5
|
54.5
|
 Louisiana |
2.5
|
3
|
|
|
 Rice |
|
|
46.5
|
42.5
|
 Army |
-0.5
|
-6
|
|
|
 Ohio |
|
|
46.5
|
42.5
|
 Kentucky |
-15
|
-19.5
|
|
|
 Ball State |
|
|
51
|
52.5
|
 Central Mich. |
-4
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Arkansas St. |
|
|
54.5
|
51.5
|
 Iowa State |
-19
|
-21.5
|
|
|
 Virginia |
|
|
57
|
55.5
|
 Coastal Caro. |
6.5
|
3.5
|
|
|
 Utah State |
|
|
53
|
53.5
|
 Temple |
5.5
|
6.5
|
|
|
 Southern Miss. |
|
|
54.5
|
59.5
|
 J’ville State |
-3.5
|
-6.0
|
|
|
 UCLA |
|
|
56.5
|
56.5
|
 LSU |
-21.5
|
-24.5
|
|
|
 Kent State |
|
|
50.5
|
55.5
|
 Penn State |
-50
|
-48.5
|
|
|
 USC |
|
|
47
|
44
|
 Michigan |
5
|
6
|
|
|
 Miami (Ohio) |
|
|
40
|
43.5
|
 Notre Dame |
-27
|
-28
|
|
|
 Georgia Tech |
|
|
58
|
57.5
|
 Louisville |
-8
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 Buffalo |
|
|
45.5
|
43.5
|
 No. Illinois |
-9.5
|
-13.5
|
|
|
 Arkansas |
|
|
54.5
|
56.5
|
 Auburn |
-2.5
|
-3
|
|
|
 Rutgers |
|
|
50.5
|
44.5
|
 Virginia Tech |
-7.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Arizona State |
|
|
64.5
|
58.5
|
 Texas Tech |
-0.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Memphis |
|
|
49
|
49.5
|
 Navy |
7
|
9.5
|
|
|
 Utah |
|
|
53
|
52.5
|
 Oklahoma St. |
0.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Duke |
|
|
47.5
|
51.5
|
 Middle Tenn. |
19
|
14.5
|
|
|
 Vanderbilt |
|
|
55
|
53.5
|
 Missouri |
-18.5
|
-20.5
|
|
|
 TCU |
|
|
56.5
|
58.5
|
 SMU |
0.5
|
3
|
|
|
 UTEP |
|
|
52.5
|
49.5
|
 Colorado St. |
-9.5
|
-9.5
|
|
|
 East Carolina |
|
|
53.5
|
54.5
|
 Liberty |
-12.5
|
-6
|
|
|
 Miami |
|
|
63
|
65.5
|
 South Florida |
17
|
16.5
|
|
|
 Northwestern |
|
|
42.5
|
42.5
|
 Washington |
-12
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 California |
|
|
46.5
|
44.5
|
 Florida State |
-1.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 FAU |
|
|
49
|
45.5
|
 UConn |
-0.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Tulsa |
|
|
60.5
|
57.5
|
 La. Tech |
-1
|
-3
|
|
|
 New Mexico St. |
|
|
45.5
|
44.5
|
 Sam Houston |
-10
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 Toledo |
|
|
55
|
60.5
|
 W. Kentucky |
4
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Wyoming |
|
|
54.5
|
55.5
|
 North Texas |
-6
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Tennessee |
|
|
59
|
57.5
|
 Oklahoma |
4.5
|
7
|
|
|
 Bowling Green |
|
|
51.5
|
52.5
|
 Texas A&M |
-27.5
|
-22.5
|
|
|
 Iowa |
|
|
41
|
35.5
|
 Minnesota |
2
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Akron |
|
|
42.5
|
45
|
 So. Carolina |
-27.5
|
-28.5
|
|
|
 Georgia So. |
|
|
69
|
67.5
|
 Ole Miss |
-35
|
-36.5
|
|
|
 Michigan St. |
|
|
45
|
45.5
|
 Boston Coll. |
-6
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Baylor |
|
|
54.5
|
50.5
|
 Colorado |
0
|
-1.5
|
|
|
 La. Monroe |
|
|
51.5
|
53
|
 Texas |
-44
|
-44.5
|
|
|
 Fresno State |
|
|
60
|
59.5
|
 New Mexico |
15
|
14
|
|
|
 Purdue |
|
|
54
|
50.5
|
 Oregon State |
-5
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 Kansas State |
|
|
51.5
|
48.5
|
 BYU |
13.5
|
6.5
|
|
|
(Photo of Donovan Edwards: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
