Week 16 fantasy football rankings: Projections, starts, sits, Michael Penix, Breece Hall and more

It’s Week 16, so one way or another, the fantasy football playoffs are in full swing. Want to make sure you’re on your way to a possible championship? Check out the game notes and more, and let’s get those wins.

Reminder! I always have some fun ranks! This can be anything from cartoons to players from the 80s to things not to do when you’re over 30 — feel free to suggest yours. And, I try to answer as many comments as humanly possible… however… if it’s a simple WDIS within a position or “Who should I trade for?” type question, those are 99% covered with the ranks and link to the trade charts. Let’s duckin’ go!

#CheckTheLink-age

Week 16 Waiver Wire
Week 16 SOS Ranks
Fantasy 101 (weather, start/sit, trading, more)
🎙️All in Fantasy Podcast🎙️

WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL GAME NOTES

Broncos at Chargers, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

► Even if Jaleel McLaughlin is out, I’m not touching the Broncos backfield. The Chargers have been tough against the run with a mere three rushing TDs allowed.

► Kimani Vidal had 38.5% of the touches in Week 15 with 100% on third down and all RB targets. Even though Gus Edwards “leads,” you are praying for a touchdown, but good luck with that — the Broncos have given up five RB rushing touchdowns this year, and none since Derrick Henry’s two in Week 9.

► Quentin Johnston has at least 11.4 fantasy points in every game but one in which he scored a touchdown and never more than 5.3 points when he hasn’t. It’s a tough week to trust Johnston — the Broncos have allowed just seven touchdowns to wideouts this season.

Texans at Chiefs, Saturday, 1 p.m. ET

► After six games of 20+ points in 2023, including two of 30+, C.J. Stroud has topped 18.7 points just once this year. Similarly, Tank Dell had six tallies of 14.7+ points in just 11 games in 2023, but he has just three double-digit scores, with a high of 15.6, in 13 games this season.

► If Carson Wentz is at quarterback, downgrade everyone about a half tier. And if Hollywood Brown returns, DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy become even riskier WR4s — regardless of whether it’s Patrick Mahomes or Wentz.

Steelers at Ravens, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

► If George Pickens returns, he’s a WR2 in a tougher matchup now than it was weeks ago.

► There has been only one running back to eclipse 63 rushing yards against the Ravens: Saquon Barkley (107). The 63 yards were actually Najee Harris, but I’m not starting either of the Steelers running backs outside of desperation.

► As mentioned last week, Rashod Bateman feasts on bad defenses, and Zay Flowers is more in the tougher matchups/better opponents. Bateman’s games with 9+ points: TB, CIN (x2), LAC, DAL, WSH and NYG (last week). His games with 6 or fewer points: KC, LV, DEN, PIT, CLE, BUF, PHI. The LAC and LV matchups are the weird ones, but check the performances and last meeting with the Steelers.

Giants at Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

► It doesn’t matter the quarterback, Malik Nabers is the only startable Giants player, and even then, he’s still a risk/reward WR3.

► I get that the Giants stink more than duck poop baking in the sun, but Michael Penix carries risk is his first start. Though, Penix does also carry more upside than Kirk Cousins of late. As mentioned during the NFL Draft, I see Penix with Matthew Stafford potential (4000-4200 yards and mid-upper 20-touchdowns), including some but limited rushing. Drake London becomes a back-end WR2 with WR1 upside, and Darnell Mooney is a boom/bust WR3/4, even though he’s been more busty of late (Michael Scott dot GIF).

Lions at Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

► No David Montgomery could lead to more passing, but the Bears aren’t the best matchup for Jameson Williams, as they are Cover-3 heavy (45.1%), and Williams has 2.17 YPRR and four TDs against all other coverages (24 receptions) and just 1.68 and one TD against Cover-3 (18 receptions).

► Caleb Williams has struggled for most of the year, especially against man coverage, and you can see it with no Bears player having more than 1.04 YPRR against it. Williams has been better against zone, with four Bears over 1.40 YPRR. But something clicks in the red zone (quicker decisions, etc.) — Williams has eight touchdown throws against man, seven of them in the red zone against man. Oh, the Lions are the man-heaviest team in the league.

Browns at Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

► With Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, Jerry Jeudy is a WR3 with risk to bottom out. Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman are unusable, and David Njoku is a backend TE1. DTR has 540 yards, 1 TD, 7 INTs and a 51.4 Comp% on 207 NFL attempts.

► You’re starting all your Bengals. Moving on…

Titans at Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

► Calvin Ridley could be in for a down game, even with Mason Rudolph at QB. The Colts run the most zone (80.0%), and Ridley has 2.94 YPRR against man but just 1.22 against zone. He also has a YPC mark of 17.0 against man compared to 12.9 versus zone. You likely can’t bench Ridley, but be warned he carries a bit more risk this week.

► Tony Pollard’s FPPG with at least 16 carries: 14.4. In games with fewer carries: 5.9. As long as he’s healthy, and the Titans don’t deploy more Tyjae Spears, Pollard is an RB1.

Rams at Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

► Last week was the first time since Week 10 of 2022 (-3 yards against the Cardinals) Cooper Kupp failed to post positive receiving yards. It was also just his third game without 51+ yards and 11.5+ fantasy points this year. The Jets defense has given up stat lines of 14-10-115-1 to Tyreek Hill, 12-9-99-0 to Jaylen Waddle and 14-10-102-2 to Brian Thomas Jr. in the past two games.

► If Breece Hall sits and Braelon Allen plays, Allen is a risky RB2/3 playing through injury, with Isaiah Davis an upside RB3 gamble. If Hall plays, he’s a Top 20 option with the risk of exiting early. If Hall plays and Allen is out, Davis becomes an upside RB3 gamble. If Hall and Allen are out, Davis is Top 20, with Top 10 potential.

Eagles at Commanders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

► Since A.J. Brown’s arrival in Philly, the Eagles average 4.8 TD/ATT% and 28.7 TD/Drive% with him on the field, compared to 3.3 TD/ATT% and 4.5 TD/Drive% without Brown.

► Since their bye, the Eagles have allowed just four double-digit wideout scores — none more than 12.0, with just two totaling more than 65 yards (Puka Nacua and Adam Thielen). You have to start Terry McLaurin, but he’s not guaranteed for WR1 production like his past three games.

Cardinals at Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

► Since Week 4, Marvin Harrison Jr. has three games over 6.9 points and just one with over 60 receiving yards. During that span, Harrison is WR43 overall and WR58 in FPPG. I’d sit him in favor of Adam Thielen, playing for the other side.

► Chuba Hubbard has been much less efficient since facing the Giants — 5.1 YPC and 4.9 YPT heading into the Panthers’ bye, and 3.5 and 3.5, respectively, since. Hubbard is volume-reliant at this point, but it’s a positive matchup.

Vikings at Seahawks, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

► The Vikings defense is set up to give the Seahawks fits, especially as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been significantly better versus man than zone — 2.76 YPRR against man and 1.67 versus zone. If Sam Howell is at quarterback, JSN becomes a dicey WR3 gamble instead of a must-start.

► If Kenneth Walker returns, he’d rank behind Zach Charbonnet given it’s his first game back and a tough matchup. Both Charbonnet and Walker would be in RB2/3 mix with equal upside and risk.

Patriots at Bills, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

► Five of the past six quarterbacks against the Bills have thrown at least two touchdowns (Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Flacco, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff). Only Brock Purdy didn’t, who wasn’t 100%. While Drake Maye is far from trustworthy, the Bills defense isn’t as tough as it was.

► Amari Cooper ran just 15 routes and didn’t see a target in Week 15. Khalil Shakir is the only Bills wideout you can trust outside of a Hail Mary play with Keon Coleman.

Jaguars at Raiders, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

► This one will be brief. There are two names you must start in this game: Brian Thomas Jr. and Brock Bowers.

► There could be a third semi-trustworthy option with Jakobi Meyers, but only if QB Aidan O’Connell returns.

49ers at Dolphins, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

► Brock Purdy without precipitation (outdoors obviously) compared to with…

Comp: 68.3% vs 51.0%
YD/Comp: 13.6 vs 9.4
TD/ATT: 6.3% vs 0.0%
Pass RTG: 109.8 vs 56.2
EPA per DB: 0.24 vs -0.33

► If Jaylen Waddle plays, he’s no more than a Hail Mary chase, and if he’s out, Malik Washington is a similar gamble but more volume-reliant.

Buccaneers at Cowboys, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

► If Bucky Irving is good to go, he’s in the Top 15, but with injury risk. Rachaad White would be a Top 25 play in this matchup. If Irving is out, White is an RB1 and Sean Tucker as an RB3 gamble.

► RBs with more fantasy points than Rico Dowdle the past three weeks: Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown, Zach Charbonnet, James Conner, Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs… end of list. Yes, he’s RB8 in that span.

Saints at Packers, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

► If Alvin Kamara is out, Kendre Miller is a volume-reliant RB2 with a play style much like Jamaal Williams.

► TmTGT% when Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft have all played together…

Reed 17.0%
Doubs 15.2%
Kraft 14.7%
Watson 13.4%

FUN WITH RANKS

So, I had a few tweets and comments talking about how managers got booted from the playoffs because while their teams went off with 160, 170, or even 180+ points, they got edged out by a team going ham! I tweeted that I prefer the points advance method once the playoffs are here, which brought the dumpster juice of people out of the woodwork. Whatever way you like to play is fine by me — I just have my favorites and figured I’d list my Top 10 fantasy football settings, which I recommend using… or you’re a dummy poo-poo ugly head.

#BanKickers — Obviously. Thank the late Rob Bironas for this one and enjoy this entire article pointing out their irrelevance.
FAB Waivers — Any kind of ordered priority waivers should be banned like kickers. Every league should be a Free Agent Budget setup, adding more strategy to waivers and gamesmanship.
Doubleheader vs. Median — Worst case is the second-highest scoring team goes 1-1, as the upper-half scoring teams get an extra win while the bottom half gets an extra loss. There is no “realism” to a fantasy league schedule.
Keepers — Obviously, this involves leaguemates you can play with yearly, but it keeps (no pun intended) everyone involved all year, increases trade frequency, rewards those who invested in sleepers, and is just a better experience.
Auction Draft — Try it. You’ll love it. It’s the only way everyone can be in on any player. Extra strategy, team building any way you want, fun in using your poker face skills and more. Do it. Do it now!
SuperFlex or Second Flex — Deepen the player pool. In a 10-team league, SuperFlex feels like a “must” these days. In 12-teamers, it gets tough not to have injuries destroy a team with no available starting quarterbacks out there after the draft, so you can go to a second Flex instead, and either way, you’re adding more talent to teams, and making drafting, moves, etc. more important.
Byes for Top Seed Only, Sixth Seed Points — Just like the NFL, make first place mean something. The 12-team format regularly gives two byes, but instead, only give one to reward the in-season champ. Also, the final seed is the highest-scoring remaining team, which often doesn’t differ much if you’re using doubleheader scoring, but it still helps mitigate random schedule luck.
Points Only Advance in the Playoffs — Ties into the doubleheader format and the sixth seed being based on points scored. While randomness is part of the game — all sports really — matchups in the playoffs are just like in-season matchups. No more top two scores eliminating a great performance while two weak scores advance a team just because of matchup luck.
Punishment for Last Place — People giving up or not caring about finishing last is often mitigated with keepers, but there should still be something for being last — pay for pizza at the next draft, go to a sporting event in a dumb shirt or outfit… something.
WR/TE in Place of TE-Only Spot — The days of “true tight ends” are dead. The NFL doesn’t even use the position as it did years and decades ago, so we should adapt — just like we did with half-PPR or full-PPR, more WR spots, etc. Six-team byes make this even worse, and I have seen the pushback. No, tight ends will “never get used.” Not only have I seen numerous examples of teams still using two tight ends (one in the Flex or extra Flex), but the point is just to open your options to decisions like, “Should I chance a Grant Calcaterra touchdown or hope Wan’Dale Robinson can get six points?”

Bonus (even though it should be obvious) — #BanVetoes — Unless you can prove collusion — and 99.9% of the time, you can’t — people are free to manage their team however they want, and it’s not on you to decide what’s best. In fact, you can list examples of “lopsided” trades early in the season, which turn out completely lopsided the other way because people were wrong.

WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and MY RANKS are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

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