EAGAN, Minn. — Nobody around here is making much of the fact that the Minnesota Vikings clinched a playoff spot this weekend. The postseason had already become a foregone conclusion, and everyone wants more.
Because the Detroit Lions lost to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the Vikings control their destiny in the NFC North. Beat the Seattle Seahawks on the road, handle the Green Bay Packers at home and win Week 18 in Detroit, and Minnesota will be vying for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
No longer are the Vikings simply the fun-loving overachievers. They have the sixth-best odds, via BetMGM, to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, The Athletic’s projection model gives Minnesota a 31 percent chance to win the NFC North and an 11 percent chance to earn a first-round bye.
When head coach Kevin O’Connell was presented Tuesday afternoon with those possibilities, he wanted none of it, clinging instead to the appropriate cliches. Be where your feet are. Take it one day at a time. Pay attention to this week and this week only.
Live: Coach Kevin O’Connell Press Conference https://t.co/mXTAsdlpXM
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 17, 2024
If only it were that easy.
Given the spot the Vikings find themselves in, it feels like the right time to ask an important question: How good is this team? Not just in the context of this season, but compared to the best Vikings teams in recent history, and when held up against the Super Bowl-winning teams of the past decade.
We selected five key areas in which to evaluate the 2024 Vikings: point differential, passing success, defensive play, the running game and turnover margin. These were not cherry-picked metrics but broad numbers that apply directly to wins and losses.
Our findings are by no means the be-all, end-all. Strength of schedule and other factors play into this, so it’s a rough gauge. But it’s also an informative one in that these Vikings aren’t lacking in any of these particular categories.
Point differential
This seemed like an obvious statistic to start with. A team’s margin of victory indicates its level of dominance. The Vikings are plus-117 through 14 games, trailing only the Lions, Bills and Philadelphia Eagles.
None of the five previous Super Bowl-winning teams led the NFL in point differential. All of them, though, slotted somewhere in the top 10. That the Vikings are where they are is unquestionably a positive sign.
Early in the season, multiple pundits including legendary coach Bill Belichick questioned the Vikings’ ability to play from behind, especially late in games. Those opportunities have been rare, but the response late against the Cardinals in Week 13 provided a data point. The Vikings also challenged the Rams in Los Angeles.
For additional perspective, here is where Minnesota stacks up through 14 games against the Super Bowl-winning teams of the last decade.
|
Season
|
Team
|
Point differential
|
|---|---|---|
|
2014
|
 Patriots |
162
|
|
2015
|
 Broncos |
49
|
|
2016
|
Patriots |
132
|
|
2017
|
 Eagles |
159
|
|
2018
|
Patriots |
64
|
|
2019
|
 Chiefs |
110
|
|
2020
|
 Bucs |
80
|
|
2021
|
 Rams |
83
|
|
2022
|
Chiefs |
92
|
|
2023
|
Chiefs |
74
|
|
2024
|
 Vikings |
117
|
As you’ll notice, the Vikings reside on the more promising end of the spectrum among the most elite of teams. The same goes for this year’s Vikings compared to the 2009 and 2017 Vikings teams that reached the NFC Championship Game. This year’s total of plus-117 is smack in the middle of the ’09 (plus-127) and ’17 (plus-101) teams through 14 games.
Passing success
Years ago, one Pro Football Focus writer assessed the previous decade to discern common themes among the best teams. He deemed that there is no one formula for reaching the mountaintop, but that “above-average passing” was a consistent attribute.
If you know anything about O’Connell’s approach, you know how integral passing the ball is — and how successful these Vikings can be through the air. Since he became Minnesota’s head coach, the only team with more completions of 20 yards or more is San Francisco.
This year’s passing game is more explosive than Brett Favre’s was in 2009 and more efficient than the Case Keenum-led unit in 2017. These Vikings rank comparably with past Super Bowl winners, too.
|
Season
|
Team
|
EPA/play
|
Explosive play rate
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
2014
|
Patriots |
0.27
|
15.0%
|
|
2015
|
Broncos |
0.03
|
13.6%
|
|
2016
|
Patriots |
0.27
|
16.3%
|
|
2017
|
Eagles |
0.29
|
13.2%
|
|
2018
|
Patriots |
0.23
|
17.1%
|
|
2019
|
Chiefs |
0.29
|
17.8%
|
|
2020
|
Bucs |
0.12
|
13.3%
|
|
2021
|
Rams |
0.29
|
17.3%
|
|
2022
|
Chiefs |
0.32
|
18.1%
|
|
2023
|
Chiefs |
0.11
|
12.7%
|
|
2024
|
Vikings |
0.25
|
18.7%
|
The question comes down to Sam Darnold. Eight of the last 10 Super Bowls have been won by sure-fire Hall of Famers: Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Peyton Manning. Another likely Hall of Famer, Matthew Stafford, won one of the others. Nick Foles is the outlier of the bunch, but the 2017 Eagles rode the underdog wave to the finish line.
One interesting layer to Darnold’s season is how effective he’s been in the fourth quarter and overtime. Darnold ranks ninth in EPA per dropback in these moments and has completed 63 percent of his passes. Interestingly, his EPA also ranks second in the NFL when the Vikings are trailing behind only Joe Burrow.
Sam Darnold is just the third QB in NFL history to reach 3,500 passing yards, 29 TD passes and 100.0+ passer rating in his first 14 games with a team.#ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/QLBxJB94nj
— Vikings Communications (@VikingsPR) December 17, 2024
Running the football
It’s the old adage: Throw to score, run to win. O’Connell even said Monday night, “To be able to (run) and finish drives (by running) is important for us moving forward.”
The ground game is not the Vikings’ offensive identity per se. It likely never will be with O’Connell at the helm. That’s OK, but some success is essential, and the Vikings have shown they’re capable. They rank 17th in the league this season in yards per carry and 15th in EPA per rush.
Here’s how those metrics look against the last 10 Super Bowl champions.
|
Season
|
Team
|
Yards per carry
|
EPA rank
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
2014
|
Patriots |
4.2
|
4th
|
|
2015
|
Broncos |
4.3
|
19th
|
|
2016
|
Patriots |
4.0
|
13th
|
|
2017
|
Eagles |
4.5
|
11th
|
|
2018
|
Patriots |
4.5
|
7th
|
|
2019
|
Chiefs |
4.1
|
17th
|
|
2020
|
Bucs |
4.5
|
10th
|
|
2021
|
Rams |
4.2
|
20th
|
|
2022
|
Chiefs |
4.6
|
16th
|
|
2023
|
Chiefs |
4.0
|
17th
|
|
2024
|
Vikings |
4.1
|
15th
|
Whether the Vikings offensive line can handle imposing fronts remains a pivotal question down the stretch. On Monday night, the Bears’ movement up front flustered left tackle Cam Robinson, left guard Blake Brandel, center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Dalton Risner. Right tackle Brian O’Neill has been the most stable of the group, but he suffered a knee injury.
O’Connell does not expect O’Neill to miss any time, but even a dinged-up O’Neill would make the line less formidable. It’s also worth noting that many of the Vikings’ potential playoff opponents possess elite interior defenders. The Eagles have Jalen Carter. The Bucs have Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey. The Commanders have Daron Payne. The Rams have Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske.
Defensive production
One fascinating element about recent Super Bowl-winning teams is how successful their defensive coordinators have been.
Belichick needs no further explanation. Steve Spagnuolo of the Kansas City Chiefs has done a phenomenal job. Jim Schwartz coordinated the Eagles in 2017, and Wade Phillips led the Broncos in 2015. Brandon Staley’s Rams were helped by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but even that defense could be game-plan-specific.
These Vikings don’t have that type of talent, but defensive coordinator Brian Flores is capable of bespoke plans that torpedo offensive tendencies. That should give his unit a puncher’s chance against anyone. This defense is allowing more explosive plays than both the 2009 and 2017 teams, but its efficiency nears the 2017 team.
Any issues that arise will likely stem from the lack of a pass rush or an inability to stop the run. Minnesota’s defense has the lowest success rate against rushes over the last three weeks. Linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. should return from an injured hamstring, which will help Minnesota’s cause.
If the Vikings can get back to stopping opponents’ rushing attacks, it’ll become hard to argue against this defense being capable enough.
|
Season
▲
|
Team
|
EPA/play
|
Explosive play rate allowed
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
2014
|
Patriots |
0.0
|
12.1%
|
|
2015
|
Broncos |
0.12
|
8.4%
|
|
2016
|
Patriots |
0.08
|
10.3%
|
|
2017
|
Eagles |
0.10
|
9.1%
|
|
2018
|
Patriots |
0.05
|
13.7%
|
|
2019
|
Chiefs |
0.0
|
10.8%
|
|
2020
|
Bucs |
0.07
|
9.5%
|
|
2021
|
Rams |
0.02
|
10.5%
|
|
2022
|
Chiefs |
0.01
|
9.8%
|
|
2023
|
Chiefs |
0.09
|
9.0%
|
|
2024
|
Vikings |
0.10
|
11.5%
|
Turnover margin
There is no more predictive statistic when it comes to winning or losing a football game. Here’s where the Vikings are positioned compared to the best teams of the past decade.
|
Season
|
Team
|
Off turnovers
|
Def turnovers
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
2014
|
Patriots |
12
|
23
|
|
2015
|
Broncos |
25
|
25
|
|
2016
|
Patriots |
11
|
17
|
|
2017
|
Eagles |
16
|
25
|
|
2018
|
Patriots |
15
|
22
|
|
2019
|
Chiefs |
14
|
21
|
|
2020
|
Bucs |
16
|
21
|
|
2021
|
Rams |
15
|
20
|
|
2022
|
Chiefs |
21
|
15
|
|
2023
|
Chiefs |
24
|
16
|
|
2024
|
Vikings |
20
|
28
|
Even though the 20 offensive turnovers are at the higher end, this Vikings defense has made up for it. Darnold threw the ball into traffic multiple times Monday night, but only one pass was picked off. Running back Aaron Jones fumbled four times in a span of three games but has not put the ball on the deck in the team’s last two victories.
O’Connell is 28-2 as a head coach when the Vikings win the turnover margin. Only the Chiefs are better since the beginning of 2022. Continue to win this metric, and there’s no telling how all of this will end.
(Photo of Josh Metellus: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
