The 2024 Formula One season has come and gone, but we still have some business to attend to.
You’ll recall that we boldly declared our F1 season predictions ten months ago. Midway through the season in August, we reexamined them to see how wrong or right we had been. We allowed ourselves to double down on some picks and take a mulligan on others. Everyone had a good time, there were no stakes and we prepared to get on with our lives in harmony.
And then Chris L. commented with an idea.
“I feel as though some point system would make this more spicy, perhaps with a financial contribution from the losers,” he said. Well, good news, Chris: I loved the contest idea, and I ran with it. (Not the financial contribution part; I was on pace to lose at the time.)
So, welcome to The Athletic’s impromptu first annual F1 season predictions contest. This is one of those classic competitions where one participant creates the rules, and the other three don’t know they’re competing.
Here’s the plan: I’ll review each original prediction category as we did midseason, but this time, I’ll keep score for accurate guesses. Each section includes the points assigned for each category. I tried to ensure that each correct prediction earned a hefty reward while also allowing some leeway for near misses or technicalities.
I also had to figure out how to score the midseason double-downs and mulligans. I thought double-downs should really matter since they were locking in preseason predictions with the benefit of midseason hindsight. Here’s what I landed on:
- Correct double-down: +5 points
- Incorrect double-down: -5 points
- Correct mulligan: +3 points
- Incorrect mulligan: -3 points
I’m sure this scoring system will be uncontroversial and not require any changes in 2025. I will not be taking questions. Let’s dive into our preseason predictions and midseason corrections and see which one of our F1 staffers came out on top.
Constructors’ championship top three
5 points for each correct team in the exact position
1 point for the correct team in the wrong position
- Luke Smith: Red Bull (+1), Mercedes, Ferrari (+5)
- Madeline Coleman: Red Bull (+1), Ferrari (+1), Mercedes
- Pat Iversen: Red Bull (+1), Ferrari (+1), Mercedes
- Alex Davies: Red Bull (+1), Mercedes, McLaren (+1)
Where things finished: McLaren (666), Ferrari (652), Red Bull (589)
Only one of us included the eventual constructors’ champion in the top three. I’m surprised nobody used their midseason mulligan here since McLaren was already in second place by summer break. Then again, as we’ll find out, I’m not sure we were very clear on how to use the mulligans.
Overall, it was a pretty good first round for everyone. It’s all downhill from here!
Drivers’ championship top three
5 points for each correct driver in the exact position
1 point for the correct driver in the wrong position
Smith: Verstappen (+5), George Russell, Charles Leclerc (+5)- Smith [Midseason Mulligan]: Max Verstappen (+5), Lando Norris (+3), Oscar Piastri
- Coleman: Verstappen (+5), Sergio Pérez, Charles Leclerc (+5)
- Iversen: Verstappen (+5), Pérez, Carlos Sainz
- Davies: Verstappen (+5), Pérez, Norris (+1)
Where things finished: Verstappen (437), Norris (374), Leclerc (356)
“My drivers’ picks need two out of three changes,” Luke said in August, making a fateful decision to change his drivers’ championship prediction. That sound you heard was the Greek chorus lamenting, tearing tunics, etc. If Luke had kept Leclerc in third, that would’ve been a whopping 13 points in this round instead of eight. It’s not the last time too much faith in Piastri would cost one of us points.
This category is a terrific example of where our heads were after the 2023 season. Red Bull and Verstappen had been so dominant that it was difficult to imagine the ten months of legitimate competition we would face.
Surprise pole
5 points for the correct prediction
- Smith: Piastri
- Coleman: Norris (+5)
- Iversen: Daniel Ricciardo
- [Double Down] Davies: Piastri (-5)
Where things finished: 9 poles for Norris
As I was saying. Alex suffers the first doomed Double Down by banking on Piastri to earn a sophomore season pole. “With 10 races left, I see no reason he can’t deliver a P1-worthy lap,” Alex said. Alas! It still seems like a sound choice, knowing that McLaren went on to win the title and Piastri earned a dominant win in Baku.
It’s interesting how close Piastri came to winning his first F1 pole this year. He qualified second five times; here are the gaps to the pole winners for those races:
| Race | Gap to pole |
|---|---|
|
Monaco GP
|
0.154s
|
|
Hungarian GP
|
0.022s
|
|
Italian GP
|
0.109s
|
|
Azerbaijan GP
|
0.321s
|
|
Abu Dhabi GP
|
0.209s
|
Three times within two-tenths of a pole! It’s coming next year. Alex was just a little early.
Surprise podium
5 points for the correct prediction
- Smith: Ricciardo
- Coleman: Ricciardo (Mulligan used, no replacement offered)
- Iversen: Pierre Gasly (+5)
- Davies: Alex Albon (Mulligan used, no replacement offered)
Where things finished: Pierre Gasly podium in Brazil
I’ve never sunk a half-court buzzer-beater before, but waiting nine months for a Pierre Gasly podium pick to come true feels pretty close.
By the way, this is where the mulligan thing started becoming an issue. I don’t think we knew what to do with a mulligan once we used it. In golf, a mulligan is where you get to take an extra stroke after making a poor shot. In The Athletic’s F1 predictions, it apparently just meant admitting you were wrong and moving on.
Aside from Luke’s drivers’ championship mulligan, that’s how we used them at midseason. Nobody else replaced their picks with mulligans. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Something we’ll have to clear up next time, but for now, we sure left potential points on the board.
Most improved team
5 points for correctly predicting McLaren
1 point for predicting a team that showed any improvement
- Smith: RB (+1)
- [Double Down] Coleman: RB (-4)
- [Double Down] Iversen: Mercedes (-4)
- Davies: Williams
Where things finished:
- The most improved F1 team was McLaren, which won the constructors’ championship by 364 points compared to 2023.
- RB finished P8 with 21, compared to P8 with 25 points in 2023.
- Mercedes finished P4 with 468, compared to P2 with 409.
- Williams finished P9 with 17, compared to P7 with 28.
- Of the three we mentioned, Mercedes improved the most in points.
I told you I wanted the double-downs to matter! Madeline and I were right that RB and Mercedes would improve, but the technicality (that McLaren improved the most) punishes us here. If we hadn’t doubled down, we’d have earned one point instead of losing four. I don’t make the rules! Wait …
Williams crashed 17 times in 2024. I think Alex lost this category?
Most improved driver
5 points for correctly predicting Piastri
1 point for predicting a driver who showed improvement
- [Double Down] Smith: Yuki Tsunoda (-4)
- Coleman: Logan Sargeant
- Iversen: Pérez (took mulligan, no replacement)
- Davies: Russell (+1)
Where things finished:
- Oscar Piastri improved the most with 195 points year over year
- Tsunoda finished P12 with 30 points, compared to P14 with 17 in 2023.
- Sargeant finished P23 with 0, compared to P21 with 0.
- Pérez finished P8 with 152, compared to P2 with 285.
- Russell finished P6 with 245, compared to P8 with 175.
“(Tsunoda) keeps that up through the remaining races, making his being totally overlooked for a Red Bull seat all the more baffling,” Luke said in August. The second half of that statement holds water (Lawson will likely get the nod to replace Pérez in 2025), but Tsunoda’s form fell off in the second half with just two top-ten finishes and three retirements.
Also, I can’t believe I took a mulligan and still didn’t replace Pérez here. This was a bad pick that got worse and worse. Kudos to Alex for nailing the Russell pick, though.
‘Drive To Survive’ Season 7 preview moment
- Smith: Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes exit
- Coleman: Sargeant’s comeback story
- Iversen: Hamilton wearing that red Ferrari firesuit … and Sainz wearing a Mercedes hat
- Davies: Hamilton claps on the red overalls for the first time
I’m unsure how to score this, but I was very tempted to take away points from me and Madeline.
Red Bull win total
5 points if within 1 win of the final total
3 points if within 3 wins
1 point if within 5 wins
- Smith: 13 (+1)
- Coleman: 12 (+3)
- Iversen: 10 (+5)
- Davies: 11 (+3)
Where things finished: Red Bull had nine wins.
I went off our midseason revisions for this, by the way. Our preseason predictions were closer to the 20-win range, so we still over-estimated the 2024 Red Bull car in August. Verstappen only won two more races the rest of the way, and Pérez only finished in the top ten three times after summer break. I felt pretty proud for predicting a 19-win season in February, so I tried to go lower than everyone else again here. Swish.
Verstappen win total
5 points if within 1 win of the final total
3 points if within 3 wins
1 point if within 5 wins
- Smith: 13 (+1)
- Coleman: 12 (+3)
- Iversen: 10 (+5)
- Davies: 11 (+3)
Where things finished: Verstappen had nine wins.
“Pérez isn’t about to contribute anything,” Alex said in August, reporting back from the future.
And the winner is …
| Staffer | Points |
|---|---|
|
Madeline
|
19
|
|
Pat
|
18
|
|
Luke
|
13
|
|
Alex
|
9
|
Actually, the real winner is all of us. Here, have a sticker.
Everybody grab your star pic.twitter.com/7zdD4VQnsI
— Jo 🦡 (@itsIightsout) December 8, 2024
Top photo: Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images, Clive Mason/Getty Images, Mark Thompson/Getty Images; Design: Meech Robinson/The Athletic
