I finally had a bad week picking winners, stumbling to a 4-5 record during championship week. That dropped me to 90-45 for the season (not against the spread, of course).
I’m still not sure what possessed me to pick Penn State. It’s time to redeem myself in the College Football Playoff.
As usual, we’ll get to my hits and misses below. But first, here are this week’s picks with the stat stuffers included in the capsules.
Note: All stats below are against FBS opponents only unless otherwise indicated.
College Football Playoff
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5)
The Irish have a lot of rivalries, but the in-state Hoosiers aren’t one of them even though their campuses are separated only by a three-hour drive. The teams haven’t met since 1991.
The knock against Curt Cignetti’s team: The Hoosiers have faced the fewest opponents with a winning record (two) among the 12 teams in the field. And Indiana didn’t look like the same team in those two games — a 20-15 win over Michigan and a 38-15 loss to Ohio State — as it did in its other 10 games.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, has more victories against winning teams (6-1 record) than any other Playoff team.
Friday’s forecast for South Bend is calling for snow in the morning and 14-mile-per-hour winds. That’s grown-man football weather. As Georgia Tech’s Brent Key says, that’s “run the dang ball” weather. Notre Dame’s average of 6.0 yards per carry against winning teams is far superior to Indiana’s 1.8-yard average (in only two games). Jeremiyah Love in the backfield will be huge for the Irish.
Prediction: Notre Dame (10-2 against the spread this season) outrushes Indiana by 150 yards, controls the clock and wins the game by at least two touchdowns.
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (-12)
Dabo Swinney was right to clap back at reporters after his team’s surprising run to the ACC championship. He proved he could win a league title without dipping into the transfer portal.
But it’s still hard to trust the Tigers (2-3 against winning teams) to go into Austin and score a bunch of points against a Texas defense that has allowed only 14.7 points per game against winning teams. Clemson’s defense has allowed 27 points per game and 5.4 yards per carry against winning teams.
Prediction: Quinn Ewers throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, and Texas wins by 10 points to advance to the Peach Bowl.
Time to take the next step. #Clemson pic.twitter.com/1jjhHaAVbo
— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) December 17, 2024
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (-7.5)
Temperatures in the teens await these teams Saturday night in Columbus. And nobody’s seat feels warmer heading into this one than Buckeyes coach Ryan Day.
The good news for a coach with a 66-10 record: Ohio State is still a really good team. The Buckeyes are 4-2 against winning teams this season compared to 2-1 for Tennessee. The Buckeyes are averaging 30.5 points and allowing 15.7 points in such games.
The big question for the Vols is if quarterback Nico Iamaleava is ready for the moment. In those three games vs. winning opponents, he completed 58.1 percent of his attempts for 176.7 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.
Prediction: Ohio State’s defense makes Tennessee’s offense rely on tailback Dylan Sampson too much, and Will Howard’s late 12-yard touchdown pass to Emeka Egbuka lifts the Buckeyes to the six-point win.
Upset alert: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (-8.5)
The Nittany Lions looked good offensively (518 yards) in their 45-37 Big Ten Championship Game loss to No. 1 Oregon — and quite the opposite on defense (466 yards allowed). SMU, meanwhile, took too long to get rolling against Clemson, and it cost the Mustangs in the ACC title game.
On paper, there are a lot of reasons to view this game a lot closer than the spread. For one, SMU’s 5-2 record against winning teams (wins over Louisville, Duke, Pitt, TCU and Boston College) actually feels a little more impressive than Penn State’s 3-2 record in the same category (wins over Illinois, Bowling Green and Minnesota).
But here’s why I’m going with SMU in the upset: The Mustangs have allowed only 3.3 yards per carry against winning teams, and tailback Brashard Smith has proven he can run against winning teams (109 yards per game, eight TDs).
Prediction: A late touchdown drive capped off by a Kevin Jennings’ pass to Smith lifts SMU to the road win and continues the misery in big games for James Franklin.
Conference championship report card
Sometimes you look foolish. Other times, you really stick your foot in your mouth. I managed to pull off both.
Let’s review my stupidity. Warning: It gets progressively worse.
• I said SMU would cover the 2.5-point spread against Clemson behind 130 yards of total offense from Smith and a late touchdown run by Jennings. Smith had 147 yards of total offense, Jennings threw for 304 yards and a late touchdown, but Clemson won the ACC title (and covered the spread) on a 56-yard field goal.
• I said Tyler Warren would score on a late touchdown run, and Penn State would win its first Big Ten championship since 2016 in a stunner over No. 1 Oregon. Warren had seven catches for 84 yards and two carries for 2 yards, and the Nittany Lions lost 45-37.
• I said Iowa State’s Jayden Higgins (10 catches, FBS-leading 170 yards, one TD) and Jaylin Noel (six catches, 100 yards, one TD) would be the difference in Iowa State’s upset over Arizona State in the Big 12 title game. Higgins had seven catches for 115 yards and Noel had five catches for 64 yards and a touchdown, but Arizona State blew out the Cyclones 45-19.
• I said the Miami (Ohio) defense would be the difference against Ohio, forcing three turnovers in a 10-point win in the MAC title game. Ohio rolled up 467 yards, held Miami (Ohio) to 189 and won easily, 38-3.
• I said Louisiana’s Ben Wooldridge would lead all quarterbacks with 330-plus passing yards and two touchdowns, and the Ragin’ Cajuns would roll up 500 yards to win the Sun Belt title and cover the 5.5-point spread against Marshall. Wooldridge didn’t play, and the Thundering Herd won 31-3 in Charles Huff’s last game before leaving for Southern Miss.
• And now to the few I got right (sort of). I said Carson Beck, who threw three interceptions in the regular-season win at Texas, would throw two touchdown passes and lead Georgia to the SEC crown. Beck threw for only 56 yards and left at halftime with an injury to his throwing arm and his team trailing 6-3. But backup Gunner Stockton led the Bulldogs to a comeback win.
• I said Jacksonville State would run for 260 yards, cover the 3.5-point spread and deny Western Kentucky its first Conference USA title since 2016. The Gamecocks ran for 386 yards and rolled up 562 total yards in a 52-12 victory.
• I said Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty would rush for three touchdowns and more than 200 yards to lead all rushers in championship week, and make his final case for the Heisman in a convincing double-digit win over UNLV in the Mountain West title game. Jeanty ran for an FBS-leading 209 yards and a touchdown in a 21-7 Boise State win.
• I said Army’s Bryson Daily would pace a 300-yard rushing night for Army with 180 yards and two touchdowns and the Black Knights would pull out a win late over favored Tulane. Daily ran for 126 yards and four touchdowns, and Army ran for 335 yards en route to a 35-14 win.
(Photos of James Franklin, Isaiah Nwokobia: David Berding, Sam Hodde / Getty Images)
