Nguyen: ID'ing each division leader's most important non-QB heading toward playoffs

The playoffs are approaching and injuries are mounting. As much as we don’t like to admit it, the road to the Super Bowl is often a war of attrition. The healthiest team isn’t always the last one standing, but there are some injuries teams just can’t afford.

You can talk about a “next man up” mentality all you want, but it’s valuable to have an elite ball-winner running routes for you on money downs. Obviously, teams can ill-afford to lose their quarterbacks, but who are the most valuable non-quarterbacks for each of the division leaders?

Kansas City Chiefs: CB Trent McDuffie

Many would choose defensive tackle Chris Jones here, but with the dropoff the Chiefs’ defense has taken since losing corner Jaylen Watson for the year in Week 7, losing McDuffie, who is one of the best corners in the league, would be disastrous.

Without Jones, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo would be even more aggressive with sending pressure, which could alleviate some of what Jones provides. The Chiefs also have some depth on the defensive line. This secondary cannot afford to take any more hits with how much man and match coverage they want to play — seventh in man coverage rate (23.7 percent). Jones wouldn’t be as effective if receivers were getting open before he could affect the passer. The Chiefs rank fifth in blitz rate (23.75) and second in Cover 0 rate (man-to-man with no deep help, usually with an all-out blitz). To play the style Spagnuolo wants to play, the Chiefs need corners, and losing one of the league’s best would force some major adjustments.

Pittsburgh Steelers: WR George Pickens

Pickens isn’t a bona fide elite receiver yet, and there are times when his effort level isn’t where you want it to be, but it’s hard to deny his talent. He’s by far the Steelers’ most talented receiver, and their passing game is dramatically less effective without him. Since Russell Wilson took over as starter in Week 7, the Steelers’ passing game has been one of the most efficient in the league. Wilson and Pickens were made for each other. Pickens specializes in getting deep and making contested catches and Wilson throws one of the best “moon” balls in the league.

The sample is small, but without Pickens, the Steelers’ offense struggled against the Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles. Yes, the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league, but if the Steelers consider themselves Super Bowl contenders, they can’t have performances as in Week 15 in which they only scored 13 points and had 163 yards before the Eagles ran the entire clock out after the getting the ball with 10:29 remaining in the game. This offense depends on Pickens’ big-play ability and the stress he puts on defenses.

Buffalo Bills: LT Dion Dawkins

The Bills will have to win on the back of their offense led by superhuman Josh Allen because their defense isn’t stopping any of the top offenses in the playoffs. The man protecting Allen’s blindside is of utmost importance. Dawkins is having his best season at the ripe age of 30. He’s always been athletic, but he’s taken his technique and processing to the next level.

Allen has shown he can win without a top-tier pass catcher because of his ability to run and extend plays. When he’s holding on to the ball and trying to give his receivers time to get open, the stress is on Dawkins to hold up and ensure Allen doesn’t take a hit he doesn’t see coming.

Also, the Bills’ run game has been one of the best in the league. They are second to just the Detroit Lions in rushing success rate (44.6 percent). Their best run concept is their tackle-trap play. Most teams pull their guards, but the Bills like to pull their athletic tackles to open up holes.

.@JoshAllenQB making it look easy.

📺: @paramountplus & @NFLonCBS#BUFvsDET | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/w0b0qqLiKS

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 15, 2024

Houston Texans: Edge Danielle Hunter

Hunter is quietly having a Defensive Player of the Year-worthy season. He leads the league in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, winning 28 percent of his rushes, and he’s second in total sacks (12) to only the Cincinnati Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson, who has half a sack more. Hunter is the leader of a fierce Texans pass rush that ranks No. 1 in pass rush win rate overall.

It looked like the Texans would be an offensive juggernaut coming into the season with reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud. They loaded up on offense, trading for Stefon Diggs, but the receiver is out for the season and the offensive line is one of the worst in the league. Stroud is struggling just to keep the offense afloat.

If the Texans are to make any noise in the playoffs, it’ll be up to the defense to keep the score close. They rank third in defensive EPA per drive and yards per play, third in takeaways (27) and eighth in points per drive. Coach DeMeco Ryans has this defense playing at a high level, and Hunter’s impact is crucial.

Philadelphia Eagles: RB Saquon Barkley

Barkley should win Offensive Player of the Year. Putting a blue-chip runner behind this Eagles’ offensive line has proved to be unstoppable. This offense used to be built on the QB run game, but Jalen Hurts hasn’t looked like the same runner he was a couple of years ago when the Eagles were in the Super Bowl.

This offense has moved to a more traditional run game with straight handoffs and they’ve simply bludgeoned teams this season. Even if defenses stop Barkley in the first half, they’re usually tired of trying to hold their ground against the Eagles’ offensive line and tackling Barkley in the second half and that’s when they get a lot of their explosive runs.

Jeff Stoutland is one of the best offensive line coaches in the league, and they’ve been able to remain productive while dealing with injuries, but it’s hard to imagine this run game having as much pop as it does if Barkley were out of the lineup. Kenneth Gainwell is a fine satellite back, but the dropoff between him and Barkley is significant. The Eagles’ passing game is also dependent on Barkley, not just because he is one of the better pass-catching backs in the league, but because Hurts is best throwing one-on-one routes against loaded boxes to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Los Angeles Rams: WR Puka Nacua

Cooper Kupp has lost a step, and this offense undoubtedly runs through Nacua now.

Nacua aggravated a knee injury in Week 1 that knocked him until Week 8. From weeks 2 to 7, the Rams ranked 25th in points per drive (1.62). Nacua returned dramatically in Week 8 against the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams had one of their best offensive performances of the season against a tough defense. From weeks 8 to 15, the Rams rank 13th in points per drive (2.22).

The Rams also had several offensive linemen injured this season, but this offense looks completely different with Nacua’s versatility. He’s a threat running after the catch on screens, can produce in the intermediate part of the field and wins contested catches deep. He’s also one of the league’s best run blockers at his position. Finding Nacua in the fifth round has revitalized this franchise. He’s one of the most valuable non-quarterbacks in the league.

Well ya don't see that everyday.

📺: @NFLonPrime | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/ufCmT1DoYF

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 13, 2024

Detriot Lions: RB Jahmyr Gibbs

The Lions certainly can’t afford any more defensive injuries, and the reality is they’re going to play in a lot of shootouts like their 48-42 loss to the Bills on Sunday. They won’t face many quarterbacks like Josh Allen in the playoffs, but they will have to score a lot of points to get to the Super Bowl. Jared Goff has improved every year in Detriot, but this offense is still built on the run game. The question is, who is more valuable for this offense? Jahmyr Gibbs or their best offensive linemen, right tackle Penei Sewell?

Sewell isn’t just an offensive lineman. He caves in the right side of the line in the run game, widens the pocket for Goff, catches the occasional pass and can even throw the ball. However, with the injury to David Montgomery, there might not be another back on the roster whom they can give 20-plus touches per game. The Lions need Gibbs’ big-play ability, and to get to the Super Bowl, they’re going to need a huge postseason from Gibbs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LT Tristan Wirfs

You can easily make an argument for receiver Mike Evans. Especially with Chris Godwin out for the season, Baker Mayfield is a drastically different quarterback when he’s pressured versus when he isn’t pressured. Also, I trust Liam Coen, who has been as good as any offensive coordinator this season, to scheme open receivers and some explosive runs. Mayfield’s worst game of the season was against the San Francisco 49ers in which Wirfs only played 16 snaps.

Wirfs has been phenomenal this season. He hasn’t allowed a sack and has yielded only nine pressures on 478 pass-blocking snaps. Mayfield ranks seventh in EPA per dropback (0.25) when he isn’t pressured. He drops to 21st in EPA per dropback (-0.36) when he is pressured. As long as Mayfield is comfortable in the pocket, this offense has a chance.

Minnesota Vikings: WR Justin Jefferson

Right tackle Brian O’Neill has a case for the Vikings’ most valuable non-quarterback with tackle Christian Darrisaw out for the season. However, the numbers show that Sam Darnold is pretty much the same quarterback when he’s pressured versus when he’s not pressured (13th in EPA per dropback when not pressured versus 15th in EPA per dropback when pressured). He’s thrown seven interceptions when not pressured and four when pressured.

Jefferson is the best receiver in football. The Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase certainly has a case for that title, but for me, Jefferson is the top dog. Chase gets the numbers but he has a lot more plays designed for him like screens — according to Fantasy Pros, he has been thrown 6 percent more screens than Jefferson has this year.

No receiver gets more extra attention than Jefferson and coach Kevin O’Connell knows how to draw up plays to expose the attention Jefferson gets. Whether it’s deep shots to Jordan Addison or delay routes underneath for T.J. Hockenson, the space that Jefferson creates for this offense makes it explosive.

(Photo of Danielle Hunter: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)