This week’s mailbag included several existential questions about fandom. It’s not the first time we’ve gone through this over the years with the Bears struggling so much.
From the simple, “When does it get better?” submission by Les J. to the humorous, “What legal action can I take against my parents for raising me as a Bears fan? When does this become cruel and unusual punishment?” by Lizzie F., this season has been especially difficult.
Two things add to the frustration: One, the Bears have offered no reason to think they can get it right, and two, they so rarely have one of those fluky good seasons (or string of good seasons), let alone a shocking win.
Watching Sam Darnold lead the Vikings to their seventh consecutive win and a shot at the No. 1 seed, I couldn’t help but think, “When do things like this ever happen to the Bears?”
The Bears are 6.5-point underdogs at home against the Lions. There’s literally a movie called “Any Given Sunday” to highlight the chance that any team can win on any day in this league, but the Bears are 3-15 since the start of the 2022 season when they were underdogs of at least 6 points.
The upset wins rarely happen. The surprising seasons are averaging once per a dozen years. The disappointment is nearly annual.
But hey, who’s to say next year won’t be their year? The Bears are due.
Now, on to your questions.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
Ryan Poles oversaw a ten-game losing streak in his first season while finishing the teardown. He is very likely going to oversee an 11-game losing streak this season. Is being able to outsmart one NFL owner (David Tepper) a real reason to keep him? — Jim S.
The Bears have had four eight-game losing streaks in team history, and two have come under Poles. His head coach choice was the first coach ever fired by this franchise in-season. He was very involved in the decision to hire Shane Waldron, another failure. Any praise for the team’s culture or ability to fight adversity is kind of for naught considering the losing, and that’s the roster he built.
With all that said, the 2023 trade with the Panthers isn’t the only reason for Poles to remain general manager.
While I’m not going to heap praise on a GM for merely selecting Caleb Williams No. 1, the trade with Carolina did get that pick, and there are other players on this roster who should make a transition to a new coach in 2025 easier than others. Poles acquired wide receivers DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, offensive tackle Darnell Wright, edge rusher Montez Sweat, linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards and cornerback Kyler Gordon. He extended cornerback Jaylon Johnson and tight end Cole Kmet, keeping them in Chicago.
Now, just about every one of those players has been exposed for one thing or another during the losing streak — that’s what happens in a historic losing skid. But that core is still better than what many teams have when they fire a coach. The Bears’ cap is in a good place, unlike after 2014 or after 2021. They’ve got plenty of draft capital. Poles has made other improvements in the building, though they might not translate to wins on the field.
Most GMs get a chance to hire a second head coach. Whether Poles deserves that considering how badly this season has gone can be debated, but I think the resume is better than it appears.
What happened to Cole Kmet? He had a great year last year and this year has been a ghost. Is it his play? The system? Or does Caleb just not throw it to him? — Raymond S.
In the overtime loss to the Vikings, Kmet had seven catches for 64 yards on 10 targets. In the three games since, he’s had four catches on four total targets for 40 yards. He was not even targeted in the 49ers game.
The usage of Kmet has been very erratic. Clearly, former play caller Waldron struggled to involve him in the pass game. But it hasn’t been much better — Vikings game aside — with Thomas Brown calling plays. Kmet has only four games all season with at least five targets.
“Plays are designed to be able to go through specific reads to get guys the ball,” Brown said Wednesday. “It might be just like I said before, more based on the coverage that plays out. … I try to design plays to get him the ball. But also we need to understand the guys we have on the field, how you distribute the football and also what the defense does to you that kind of dictates where the ball does go at times.
“And obviously, I want everybody to have as many touches as possible. But there is one ball and a bunch of talented guys so it’s more about the flow of the game plan and also what the opponent does to us as well.”
We’ve seen a concerted effort to get the ball in Moore’s hands, rightfully so. That hasn’t necessarily been the same for Kmet, and it looks worse when you contrast it with the way opponents are getting the ball to their tight ends in space against the Bears.
What’s noteworthy about Kmet’s season is that while it isn’t as productive as 2023 (73 catches for 719 yards on 90 targets with six touchdowns), he is posting career-best totals for catch percentage (84.3), yards per target (9.1) and success percentage (72.5 percent). When the ball is thrown to Kmet, usually good things happen.
Kmet’s catch percentage ranks second in the league among tight ends, trailing Mark Andrews.
It’s a combination of things. When an offense is 31st in passing, everything is in play. The scheme doesn’t seem to feature tight ends. Brown is right to note that there are other worthy guys to target. Kmet has been asked to help in pass protection. He should be getting the ball thrown his way more often.
Obviously, the selection of Kiran Amegadjie looks particularly suspect after his performance Monday. But considering that he missed a lot of his senior year due to injury and was being drafted from a low FCS-level school, the pick looks like a classic case of being wooed by “intangibles” (local kid, Ivy educated) and overlooking his actual abilities. This was an important pick to get right, too, because the rookie QB has obviously needed the protection. What was the thought process and where do they go from here? — Sean F.
Going back to colleague Dane Brugler’s scouting report, the Bears were not alone in thinking Amegadjie was worth a pick on Day 2 of the draft. Brugler had a third-round grade on him.
“Amegadjie is a raw prospect who needs technical and strength work before he sees live NFL reps, but his physical ingredients and competitive drive are the foundational elements that pro coaches want to develop,” Brugler wrote. “He projects as a backup left tackle as a rookie who has all the tools to gradually develop into an NFL starter.”
I think this is a case of being wooed by potential more so than intangibles, and maybe letting that cloud the fact that Amegadjie’s quad was probably worse than the team thought. Had he been able to participate in training camp and the preseason, he likely would’ve been much better prepared to get thrown in for Braxton Jones.
Still, the critique is fair. If a team is going to use a third-round pick on someone who might be counted on to play such a vital position, it needs more conviction. Amegadjie was put in a brutal spot, but he didn’t have to be in that situation. Amegadjie still has the tools to be a starter one day, and his run blocking was solid in Minnesota. As a third-round pick in a vacuum, it’s fine, but as a third-round pick by this team with its offensive line question marks and rookie at QB, maybe that wasn’t the best spot.
Some of the coaches being put up as candidates are firmly entrenched in the 3-4 defensive scheme. Does that impact their consideration? Who on this defense could improve in the 3-4, who needs to be traded or let go, and what position needs to be addressed immediately to be successful? — Tyler V.
The Bears last went through a 4-3-to-3-4 scheme change in 2015 when Vic Fangio took over. It took until 2017 for the defense to get all the parts it needed to operate at a high level.
Granted, that 2015 team required a bit of a teardown. It shouldn’t be that stark this time around if the Bears hire a defensive coordinator who runs a 30-front. Here’s a best-case scenario of how a scheme switch would impact the current starters in the front seven.
Edmunds and Edwards have played in 4-3 defenses in the NFL, but Edwards played in Wisconsin’s 3-4 scheme in college. Brugler’s 2019 scouting report referred to Edwards as a scheme-versatile player. Edmunds should have the athletic gifts to be able to play in any scheme.
On the edge, Sweat is another player who has the length and skill set to be able to rush from a 2-point stance as a 3-4 outside linebacker. The Bears would need to find another starter opposite Sweat — though it could be an easy transition for Austin Booker. Defensive end DeMarcus Walker played in Fangio’s defense in Denver as a defensive end (five-technique). He has one year left on his contract in Chicago. Defensive tackle Gervon Dexter, who’s been a three-technique in this defense, likely has the length to be a five-technique in a 3-4 defense, and Andrew Billings could handle nose.
Depending on a new defensive coach’s view of Edmunds and Edwards, two players brought in specifically for Matt Eberflus’ defense, a transition might not be too challenging.
Bears-Lions fun facts
• The Bears lead the all-time series 105-79-5 with a 61-30-4 record at home.
• Nine of the past 11 meetings between the two teams at Soldier Field have been decided by a touchdown or less.
• Jared Goff is 1-3 at Soldier Field, including last year’s 28-13 loss. He’s thrown four touchdowns and six interceptions in those four games.
• Goff is 3-8 in his career in December games that are outdoors on the road.
• Sunday will mark the second time since 1978 that the Bears are at least 6-point underdogs at home against the Lions. The last time was 2014 when they lost 20-14 with Jimmy Clausen starting at quarterback.
Game picks: Bears (+6.5) vs. Lions, Noon CT on Fox
Kevin Fishbain: Lions 45, Bears 29
(12-2 straight up, 6-8 against the spread)
Playing at home against a banged-up Lions team with a susceptible defense could allow Williams and the offense to finally get in a rhythm. But the Bears’ defense is the concern. It’s been one of the worst in the league over the past two months, and I’m not sure facing an angry Lions team — even outdoors — is ideal.
Adam Jahns: Bears 26, Lions 24
(9-5, 8-6)
A few weeks ago, I said in a bold predictions column that the Bears would beat the Lions this season. So by rule, here you have it. This is that victory. Plus, Goff is a different QB outdoors in the cold and the Lions have been ravaged by injuries.
Dan Pompei: Lions 34, Bears 16
(8-6, 4-10)
After losing four more starters to injury, the Lions will not feel sorry for themselves; rather, they may make people feel sorry for the Bears. Blindly optimistic Bears fans might take hope in the Lions’ injury situation, but the diminished Lions remain superior to the Bears in almost every way.
Jon Greenberg: Lions 27, Bears 17
(7-7, 7-7)
The Bears are averaging just under 15 points per game during their eight-game losing streak. While there’s reason to believe Williams and the offense could put points up against a Detroit defense decimated by injuries, everything in Chicago looks so broken that it’s hard to have any faith the Bears can be threatening, let alone competent. RIP The Thomas Brown Offense, we hardly knew ye.
Colton Pouncy (Lions beat writer): Lions 31, Bears 23
The Lions have not lost two games in a row since their 1-6 start in the first half of the 2022 season. Essentially 26 months. This team tends to hunker down when it’s doubted, so the Bears might be catching the Lions at a bad time. They’re motivated to win their final three games, which would lock up the NFC North and clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs. Even short-handed on defense and missing David Montgomery on offense, they still have plenty of talent and should have enough to get it done Sunday.
(Photo: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)
