As we head through Week 16, the race for the No. 1 overall pick continues to thin out. Just six teams sit at three wins or fewer this season, and only four have a realistic chance to secure the top spot in the 2025 NFL Draft.
An upset overtime victory by the Carolina Panthers all but puts them out of the running for the first pick. And while the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars remain three-win teams, the fact they’ll play each other in Week 17 coupled with the additional help needed gives both a less-than-one-percent chance of securing the top selection.
The odds continue to huddle around the two two-loss teams: the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. The Athletic’s model now gives these two teams a combined 88 percent chance to secure the pick.
New York Giants (2-13)
New York’s odds continue to rise, having a better-than-50-percent chance to secure the No. 1 pick for the first time this season. The way the Giants are currently playing, it’s no surprise the team remains in the top spot in our projections. This Sunday’s game saw Drew Lock threw two pick sixes to the Falcons defense and Atlanta had its highest-scoring game since October. The Giants’ consistently poor quarterback play lessons the possibility of New York potentially pulling off a win the next two weeks. The Giants are averaging just 11.8 points per game and 257.4 yards per game since releasing Daniel Jones in Week 10, both the lowest marks in the league over that span.
`,p(s,”class”,”credit svelte-btcuqr”),p(h,”class”,”see-all svelte-btcuqr”),p(a,”class”,”footer svelte-btcuqr”),p(t,”class”,”app-wrapper svelte-btcuqr”)},m(g,v){ce(g,t,v),Qr(n,t,null),P(t,r),P(t,a),P(a,s),P(a,c),P(a,h),f=!0,l||(d=et(h,”click”,e[4]),l=!0)},p(g,[v]){const E={};v&2&&(E.initialMetric=g[1]),n.$set(E)},i(g){f||(Jr(n.$$.fragment,g),f=!0)},o(g){go(n.$$.fragment,g),f=!1},d(g){g&&oe(t),Kr(n),l=!1,d()}}}function al(e,t,n){let{data:r}=t,{teamData:a}=t,{chartOption:s}=t;const c=ol(r.forecast_history,a,s,r.clinches),h=()=>window.location.href=`https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5698572/?page=${a.alias}`;return e.$$set=f=>{“data”in f&&n(3,r=f.data),”teamData”in f&&n(0,a=f.teamData),”chartOption”in f&&n(1,s=f.chartOption)},[a,s,c,r,h]}class ll extends ti{constructor(t){super(),ei(this,t,al,sl,Gr,{data:3,teamData:0,chartOption:1})}}new ll({target:document.getElementById(`graphics-app-${teamalias}-${chartOption}`),props:{data:JSON.parse(document.getElementById(`graphics-data-${teamalias}-${chartOption}`).textContent),teamData:JSON.parse(document.getElementById(`graphics-teamData-${teamalias}-${chartOption}`).textContent),chartOption}});
