The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions have been in control of their conferences for months. And now, with just two weeks remaining in the regular season, they’ve impressively managed to keep control over the top spots.
The Chiefs knocked off the Houston Texans on Saturday to improve to 14-1 and maintain their two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills (12-2) for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They now need only one win or one Bills loss to secure the No. 1 seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
Things will be a little more challenging for the 13-2 Lions in the NFC, but after taking care of business against the Bears on Sunday, they still control their own fate. Win their final two games of the season, and they’ll secure the first-round bye. There is one catch, however. Their final game comes against the 13-2 Minnesota Vikings. If both teams win next week, it will set up a Week 18 showdown between these two division rivals that will decide which team wins the conference — as well as the NFC North — and gets the first-round bye, while the other team will have to go on the road in the first round of the playoffs.
As for the rest of the league, here’s where things stand with only the Monday night matchup (New Orleans at Green Bay) remaining in Week 16.
Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock.
| Seed | Team | Record | Week 16 result |
|---|---|---|---|
|
z–1
|
 Chiefs |
14-1
|
W vs. HOU
|
|
z–2
|
 Bills |
12-3
|
W vs. NE
|
|
x–3
|
 Steelers |
10-5
|
L vs. BAL
|
|
z–4
|
 Texans |
9-6
|
L vs. KC
|
|
x–5
|
 Ravens |
10-5
|
W vs. PIT
|
|
6
|
 Chargers |
9-6
|
W vs. DEN
|
|
7
|
 Broncos |
9-6
|
L vs. LAC
|
x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ penchant for closing out opponents in close games starts with Patrick Mahomes, but it goes so much deeper than that. After the Texans cut it to 24-19 with 11:51 remaining Saturday, the Chiefs allowed the Texans to run only three plays and possess the ball for 97 seconds the rest of the way. Suffice it to say, you don’t want to be trailing the Chiefs in the fourth quarter.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 88.9% | To win Super Bowl: 21.6%
Buffalo Bills
After that massive victory against the Lions, the Bills were probably guilty of overlooking the Patriots and had to surprisingly eke out a 24-21 victory in Buffalo. If the Bills and Chiefs both win next week, the Bills will lock up the No. 2 seed and should strongly consider resting Josh Allen and some key starters in Week 18, especially with Allen flexing his throwing hand late in the win against the Patriots. Could it erode Allen’s cushion in the MVP race? Maybe, but who cares? This team is good enough to win the Super Bowl if Allen is healthy.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 11.1% | To win Super Bowl: 12.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are clinging to the AFC North lead despite losing two in a row and three of five. They can still take the division if they win their final two games. But is there much confidence they’ll stave off the Chiefs or finish off a sweep of the Bengals? They’ve got a legit résumé with wins against the Broncos, Chargers, Commanders and Ravens, but the Steelers seem to be lacking the firepower (when will George Pickens return?) to sustain a playoff run. They can flip that narrative on its head by stunning the Chiefs on Christmas, though.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.7%
Houston Texans
The Texans viewed this stretch against the Chiefs and Ravens as a playoff test run, and it didn’t get off to an ideal start. If they can’t hold serve at home this week against Baltimore, they’ll enter the postseason with one quality win, their victory over the Bills in Week 5. They’re inconsistent because they’re injured across the board and aren’t getting enough from their offensive line, so the Texans will be vulnerable next month.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 3.7%
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have proved they can beat just about anyone (Bills, Commanders, Buccaneers, Broncos, Chargers, Steelers) and lose to nearly anyone (Raiders, Browns). If they can win their last two games, they’ll have a solid shot to win their second consecutive division title. The Ravens should be favored in their playoff opener regardless of how the next two weeks play out, but for Lamar Jackson to win back-to-back playoff games for the first time in his career, he’ll almost certainly have to topple the Chiefs or Bills in the divisional round.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 5.8%
Los Angeles Chargers
That was a good win Thursday against the Broncos to avoid a three-game losing streak against teams in the playoff field, but a bigger issue is beginning to surface. The Chargers, who were ranked No. 1 in points allowed for much of the season, have allowed at least 27 points in four of their last six games. Related, Justin Herbert has thrown at least 30 passes in five of the past six games. (He attempted 30 passes in just three of his first nine games.) They’ve also run for 100 yards in just one of their last five games after doing so in six of their first 10. It’s a tough time to be changing their identity.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 94%| To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.8%
Denver Broncos
The Broncos had a 24-13 lead midway through the third quarter against the Chargers and were closing in on their best win of the season before the defense allowed touchdowns on three of their next four series on their way to a loss. This could wind up being the difference between visiting Buffalo or the AFC North champs in the wild-card round.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 75.3% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.5%
`,p(s,"class","credit svelte-btcuqr"),p(h,"class","see-all svelte-btcuqr"),p(a,"class","footer svelte-btcuqr"),p(t,"class","app-wrapper svelte-btcuqr")},m(g,v){ce(g,t,v),Qr(n,t,null),P(t,r),P(t,a),P(a,s),P(a,c),P(a,h),f=!0,l||(d=et(h,"click",e[4]),l=!0)},p(g,[v]){const E={};v&2&&(E.initialMetric=g[1]),n.$set(E)},i(g){f||(Jr(n.$$.fragment,g),f=!0)},o(g){go(n.$$.fragment,g),f=!1},d(g){g&&oe(t),Kr(n),l=!1,d()}}}function al(e,t,n){let{data:r}=t,{teamData:a}=t,{chartOption:s}=t;const c=ol(r.forecast_history,a,s,r.clinches),h=()=>window.location.href=`https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5698572/?page=${a.alias}`;return e.$$set=f=>{"data"in f&&n(3,r=f.data),"teamData"in f&&n(0,a=f.teamData),"chartOption"in f&&n(1,s=f.chartOption)},[a,s,c,r,h]}class ll extends ti{constructor(t){super(),ei(this,t,al,sl,Gr,{data:3,teamData:0,chartOption:1})}}new ll({target:document.getElementById(`graphics-app-${teamalias}-${chartOption}`),props:{data:JSON.parse(document.getElementById(`graphics-data-${teamalias}-${chartOption}`).textContent),teamData:JSON.parse(document.getElementById(`graphics-teamData-${teamalias}-${chartOption}`).textContent),chartOption}});
