The tricky game of evaluating QBs out of the transfer portal: 'So many things you don't know'

23 December 2024Last Update :
The tricky game of evaluating QBs out of the transfer portal: 'So many things you don't know'

David Yost has been coaching quarterbacks at college football’s highest level since 1996.

His method of evaluating the sport’s most important position has not changed much over the years.

The former offensive coordinator at FIU, Texas Tech, Utah State and Missouri has a checklist he uses to identify players he would like to coach.

Does the height and weight match what is listed? Does his athleticism match my team’s needs? Can I live with the way the ball gets released from his hand? Does he complete deep passes? 

What’s changed over time for Yost is the importance he’s put on accuracy and the ability to make anticipatory throws into tight windows — something he learned while working for Mike Leach as the wide receivers coach at Washington State from 2013-15.

“Coach (Leach) wanted to know what the guy’s completion percentage was,” Yost said. “So what I want to see is the last 100 plays of whatever season you just completed. Of that, I’m hoping to get 75 throws to try to get what I refer to as a true completion percentage. Not screens. What’s your completion percentage when you’re throwing the ball down the field? If you hit the guy in the hands, but he dropped it, I call it a completion. If you throw it badly and he makes an incredible catch, it’s an incompletion. If you find a QB above 50, 55 percent, that’s a pretty accurate thrower at the high school level to me.

“The guys who hit that number or above, they usually end up becoming guys who complete everything when they get to college. The guys I didn’t take who didn’t hit that number, most don’t ever end up becoming accurate throwers.”

The problem for Yost and other longtime coaches is that high school recruiting and player development are no longer the primary methods employed by college football teams to fill their quarterback needs. That’s given way to the transfer portal.

Of the 141 FBS quarterbacks who started at least five games this season, more than half (76) were plucked out of the portal. And 30 of the top 50 quarterbacks in passing efficiency were on their second (at least) stop in college.

So, how do coaches identify the right guys, put them in the right system and avoid a big swing-and-miss that can sabotage a season and set a program back financially due to misappropriated NIL funds?

Yost typically prefers a quarterback who has played a lot of snaps.

“The guys who have played, no matter what level they’ve played at, they may not be a great quarterback, but they’re probably a pretty good player,” he said. “If you’re a pretty good player at D2, FCS or Group of 5, it’ll probably translate at the next stop up. It does translate. Like what Indiana did with (Kurtis) Rourke. He was a good player at Ohio. Guess what, he was a good player at Indiana. The risk is taking the guy who hasn’t played as much.”

There is ample evidence that supports Yost’s theory.

• Rourke started 34 games at Ohio and was named 2022 MAC Offensive Player of the Year before earning second-team All-Big Ten honors in his only season at Indiana.

• Cam Ward was a second-team FCS All-American at Incarnate Word before starring at Washington State and Miami.

• Dillon Gabriel threw for 7,223 yards in his two healthy seasons at UCF before moving on to Oklahoma and Oregon.

• Diego Pavia guided New Mexico State to 10 wins before leading Vanderbilt to a 6-6 record in 2024 — highlighted by a win over Alabama — and its first bowl game since 2018.

When coaches recruit a quarterback who has not played much at his previous stop, it’s important to talk to as many people as possible to find answers for the following questions:

Did he have a bad attitude? Did he practice hard? Did he continue to compete even after he failed to earn the starting role?

“It doesn’t matter if it’s college or the NFL, it’s hard,” said a Group of 5 offensive coordinator who was granted anonymity so he could speak candidly. “It’s hard to know exactly what you’re getting from a talent standpoint, from a mental make and all those types of things. It’s hard. You just never know what habits they form from a year at a program. There are so many things you don’t know.”

The coordinator said his program took two quarterbacks out of the portal last cycle, but they were players he was familiar with from camps and the high school recruiting trail.

He also made the point that the sport’s newfound reliance on transfers has affected the way some programs build an offense.

“One thing I think and it sucks because it hurts the long-term development of these quarterbacks — it forces you as coordinators and play callers, you’ve got to stay simple,” he said. “Very rarely are you going to be able to build a system and have multiple players, quarterback included, in it for two or three years. So you’ve got to simplify things. … Some of these people who run pro-style stuff, they’ve got to rethink or retool some of the stuff they do and believe in because if they don’t, you’re putting a lot on these guys. It’s basically asking a rookie quarterback to go play in the NFL while learning a difficult system. That’s not going to go well.”

To mitigate further risk, another ex-G5 coordinator said he usually targets more athletic quarterbacks in the portal.

“You’re always a little bit safer to take an athletic kid,” he said. “Even if he can’t throw it that great, he can do something for you at that position. You can have a package for him to run. That’s the safer thing. That’s why so many people are looking for dual-threats now, whereas the pure pocket passer that doesn’t work out is sort of stuck in the mud. There’s still a lot of kids that can throw the ball and work in your system, but you’re less likely to make a mistake in terms of value by taking the more athletic guy.”

Yost’s last quarterback, FIU’s Keyone Jenkins, ranked 21st nationally in passing efficiency in 2024. Jenkins entered the portal after coach Mike MacIntyre was fired along with Yost but decided this week to return to school.

Yost didn’t have a lot of time to develop Jenkins. He was FIU’s starting quarterback by his second game as a true freshman. Jenkins beat out veteran Grayson James, who transferred to Boston College and took over as the Eagles’ starter late in the 2024 season. James forced Thomas Castellanos out. Castellanos is now at Florida State, which is hoping to bounce back after a disastrous season that went off the rails due in large part to a poor evaluation (DJ Uiagalelei) out of the portal.

Will Castellanos be the answer? Who knows.

But one thing is clear: The game of quarterback musical chairs is not slowing down.

Coaches will continue to search for answers. And many will continue to swing-and-miss.

“Fit and system matters,” a Big 12 offensive coordinator said. “But to me, not everyone is going to bat 100 percent. Regardless of how you do it, at times you are going to (misevaluate) that position.”

(Top photo of Kurtis Rourke: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)