The Steelers have lost 3 of 5 and are slumping on offense. Here's why I'm not too worried

(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Dec. 23, 2024.)

3. The Steelers have lost three of their past five and are slumping on offense. Here’s why I’m not too worried.

Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin pointed to ineffective run defense and killer turnovers in explaining his team’s 34-17 defeat to the Baltimore Ravens. The diagnosis seemed accurate. It did not seem foreboding.

• The run defense shouldn’t be too concerning because the Ravens are so good on the ground.

Excluding kneeldown plays, Baltimore is the only team to rush for at least 100 yards in every game this season. The Ravens are one of eight teams since 2000 to hit that mark in the first 15 games of a season, joining a list that also includes the 2019, 2020 and 2023 Ravens. The Eagles had a 14-game streak to start this season until the Steelers held them under 100 in Week 15.

• The two killer turnovers Tomlin mentioned cost the Steelers 12.0 EPA, accounting for most of the final score differential. The fumble Russell Wilson lost after a 19-yard scramble to the Baltimore 4-yard line came with the score tied in the second quarter. The pick six Wilson threw early in the fourth doubled the Ravens’ lead to 14 points.

These had the feel of one-off plays, but this was also the third consecutive game Pittsburgh finished with -10.0 EPA or worse on offense. The Steelers haven’t had a longer streak within a season since 2003, per TruMedia.

Wasn’t this offense supposed to be better with Wilson replacing Justin Fields?

The Steelers’ formula for winning — play good defense, run the ball, protect the ball and hit explosive downfield plays in the passing game — seems broken with No. 1 receiver George Pickens sidelined for the past three games. Pittsburgh is 8-1 this season when Pickens has at least 50 yards, which is average production for a starting receiver. The Steelers are 2-4 otherwise.

Wilson’s numbers with and without Pickens on the field seem striking.

Wilson’s EPA per play splits with and without Pickens widen further when removing drives that ended in fumbles and/or interceptions. This suggests the numbers in the chart do not simply reflect a couple of costly turnover plays that happened when Pickens was not available.

How quickly and how well Pickens returns from his hamstring injury — Tomlin has left the door open for him to play Wednesday against the Chiefs — appears to be the key variable for Wilson and the Steelers.

(Photo of Russell Wilson and George Pickens: Ian Johnson / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)