The next two weeks will reveal plenty about what the future holds for the Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold.
On this Week 16 Sunday, in the moments after Darnold maneuvered through the Seattle Seahawks’ pass rush to deliver the winning 39-yard touchdown strike to Justin Jefferson, those looming games against the 10-4 Green Bay Packers and 13-2 Detroit Lions could wait.
“Sam Darnold will be a Viking next year unless he bombs in the playoffs,” read the text from a veteran NFL player agent.
This impromptu conversation quickly grew to include NFL coaches and executives as the Vikings notched their eighth consecutive victory, 27-24, in running their record to an improbable 13-2.
Only the 1999 Kurt Warner-led St. Louis Rams have exceeded expectations through 15 games to a greater degree than these Vikings over the past 36 seasons, according to historic Vegas preseason win totals.
Those Rams, like these Vikings, had lost their franchise quarterback to a season-ending knee injury in preseason. They later traded their starter, Trent Green, after Warner led them to Super Bowl glory.
The Vikings are not there yet, but how they proceed with Darnold — who is on a one-year contract — and injured rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy got a little more fascinating after Darnold sliced that fourth-quarter pass through Seattle’s coverage a half-tick before pass rusher Dre’Mont Jones blasted him.
This Darnold to Jefferson connection is too clean.
📺: #MINvsSEA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/xHhVDimIM2— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
The Pick Six column shares thoughts and ideas from the agent, personnel and coaching worlds in handicapping where the biggest surprise story of the season goes from here. The full menu:
• Sorting through Vikings’ dynamics
• Not open-heart surgery for Mahomes
• How worried should Steelers be?
• Rams: Most physical team in division
• Lions’ injuries simply bad luck?
• 2-minute drill: Penix’s strong debut
1. The Vikings aren’t just the most surprising team this season. They’re among the most surprising teams of the past 36 seasons. That will have implications for their QB (and their head coach).
The Vikings have already exceeded their Vegas preseason win total (6.5) by 6.5. That is tied for the second-best differential among 1,711 teams through 15 games since 1989, according to Pro Football Reference.
| Tm (Vegas Wins) | 15-Game W-L | Wins Over Vegas |
|---|---|---|
|
13-2
|
+7.5
|
|
|
13-2
|
+6.5
|
|
|
14-1
|
+6.5
|
|
|
11-4
|
+6.5
|
|
|
13-2
|
+6.5
|
|
|
13-2
|
+6.0
|
|
|
14-1
|
+5.5
|
|
|
10-5
|
+5.5
|
|
|
14-1
|
+5.5
|
|
|
11-4
|
+5.5
|
Multiple other teams in the top 10 over this 36-year period also enjoyed quarterback awakenings, sometimes leading to dilemmas.
Beyond the 1999 Rams, there were the 2004 San Diego Chargers, who got a breakout season from Drew Brees and stuck with him another year, despite having used a top-five pick to acquire Philip Rivers in 2004. There were standout rookies on the list, from 2004 Ben Roethlisberger to 2008 Matt Ryan, plus a 1999 Peyton Manning in his second season.
The 1998 Vikings with Randall Cunningham are there. They drafted Daunte Culpepper in the 1999 first round, moving on from Cunningham a year later.
Cunningham was turning 36. Darnold, who is scheduled to hit free agency in March, turns 28 in June. His 32 touchdown passes rank fifth in the league. He ranks fourth in passer rating (105.4) behind Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. His 45 sacks taken explains why he ranks lower (14th) in EPA per pass play. He’s tied with Patrick Mahomes for fifth in NFL MVP odds (+10000), per BetMGM.
Against that backdrop, we pick up the conversation with league insiders.
Exec No. 1: “This season has proved Sam needs Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, (T.J.). Hockenson, one of the grittiest offensive lines and a top back in Aaron Jones. If you are Minnesota, you wave goodbye to Sam, wish him luck and hope he signs for $50 million with some team that thinks they are a quarterback away, but doesn’t have all those things Minnesota has. You get the premium comp pick, you found your next Sam Darnold in Daniel Jones and you already have your draft pick (McCarthy) ready to go. That is what a smart organization does.”
Exec No. 2: “I agree, except for the Daniel Jones piece. Jones isn’t a real option.”
Exec No. 3: “What if they just franchise-tagged Darnold, which then keeps McCarthy in play for the future?”
Agent: “They can afford that. What they can’t afford is turning it over to a rookie coming off a season-ending injury. The only Darnold caveat at this point is the playoffs.”
Could there be a compromise solution?
The 2011 49ers (7.5 preseason Vegas win total) went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game with a reborn Alex Smith behind center. They had used a 2011 second-round pick on Colin Kaepernick but were in no rush to play him. Smith, then 27, had bonded with new coach Jim Harbaugh after struggling under different coaches for years. He wanted to stay, but the 49ers weren’t interested in a market-setting extension.
San Francisco let Smith test the market at a time when Peyton Manning was the most coveted free agent in years (and Harbaugh met with Manning covertly before the QB signed with Denver). Smith didn’t find what he was looking for elsewhere. He re-signed with the 49ers on a deal with the No. 20 annual average among quarterbacks, got hurt midway through the next season, watched Kaepernick start in the Super Bowl and was soon traded to Kansas City.
Exec No. 2: “To get a compromise deal from Darnold, the Vikings have to be willing to let him hit the market.”
Agent: “That’s the last thing Minnesota should do. Too many teams need QBs.”
Exec No. 2: “It’s really not that scary. Some teams are picking high and will draft QBs. Some won’t be able to afford it. Tennessee could be interesting.”
Coach: “If I’m Darnold and the Vikings move on from me, whatever Brock Purdy wants from the 49ers, I want less. If he says to San Francisco, ‘I’ll be your starting quarterback for $15 million a year or whatever and Brock Purdy is asking for $45 million, how does San Francisco sit there and say Brock Purdy is the guy they are going with?”
Exec No. 2: “What is the difference between Darnold and Baker Mayfield? That should be instructive for his market.”
Mayfield re-signed with Tampa Bay for $33 million per year, which ranks 18th among quarterback averages. He knew the Buccaneers did not have his replacement lined up. He knew Tampa Bay was interested in re-signing him. Darnold’s market could suffer if the Vikings like McCarthy enough to move forward with the Michigan product, which was always their plan anyway.
What’s the requirements for this Coach of The Year thing again? Asking for a friend
— J.J. McCarthy (@jjmccarthy09) December 23, 2024
There are other fascinating implications for this breakout Vikings season. Coach Kevin O’Connell has no contract beyond the 2025 season. His star is growing with every successful start from Darnold. He’ll likely drive whatever quarterback decision the Vikings make. He only figures to gain influence within the organization if he continues to stack the victories. He’s already the first coach in Vikings history with two 13-win seasons.
But first, the playoffs. Minnesota can secure the top seed in the NFC and the conference’s only bye by winning its final two games against Green Bay (at home) and Detroit (on the road). The Athletic’s projection model puts the Vikings’ chances at 28 percent, behind the Lions (66 percent) and ahead of the Eagles (6 percent).
Of course, that same model projected a 7-10 record for the Vikings entering the season, with a 17 percent shot at the playoffs and a less than 1 percent likelihood of securing the NFC’s top seed.
That was then. This is now.
We opened this discussion with a look at the teams since 1989 that outperformed their preseason expectations by the widest margins to this point in a season. We now circle back to see how those teams fared in the playoffs.
Six of these extreme overachievers were 13-2 or better, just like the current Vikings. Three reached the Super Bowl (the 1999 Rams won it, while the 1998 Falcons and 2015 Panthers fell short). The 2004 Steelers and (gulp) 1998 Vikings reached conference title games. Only the 1999 Colts and 2004 Chargers failed to advance in the playoffs.
Pretty good company, all things considered.
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