Welcome back for another season of fantasy football speculation, using our patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then for all the last-minute managers on-the-go, I’m adding a new section — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
As I started gathering obscure data, I realized something. The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals courtesy of Trumedia. In searching for a fantasy quarterback of course we need volume but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth’s established, it’s on to charting EPA/Attempt and NextGen stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (images below)
Sometimes a couple of pictures are worth a thousand words. I’m in line with our charting that the best QB target is Geno Smith, the only player above average in all four metrics (above and to the right of the crosses). Even without rushing, the Seahawks possess the playmakers to boost Geno’s fantasy value with yards after the catch — and if last weekend was any indication, we could be on the verge of a major Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout. The pick may even stick for a few weeks — Seattle’s got a softish schedule on the horizon with the with a less than intimidating lineup of Dolphins, Lions, and Giants upcoming.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the usual suspects — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Carson Steele, Braelon Allen and Samaje Perine have a home before you going deep-league dumpster diving. Last year I proved success by pivoting away from the lowest hanging fruit in total touches. Instead I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ballcarriers showing top-tier efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize them as a speculative add.
8 Available RBs w/+44.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (min 8 Touches)
- Cam Akers, HOU — 61.5% Touch/Snap%
- Trey Benson, ARI — 53.3% Touch/Snap%
- Antonio Gibson, NE — 51.4% Touch/Snap%
- Jamaal Williams, NO — 51.3% Touch/Snap%
- Ray Davis, BUF — 50.0% Touch/Snap%
- D’Onta Foreman, CLE — 48.4% Touch/Snap%
- Ty Chandler, MIN — 47.70% Touch/Snap%
- Tank Bigsby, JAX — 44.4% Touch/Snap%
6 Available RBs w/+0.40 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Alexander Mattison, LV — 0.46 Fan Pt/Snap
- Antonio Gibson, NE — 0.45 Fan Pt/Snap
- Tyler Allgeier, ATL — 0.44 Fan Pt/Snap
- Tank Bigsby, JAX — 0.43 Fan Pt/Snap
- Jamaal Williams, NO — 0.43 Fan Pt/Snap
- Ty Chandler, MIN — 0.41 Fan Pt/Snap
Always focused on the clearest pathway to a featured role in a plus offense, the most opportunistic play has to be Houston’s Cam Akers. As of Thursday, neither Joe Mixon nor Dameon Pierce had practiced. It’s also feasible that given the combination of Akers’ injury history and explosive preseason, he was put on the shelf for precisely this reason — as the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency bell-cow option. A hamstring injury just robbed us of Deebo Samuel for a month out of nowhere and similar news from Houston could be just around the corner. Akers became a popular deep-league claim, but he’s still only 9% rostered according to Yahoo’s transaction trends. Change that. Now.
Wide Receivers
Like RBs, just make sure this week’s universal adds Rashid Shaheed, Quentin Johnston, Josh Downs, Darnell Mooney, and Jauan Jennings belong to a squad already. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — it’s precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above average amount of looks while doing it.
Available WRs w/ +14 Routes Run Per Game, +17% Targets Per Route and +0.20 Fantasy Points Per Route
- Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG — 28.5 Rte/Gm, 28.1% TPRR, 0.38 FPS/Rte
- Greg Dortch, ARI — 19.0 Rte/Gm, 26.3% TPRR, 0.37 FPS/Rte
- Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL — 25.0 Rte/Gm, 24.0% TPRR, 0.33 FPS/Rte
- K.J. Osborn, NE — 17.0 Rte/Gm, 23.5% TPRR, 0.20 FPS/Rte
- Olamide Zaccheaus, WAS — 14.0 Rte/Gm, 21.4% TPRR, 0.25 FPS/Rte
- Josh Reynolds, DEN — 35.0 Rte/Gm, 18.6% TPRR, 0.33 FPS/Rte
- Alec Pierce, IND — 27.0 Rte/Gm, 18.5% TPRR, 0.71 FPS/Rte
- Xavier Legette, CAR — 19.0 Rte/Gm, 18.4% TPRR, 0.20 FPS/Rte
- Gabe Davis, JAX — 28.5 Rte/Gm, 17.5% TPRR, 0.29 FPS/Rte
- Tyler Johnson, LAR — 29.0 Rte/Gm, 17.2% TPRR, 0.29 FPS/Rte
- Jalen Tolbert, DAL — 32.5 Rte/Gm, 16.9% TPRR, 0.25 FPS/Rte
The free agent cupboard is mostly full of slot receivers. While they have their place in PPR formats, we’re looking for our additions to stick, preferably with a good offense. With that in mind, one wideout stands out for me, Dallas’ Jalen Tolbert. I love the chance to finally realize post-hype potential in a prolific passing scheme. Tolbert’s almost exclusively relegated to 3-WR sets for now, but he still currently sits second among Cowboys WRs in targets, catches, and yards. Even without an injury, he’s got a projectable fantasy floor that comes with a chance of a true breakout through continuity.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top adds Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki aren’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism. This may very well wind up as an exercise in futility, but there’s no retreat and no surrender in these fantasy streets. I’ve since incorporated high-value red zone targets to complete the trifecta, but for now only three tight ends check all three boxes.
3 TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +7.0 Air Yards Per Target, and +0.5 Red Zone Target/Game
- Brenton Strange, JAX — 13.0% Team Tgt%, 13.7 AY/Tar, 1 RZ Tar
- Hayden Hurst, LAC — 11.4% Team Tgt%, 7.4 AY/Tar, 1 RZ Tar
- Foster Moreau, NO — 10.3% Team Tgt%, 8.8 AY/Tar, 1 RZ Tar
Per Ian Rapoport, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson says TE Evan Engram, who injured his hamstring in pre-game warmups this past Sunday “is a little bit further away” and it sounds like he’s at least very much up in the air for Monday Night Football. Given the Jaguars’ TE usage and how bad the positional landscape has been, do not wait to add Brenton Strange. After the recent Christian McCaffrey fiasco, don’t expect any sort of injury optimism from me. Be proactive and assume Engram will miss several weeks.
Top Stashes
- QB — Michael Penix, ATL
- RB — Jonathon Brooks, CAR
- WR — Rome Odunze, CHI
Week 3 Sunday Streaming Service (>35% Rostered per Yahoo!)
- QB — Geno Smith, SEA vs MIA
- RB — Cam Akers, HOU at MIN
- RB — Alexander Mattison, LV vs CAR
- WR — Jalen Tolbert, DAL vs BAL
- WR — Jonathan Mingo, CAR @ LV
- TE — Brenton Strange, JAX @ BUF
- K — Matt Prater, ARI @ DET
- DST — Raiders vs CAR
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for custom projections plus all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Cam Akers: Tim Warner/Getty Images)
