Marcus Rashford's form: Why it disappeared and the signs it's coming back

The drought is over.

After 181 days and 12 matches, Marcus Rashford was back on the scoresheet for Manchester United last weekend, netting the second goal in a much-needed 3-0 win against Southampton, followed by two more against Barnsley in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday evening.

Rashford’s start to the 2024-25 season had been far from ideal. In the first three league matches, he failed to attempt a single shot and spent most of his time isolated wide on the left, though he did create two excellent chances for Joshua Zirkzee against Liverpool.

Against Southampton, he linked up with Zirkzee to operate in the left half-space, with full-back Diogo Dalot making more overlapping runs. A comparison of his touchmaps (below) against Southampton and Liverpool illustrates how he exploited that area between the left wing and central of the pitch.

His goal was the product of an accurate finish arrowed into the bottom-right corner from the edge of the box.

Goals in the Premier League have not come easily for Rashford since he scored twice in United’s 3-0 win over Leicester City back in February 2023. He ended the 2022-23 season — one in which he scored 17 league goals — with just three in his final 11 league games. The 2023-24 season saw him scored just seven times in 33 appearances.

Rashford’s inconsistency is worrying for United, who handed him a five-year contract last summer that made him one of the Premier League’s highest earners. When United have looked out of sorts, he has followed suit.

Rashford is a part of the problem, but there seems to be little clarity on an important question: what do Manchester United want from their star forward?

Ten Hag has repeatedly insisted that Rashford’s displays depend on the team — but the manager’s messaging becomes muddled when we try to understand exactly how he expects Rashford to play. This was most evident when Ten Hag discussed the fans’ boos after United lost to Liverpool this month.

In his post-match press conference, Ten Hag said, “’Rashy’ can play centre-forward and one of the ideas was to bring off Zirkzee and Alejandro Garnacho and leaving Rashford on. He created two very good chances. If he keeps working, keeps fighting like he is now, it will come and he will score goals.”

So, is Rashford’s role to create chances for the centre-forward or come off the left flank into the box and score regularly? He has the ability to do both as he showed in the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, when he racked up 45 goals and 22 assists in 103 league matches.

United’s overall decline contributed to Rashford’s regression. Ten Hag’s emphasis on transitional football in the 2022-23 season stemmed from a stable defence, protected by Casemiro, that conceded only 43 goals in 38 Premier League games.

This meant United regularly forced turnovers high up the pitch or sucked in opponents before hitting them on the break. Getting the ball to Rashford in these situations allowed him to run at retreating defenders, resulting in better chances.

As the solid base from 2022-23 eroded last season, United’s performances in attacking transitions dropped, demonstrated by the numbers below.

(‘Direct attacks’ are defined as “possessions that start in a team’s defensive half and result in a shot or touch inside the opposition penalty area within 15 seconds”.)

Injuries did not help Ten Hag’s case, but his tactical inflexibility cost the team. Most of Rashford’s best moments last season came when United moved the ball up the pitch quickly, with some examples in the GIF below.

Rashford’s explosive speed and tricks make him a formidable threat when he has space to run into. However, he can struggle against more settled defences that deny him opportunities to cut inside and shoot. He often performs better when partnered with an attacking left-back who is comfortable making overlapping runs. Luke Shaw is United’s best option but injuries have restricted his game time.

As Shaw’s availability oscillates, so does Rashford’s form. Across the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, Shaw played 87 league matches, averaging 29 appearances per season, well over his career mean of 20.9. Last season, Shaw played just 12 times and is yet to make an appearance this season.

How Rashford’s form and Shaw’s availability have fluctuated

United’s backup options behind Shaw present different profiles that sometimes clash with Rashford’s skill set. Sergio Reguilon and Aaron Wan-Bissaka, who have since left, were slower to get forward, especially in transitions. Dalot (and, on occasion, Sofyan Amrabat) preferred to ‘invert’ into central areas and use their stronger right foot to make passes. The sequences below may have panned out very differently for Rashford and United if Shaw had been at left-back.

The other key aspect is how Rashford’s positioning changes when United use a more traditional centre-forward. He is instructed to stay wider when United use a more fixed-point No 9 (such as Edinson Cavani, who played frequently in the 2020-21 season) and not clog up central areas.

The heatmap below shows where Rashford received passes on average across the last seasons. The 2021-22 campaign when United signed Cristiano Ronaldo and used Rashford on the wings stands out as one of his least productive seasons for United as he rarely came into the penalty area to contribute with goals or assists.

In the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2022-23 season, Rashford received more passes in the left half-spaces close to the box where he is most dangerous and often interchanged positions with Anthony Martial, who offered greater fluidity in his movement and link-up play than Ronaldo, Cavani or Romelu Lukaku before him.

This also meant Rashford got to take more shots from central areas within the box, rather than in wider spaces as he did last season, resulting in lower-quality chances.

Last season, Rashford linked up well with Rasmus Hojlund on occasion, but often seemed to stay wider, as evidenced by his passing solar. Dalot’s positioning (behind and on the right) suggests he often inverted into midfield, which also meant Rashford had to stay wide for United to stretch defences.

As a result, Rashford attempted 1.4 crosses from open play per 90 minutes in the league last season, almost double his rate of 0.8 per 90 in 2022-23, while many of his shooting metrics suffered significant drop-offs as well.

Rashford’s shooting is another aspect that requires attention. He can be erratic with his shots as he often prioritises power over placement. As The Athletic’s Michael Cox explained earlier this year, a highlight reel of Rashford’s goals suggests he is an expert in side-footed finishing, but these are frequently overshadowed by his efforts to slam the ball home or attempt long-range knuckleball shots. This also means Rashford has a tendency to snatch at presentable shooting opportunities when frustrated. A more relaxed and confident Rashford finds it easier to generate the composed finish that often brings him a goal.

His shot volume predictably suffered last season as he moved away from goal. To rectify this, he needed to improve the quality of his shot when he got into favourable positions but could not do so.

Rashford’s struggles in 2023-24 after a successful 2022-23

Fortunately there are positive signs this season. Rashford looked closer to his best against Southampton, recording four shots and getting three of those on target. Interestingly enough, the first — also his first shot of the season — came after he was slipped in by Amad in transition and he forced a good near-post save from Aaron Ramsdale. The second, a precise rather than powerful finish, led to his goal, while the third again came in transition with a right-footed effort from the edge of the box that was deflected over.

The final shot reflected the renewed confidence Rashford’s goal seemed to have given him as he took Ramsdale on from outside the box, with the goalkeeper stretching to palm it over.

He connected well with Zirkzee, whose link-up play ensured Amad and Rashford got into good positions. Just four games in, Zirkzee seems to be playing closer to Rashford than Hojlund did last season and that is encouraging. More overlapping runs from Dalot and Shaw’s eventual return from injury should help Rashford as well.

The challenge for Ten Hag will be to piece together a side that brings out the best in Hojlund, Zirkzee and Rashford, once the Dane returns.

United also need to be clearer on what they expect from Rashford. There is little evidence to suggest Rashford can be a 30-goal forward season-on-season, but recording 15-20 goals and 10-12 assists across all competitions in most campaigns is achievable.

That his first goal of this season came in one of United’s most controlled performances of the Ten Hag era rather than one rooted in transitional play provides further cause for optimism. The brace against Barnsley should also boost his confidence. Rashford, playing as a centre-forward, took his defender on with confidence for his first goal, which came in transition, and scored his second with a composed left-footed finish from that left half-space after Barnsley gave the ball away near their own penalty box.

A confident finish 🎯

❤️ @MarcusRashford#MUFC || #CarabaoCup

— Manchester United (@ManUtd) September 18, 2024

When he returns to his usual spot on the left wing, Rashford needs to work on improving his decision-making, particularly with respect to off-the-ball application and shooting. He also needs to be more imposing on games and find ways to contribute even when the set-up around him is nullified by injuries or better quality opposition, a trait that made him stand out when he broke into the side under Louis van Gaal.

The wins over Southampton and Barnsley have brought reason to believe Rashford is slowly rediscovering his best form. It will be up to both the player and his manager to ensure the recent improvement can be maintained and built upon for the rest of 2024-25.

(Photo: Visionhaus/Getty Images)