By Scott Dochterman, Austin Meek, Antonio Morales, Mitch Sherman, Audrey Snyder, Cameron Teague Robinson and Jesse Temple
Big Ten conference play begins in earnest this week. You had questions about the league. Here are our answers.
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
What is the percentage likelihood that USC could win a national championship this year? — Simon R.
According to our projections by Austin Mock, the Trojans have a 4 percent chance of winning the title this year. But the better news is they have a 69 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff. And they have the potential to win a game if health permits, though I wouldn’t like their chances if they had to win three or four consecutive games against elite teams. That takes such a physical toll, and USC doesn’t have a ton of depth on the offensive line. One injury there could thrust a particularly inexperienced player into a major role. And the defensive line is probably a pass rusher or two short from making noise at a high-end level. USC has looked better than I expected but still has room to grow as it tries to build upon its foundation over the next few years. — Morales
When do we start hearing James Franklin’s name associated with the Florida job, just so Penn State extends him for no reason like they did when the USC job opened? — Anthony C.
Ah yes, the coaching carousel is always spinning, and more often than not Penn State’s head coach is mentioned as a candidate. You just linked him to it (even though the Florida job is still filled by Billy Napier), so now it’s out there forever.
A quick refresher: When Franklin signed his contract that went into effect January 2022, the buyout terms were extremely lopsided. If Franklin wants to leave now, he’d owe Penn State $2 million. If Penn State wants to part ways without cause, the head coach at this point would be owed $56 million. In short: Penn State isn’t parting ways with him. This is a Playoff-caliber team, and even if Penn State doesn’t make the Playoff, I struggle to see any real pressure because of that buyout.
Franklin talks a lot about alignment among himself, the university president, the president of the board of trustees and athletic director Pat Kraft. He’s said many times in the past two years that the alignment is good, which hasn’t always been the case. Yes, Penn State has challenges that it has largely been able to overcome with recruiting players to an isolated location and figuring out name, image and likeness with a fan base that like many others feels donor fatigue.
Do I see a world where Franklin choses to return to the SEC at a place where there are fewer NIL hurdles? Possibly. Is there a more direct path to a national title at Florida? Probably. However, at this particular juncture of his career, with what he’s built, Penn State is on solid footing. There’s a window open to go on a Playoff run.
Now, if this current Penn State team — one with lots of third-year players — somehow doesn’t make the Playoff ? Would Franklin be tempted to buy himself out and try to rebuild elsewhere? Keep in mind, Penn State’s staff has recruited Florida well. Running backs coach Ja’Juan Seider, of Belle Glade, Fla., has strong ties to the state. Offensive line coach Phil Trautwein played at Florida during the Tim Tebow era. Who knows what Franklin wants at this stage of his career. I’ve learned to never say never in this sport. — Snyder
Indiana stan here. Right now, our way-too-early-to-mean-anything success is being questioned due to a lack in strength of schedule (which is totally fair, doubt us while you can). Now that the Big Ten is 18 teams with less regular opponents (like the East/West or Legends/Leaders days) and the nonconference has been reduced to three matchups, how much of a team’s success have we ceded to the schedulers at the Big Ten? — Duncan H.
Schedule always matters in a team’s success in a league this large, but it doesn’t consider how much teams change from year to year. Indiana’s 2024 schedule includes Washington, Michigan and Ohio State within a four-game block. If you’re viewing it through a 2023 lens, it appears pretty daunting. That view may have changed. Perhaps if your 2024 schedule included Indiana, Rutgers or Nebraska, your thoughts might be different today than in 2023 when five years’ worth of schedules were completed.
While every team’s success will fluctuate each year, the intent was to ensure every team’s schedule was competitively fair yet strong enough to contend for a Playoff berth. Big Ten chief operating officer Kerry Kenny and scheduling czar Kevin Pauga tried to balance the schedules in multiple ways. They first split the teams into two groups of nine, then three groups of six and finally six groups of three. Annually, every team will play exactly five games and four games from each group of nine. It took version 262 to achieve the required scheduling balance. — Dochterman
Which second-division Big Ten school (Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA) is the first to a 10-win season (not necessarily this season)? — Reggie C.
I’ll side with Nebraska, and in the immediate future. The Cornhuskers are already 3-0 with a big Friday night game against Illinois. Matt Rhule has continued Nebraska’s defensive success from last year and freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola is already off to a strong start. Maybe it doesn’t happen this year, although the schedule is favorable outside of road games at Ohio State and USC. A close second for me would be Illinois, although I do love what Greg Schiano has going at Rutgers. — Teague Robinson
Do you think Maryland coach Mike Locksley is on the hot seat? Love his passion and energy, but it’s hard to expect different results when the team has the same issues in Year 6 as it did in Year 1. — Sammy T.
Not yet. Maryland just had its best three-year stretch since the early 2000s, notching bowl victories in three consecutive seasons for the first time in school history. Granted, winning the Music City Bowl doesn’t mean what it used to, and any Big Ten coach who isn’t regularly contending for a spot in the expanded Playoff is likely to be feeling some heat. But you have to remember where Maryland was when Locksley took over. The D.J. Durkin era was a dark chapter in Maryland history, and it’s a testament to Maryland’s progress that fans are no longer satisfied with eight-win seasons.
The knock on Locksley is that Maryland doesn’t have a signature win during his six seasons. The Terrapins are 1-12 against Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, with the lone victory coming against Penn State in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Locksley has talked about taking Maryland to the next level, but losing at home to a rebuilding Michigan State team was a step in the opposite direction. If Maryland regresses this year, Locksley will be under pressure to show that the program hasn’t topped out. But things could be a lot worse at Maryland, and you don’t have to look back very far to see the proof. — Meek
Fill in the blank: “Illinois has a top ___ passing game in the entire league.” — William M.
Top eight. Not bad in an 18-team league stacked with several quarterbacks who make good cases to rank among the top 20 players at their position nationally. Luke Altmyer has improved his competition rate (69.2 percent) and yards per attempt (8.3) in 2024. Most importantly, his six touchdowns without an interception represents major progress over a year ago.
Seniors Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin rank in the top 12 in the Big Ten in receiving yardage per game. They’re a dangerous combination. — Sherman
Is the Nebraska sellout streak a real thing? — Tim B.
Yes. Every seat was sold for all 400 games from Nov. 3, 1962, through Friday night as Illinois visits Memorial Stadium. Did Nebraska get creative in finding ways to sell the tickets to a few games in recent years? Yes. Did it still sell the seats? Yes. Donors have stepped in to help preserve the streak. But if the situation had ever grown untenable, with many thousands of seats available, the streak would have ended. — Sherman
List and rank the top three running backs in the conference, please. — Ben M.
The top two Big Ten running backs when it comes to production have to be Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson and Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai. Johnson is tied for fourth nationally with six touchdown runs and is a huge reason why Iowa’s offense has finally taken steps forward. He went for 119 rushing yards against Illinois State, 187 against Iowa State and 173 against Troy while scoring two touchdowns in each game. As noted in a story this week, the last Iowa runner with three consecutive games of at least 100 yards and two touchdowns was Tavian Banks in 1997. Johnson has gone from averaging 4.0 yards per carry last season to 7.9.
When we talked to players from around the Big Ten at media days and asked them for the best offensive player in the conference not on their team, Monangai was among the first players mentioned. He’s been as advertised and ranks second nationally in rushing yards per game (186.5). Monangai is coming off a 208-yard, three-touchdown game against Akron and has the chance to get Rutgers to 3-0 with a victory this weekend at Virginia Tech.
There are a number of outstanding Big Ten running backs. Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton and Washington’s Jonah Coleman both average more than 100 yards rushing per game. But I’m going to make sure Ohio State’s Quinshon Judkins is included. What can he accomplish when he’s needed for a full game? So far, Ohio State has beaten Akron 52-6 and Western Michigan 56-0. Judkins carried just nine times against Western Michigan but went for 108 yards and two touchdowns. His numbers will be limited by splitting reps with TreVeyon Henderson, but he’s still a guy who ran for 2,723 yards and 31 touchdowns the past two seasons at Ole Miss. — Temple
After seeing Indiana crush UCLA, where are both programs? Is Indiana a sneaky good team and UCLA a very bad team? Or is it something else? — Michael J.
For the first time since Bill Mallory in the 1980s, fortune has smiled on the Indiana football program (let’s not count the COVID-altered 2020 campaign). In Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers landed a winning coach with urgency and the right ego. Unlike other coaches who would ignore Indiana, Cignetti sees opportunity. He had a plan when entering the transfer portal and brought 12 players from James Madison while targeting veterans who could help him win now. Indiana has seven offensive and six defensive starters from the portal, including seven from JMU. In addition, grabbing longtime Ohio starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke was a major coup.
UCLA is in a much different spot. The Bruins lost head coach Chip Kelly, who left to become Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, and hired UCLA legacy DeShaun Foster as a first-time head coach. Many of their best players and potential future stars bolted in the portal — some even for Big Ten rivals — and they weren’t able to replace them holistically. There’s a talent gap from last year, and Indiana was much better prepared.
With the teams’ schedules and the way they are coached, Indiana has a chance to compete for an upper-half finish, something few could have imagined after its wholesale changes. Conversely, UCLA is in a tough spot this year and might not be favored to win any game the rest of the season. — Dochterman
(Photo of USC running back Quinten Joyner (0) and offensive lineman Mason Murphy: Jonathan Hui / Imagn Images)
