MADISON, Wis. — Wisconsin’s start to the season, which includes a 42-10 blowout loss at home to Alabama last Saturday, understandably generated plenty of questions from readers. Here are the answers in this week’s installment of the Badgers mailbag.
Topics include whether Wisconsin’s trajectory compares to Nebraska, whether coaches should play more young players, what the team identity is and more. Let’s get to it.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
What are the reasons to think Wisconsin isn’t on the same downward trajectory Nebraska was on 20 years ago, and what are the reasons to think that it is? — First T.
Nebraska’s history provides an interesting case study when it comes to measuring Wisconsin as a program now. Nebraska fired Frank Solich, who went 58-19 overall and 9-3 in his final season in 2003, and replaced him with Bill Callahan, who went 27-22. Solich took over at a time when Nebraska had won three of the previous four national championships under Tom Osborne, so expectations were much higher for the Cornhuskers.
After Callahan came Bo Pelini, whose teams won nine or 10 games in all six of his seasons but never hit the same ceiling as Solich’s teams did before Pelini was fired. Mike Riley and Scott Frost posted one winning season combined over the next eight years. Now Matt Rhule, in his second season, finally has the Cornhuskers on an uptick behind a five-star quarterback with family ties to the program.
By the end of the Paul Chryst era, it was clear the Badgers were trending in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts, so perhaps it wasn’t realistic to believe Luke Fickell could author an instant turnaround. He’s trying to put his own stamp on a program while figuring out how to retain some of what worked before. That is tricky.
We’re now five years removed from Wisconsin’s last Rose Bowl season. This program is 27-20 since the middle of the 2020 season, which includes a 16-15 conference record. The longer things go on like this, and Wisconsin seems rudderless, the more it creates questions about when — or if — something will be different soon because the Big Ten is as difficult as it’s ever been.
The biggest reason to think Wisconsin is on a similar downward trajectory to Nebraska is that the Badgers have gotten further away from what made them good for decades. Fickell even said after the Alabama loss when I asked him what the team did well, “We know we’ve got a hell of a long way to go to figure out what we are and what we can hang our hat on.” Without a clear identity, it’s hard to find an advantage consistently in games. Watching Ron Dayne being honored during the Alabama game 25 years after his Heisman Trophy season created plenty of nostalgia for what once was.
What could stem the tide? Wisconsin has recruited well under Fickell, and those young players need to be difference-makers. Hitting on the right transfer portal players can quickly elevate a program. Finding a high-end quarterback certainly would go a long way. Just look at Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola. Determining exactly what kind of offense Wisconsin wants to have and executing that plan well would help, too.
Clearly the roster is not as talented as it needs to be, but the staff has not been playing the young players a lot, even though they are clearly where the talent is on the team. Is there any fear that the young guys will leave early if they don’t get playing time? How have the coaches responded to questions regarding which players are playing? — Brian H.
If I’m looking at just the 2024 recruiting class, I think we’ve seen the staff show at least some willingness to put a young guy on the field. Cornerback Xavier Lucas intercepted a pass in the opener and started the second half against South Dakota, playing 26 snaps in that game before he sustained an injury that sidelined him against Alabama. Outside linebacker Thomas Heiberger would have been part of the rotation had he not suffered an injury this preseason. Dillan Johnson has worked his way into the defensive line rotation and has played 23 snaps. Offensive lineman Kevin Heywood has taken a handful of snaps late as a reserve.
This discussion comes up most when mentioning running backs Darrion Dupree and Dilin Jones. It feels to me like the staff is in a tough spot because Chez Mellusi, Tawee Walker and even Cade Yacamelli have performed well in practices to earn their snaps, and there aren’t enough opportunities to go around. At the same time, the ceiling and long-term potential for Dupree and Jones is undeniably high.
I think that’s why we’ve seen both players on the field late in games. Coaches want to reward them and show them that there is a path forward at Wisconsin. Mellusi and Walker are in their final seasons of eligibility, which means Dupree and Jones are in a great spot to take over those roles.
Coaches always have a delicate balance to strike between attempting to win and not losing players they spent so long recruiting. I’d like to see what Dupree can do with more opportunities because he is so dynamic in space. Other younger players who aren’t true freshmen that I’d like to see more of include wide receiver Trech Kekahuna and linebackers Tackett Curtis and Christian Alliegro.
Is there a possibility that the true freshman QB gets a chance if the season slips away? Braedyn Locke’s propensity to use sidearm delivery and having passes batted down along with marginal mobility and poor accuracy (based on the data) does not seem to correlate to an effective starter. — Brandon V.
I think the staff wants to do everything in its power to not throw freshman quarterback Mabrey Mettauer into a difficult situation if it can be helped. There’s a reason why Wisconsin hasn’t started a true freshman at quarterback since Jay Macias in 1991. It’s a really hard job made more challenging by inexperience.
It’s possible Mettauer has made considerable strides since preseason practices closed to the media a month ago, though I’m guessing third-team snaps in practices were limited. But there was a clear delineation between Tyler Van Dyke and Braedyn Locke and then Mettauer. Mettauer showed some flashes and executed a handful of read-option runs with good success in practices. He also displayed youthful mistakes, as he did on a quick throw during a scrimmage that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.
Mettauer made those mistakes against third-team defenders. You could make the case that he’d have a first-team offense surrounding him if Wisconsin put him into a game. Unfortunately, he’d be matching up against defensive starters on some of the best teams in the country. And the speed with which the game is played is just so much different to anything Mettauer has seen in high school or in practices. Maybe the coaching staff tries to give Mettauer some spot snaps with the game decided late in the season so he can gain experience with lower stakes. But I don’t see them straight-up picking him ahead of Locke, even if the team struggles this season.
“He’s going to have to be ready,” Fickell said. “Unfortunately, we could have to have a true freshman that’s got to be ready to roll. Even the first series or second series (against Alabama), Braedyn was in there, I see him kind of working his hand after he takes a shot and fumbles the football. And he’s one play away. And he’s a lot closer today than he was in the past. He’s going to have to grow up fast.”
What do you believe Luke Fickell and his staff want as the “identity” of this team for all three phases? I’m not trying to be critical, but I just don’t see any signs of an identity. With Paul Chryst, you knew he wanted a boring, smashmouth, time-of-possession offense with low turnovers. From Dave Aranda, Justin Wilcox, and Jim Leonhard, you knew the defense would be in a 3-4 or 2-4-5 package bringing pressures. I see what Phil Longo and Mike Tressel are “trying to do” but don’t understand the identity. — Shawn G.
I think Fickell wants a lot of the things that made Wisconsin successful in the past and the approach he took as a player. Tough. Physical. Disciplined. It’s really difficult to quantify what percentage the lack of success on offense and defense can be attributed to personnel or coaching, though it’s likely a mix of both.
The thing defensively is that Fickell and defensive coordinator Mike Tressel have had success together at Cincinnati. The Bearcats ranked No. 2 nationally in pass defense during the 2021 season when they went to the College Football Playoff. It also helped that the team had six defensive players taken in the next NFL Draft — two defensive linemen, two linebackers and two defensive backs. Player development, if that’s possible in the transfer portal era, should be a key at Wisconsin because that’s how the Badgers were successful previously.
What’s interesting is how much Tressel has changed his approach from a personnel standpoint while at Wisconsin. During Tressel’s last season at Cincinnati in 2022, the Bearcats played 627 snaps using 3-3-5 personnel (66.3 percent), its most-used grouping, per TruMedia. Wisconsin lined up in a 3-3-5 for 11 plays last season and zero so far this season.
Instead, the most-used grouping has been the 2-4-5, which he used 52.8 percent of the time last season and 61 percent of the time this season. Wisconsin’s most-used personnel grouping in Jim Leonhard’s final season was the 2-4-5, on 63.2 percent of its snaps. The Badgers played a 3-4 on 22.6 percent of their plays last season under Tressel and have done so 23.2 percent of the time this season.
Wisconsin’s defense has holes, but it at least feels closer than where the offense is right now. Fickell says he wants to create space and take shots down the field offensively. But he also wants to play with physicality and bigger personnel packages. Melding both has proven to be a challenge.
This doesn’t really look like the offenses Phil Longo ran before he came to Wisconsin, and that could be either because Fickell is trying to establish more of a physical identity and/or the Badgers don’t have the players to overpower opponents and stretch the field. But is Wisconsin even giving its playmakers the chances they need?
Receiver Bryson Green, presumably the best deep ball threat, caught one pass for 12 yards and was targeted just three times against Alabama. Having quarterbacks like Drake Maye and Sam Howell — two NFL Draft picks — while at North Carolina certainly helps make a coordinator’s job easier. But Wisconsin still needs to figure out what it wants to be on offense.
Let’s say the season finishes as generally expected given the statistical output (four or five wins with a miracle case to be made for six). What are the realistic levers Fickell can pull from a coaching staff/roster/scheme perspective to stop the skid the program is on? — Tony S.
Obviously, we’re not there yet. But Fickell didn’t sign up for a 4-8 or a 5-7 season at Wisconsin, especially in Year 2. If that’s the case, I’d expect there to be some changes made. None would guarantee success, but he has to be willing to try something different if his initial approach isn’t working.
I don’t know that the roster can be remade enough to immediately change the team’s fortunes, but we have seen the staff bring in around 15 scholarship transfers over the past two offseasons. The problem is you don’t necessarily know how those guys will pan out, even with previous college experience. Wisconsin may not land some of the best players in the portal given the competition. Bringing someone in from a lower level feels like a crapshoot. Cornerback Nyzier Fourqurean was a Division II All-American and has been an impact player. Outside linebacker John Pius was an FCS All-American and has two tackles while playing 67 snaps. Temple defensive lineman Darian Varner was a first-team all-AAC player who barely contributed last season before transferring out.
Wisconsin needs to be able to rely on the type of player development Fickell and his staff had at Cincinnati, which is harder than ever with NIL and the transfer portal. He has been able to recruit at a fairly high level, and the Badgers must hope those guys pan out. Coaching staff and scheme changes could help to lift the team out of its funk as well.
If this offense struggles the rest of the season, Fickell will have to give some serious thought to whether Longo’s system is the path forward or if a gear change is necessary. Not having Van Dyke should be factored into the equation, but the offense wasn’t consistently effective in the first two games with him. Wisconsin has changed its roster and its style in two seasons under Fickell. He doesn’t strike me as the type of coach who will tolerate inferior results.
(Top photo: Jeff Hanisch / Imagn Images)
