HOUSTON — Beginning on Monday, the Houston Astros will have three attempts to secure one win and seal their fourth consecutive American League West title, a position that not even Sunday’s putrid 9-8 loss against the Los Angeles Angels could overshadow.
Houston’s three best starters are in line to pitch during this three-game series against the Seattle Mariners. No love is lost between these clubs, so clinching at the Mariners’ expense — especially after they built a 10-game lead in early June — would make this climb from a 12-24 start far sweeter for the Astros.
Before the series begins, here are three takeaways:
Yusei, you stay?
Before Yusei Kikuchi left Toronto last month, George Springer made him a promise. Springer spent his first six seasons playing in the city and for the club that just acquired Kikuchi. “You’re going to love it,” Springer told his now-former Blue Jays teammate.
“And he was right,” Kikuchi said this week through an interpreter. “I can see what he meant by that.”
Kikuchi’s fit in Houston is obvious. Whether it could be more permanent is a pertinent question, one Kikuchi will entertain this offseason during his free agency.
“I can’t control anything that’s going to happen. I have to have an offer from the team in order for me to accept,” Kikuchi said. “Obviously if I get the offer, I’ll be happy. But something I can say is I love all my teammates, coaches and staff. I feel comfortable here.”
Starting pitching should not be the Astros’ foremost priority this offseason — upgrading the lineup with a first baseman or corner outfielder will take precedence — but it is a position general manager Dana Brown will need to address.
Yusei Kikuchi has been on a role since being traded to the Astros 😤 pic.twitter.com/uViCAoqOyx
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) September 22, 2024
Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown will return to headline Houston’s rotation, but Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti will be coming off career-high workloads. The effectiveness of Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. during their first full seasons after elbow surgery is a mystery, too.
Signing a veteran to stabilize the rotation seems beneficial. That Valdez and José Urquidy will be free agents after next season may make a multiyear free-agent deal more amenable.
Kikuchi, who turned 34 in June, has two primary objectives in choosing his next home.
“As I’m getting older, I’m thinking to myself, ‘I haven’t won a championship yet.’ I definitely want to be on a winning squad where we can go for a World Series championship,” said Kikuchi, who is represented by Scott Boras.
“Secondly, I think family is important, thinking about my son, where he would go to school and where my family could live comfortably, that’s going to be a big factor, too.”
Perhaps another advantage for the Astros? Kikuchi said he “prefers being in warmer weather” and part of his growing affinity for Houston is “it’s warm 365 days pretty much.” More seasoned Houstonians will read that as an understatement, but it may benefit the Astros if they’re in serious pursuit of Kikuchi.
Kikuchi has a 3.00 ERA and is allowing a .561 OPS across his 54 innings since the trade deadline, a stretch in which he’s lowered his ERA to 4.19. Few other pending free agents have increased their value more during the season’s final two months, meaning Houston won’t be the only team courting Kikuchi.
“Being on the other side and having to face this Houston offense, I didn’t like it,” Kikuchi said. “I felt like I was always getting hit around by this offense. Just being on this side of things helps me feel more comfortable.”
Replacing Scott and Gamel
Suggesting seven months ago that either Tayler Scott or Ben Gamel would even garner consideration for an Astros’ postseason roster seemed silly, but such is the story of this season, one stabilized by a slew of unheralded players outperforming their pasts.
No better examples exist than Scott and Gamel, journeymen who had positioned themselves for meaningful roles for a championship contender in October. Injuries will prevent it, again testing the Astros’ dwindling depth in the outfield and bullpen.
Gamel’s fractured left fibula will “most likely” cause him to miss the entire postseason, Dana Brown said Sunday. Claimed off waivers in mid-August, Gamel slashed .259/.377/.362 during a 20-game stint with Houston while affording stability to an outfield that hasn’t had much of it.
Gamel’s absence almost guarantees Jason Heyward will make the Astros’ postseason roster as a left-handed hitting bench bat. The team is hopeful Chas McCormick can return from a hand fracture for its final regular-season series against the Cleveland Guardians. If McCormick is able to do so, adding him to the outfield mix in Gamel’s stead makes logical sense.
Scott is on the injured list with what the Astros described as a “thoracic spine strain” — a back injury he acknowledged trying to pitch through all month. Scott surrendered nine hits, five walks and four earned runs in 5 2/3 September innings, inflating an already unsustainable workload.
Before this year, Scott had never thrown more than 17 2/3 major-league innings in a season. He logged 68 2/3 frames in this one, volume he said may have contributed to his back injury.
That more than half of those innings came in leverage situations, which carry higher stress on the body, didn’t help, either. Scott still finished with a 2.23 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and, according to Baseball-Reference’s WAR metric, remains the Astros’ most valuable reliever.
The Astros backdated Scott’s injured list placement to Sept. 18, meaning his requisite 15 days will end on Oct. 1, the second day of a potential Wild Card Series. If Houston does play in one, Scott won’t be a factor. A more realistic path exists to make an American League Division Series roster, but Brown didn’t sound bullish on those chances Sunday.
“He’s saved us tons of games and just had an unbelievable year for a guy that we were able to get for pretty much nothing,” Brown told the team’s pregame radio show Sunday. “He gave us all he had. He emptied his tank.”
Scott’s recent slide had made him less trustworthy in high-leverage roles. As a result, manager Joe Espada turned more to Héctor Neris, who stands to gain more meaningful innings in Scott’s absence.
Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader will continue handling all of Houston’s highest-leverage spots. Matchups will dictate how the club ultimately constructs a postseason bullpen around them, but Scott’s absence could open the door for either rookie left-hander Bryan King or right-hander Seth Martinez to earn a spot among the relief corps.
Who’s in center?
Jake Meyers has a .700 OPS this season when he swings at the first pitch and a .390 batting average during the first 95 times he put it in play, so it should surprise no one that he ambushed Angels reliever Brock Burke in the eighth inning of Sunday’s game.
Burke elevated a first-pitch slider. Meyers bounced it to shortstop Zach Neto for an inning-ending, 6-4-3 double play, stranding two insurance runs Houston needed to score.
Meyers finished the game 0-for-4 and is now slashing .191/.256/.284 in 183 at-bats since the All-Star break. Only three major-league hitters entered Sunday with a lower second-half OPS than Meyers’ .540 clip.
Meyers has still started 51 of Houston’s 59 games in that stretch, a testament only to his terrific defense. Only five center fielders entered Sunday worth more outs above average, according to Statcast.
Earlier this month, amid Meyers’ offensive struggles, Espada maintained that “Jake is our center fielder,” but it’s worth wondering if the first-year manager may explore other options in October. Not having Gamel eliminates one offensive upgrade to Meyers.
Whether McCormick even is an upgrade, or whether he’ll be healthy enough to contribute, are questions Houston must ask itself across the season’s final six games. If McCormick can play, Espada could consider deploying him in center field with either Heyward or Mauricio Dubón in left.
Dubón deploys the same aggressive approach as Meyers but has better bat-to-ball skills that become much more magnified against playoff pitching. Though Heyward has just nine hits in 41 at-bats as an Astro, he has a track record that Meyers can’t match.
That Meyers has remained an everyday player this long suggests he’ll be afforded the same runway in October, but perhaps Espada considers this: The top two pitchers in his playoff rotation — Valdez and Hunter Brown — rank first and seventh, respectively, in major-league ground-ball rate.
Playing two of McCormick, Heyward or Dubón in the outfield behind them could raise the lineup’s floor. Only six bullpens in the sport allow fly balls at a higher rate than Houston’s, so when Espada does turn to them, Meyers makes logical sense as a mid-game replacement to reinforce the defense.
(Photo of Yusei Kikuchi: Logan Riely / Getty Images)
