LINCOLN, Neb. — The thing about overtime in college football is that stuff doesn’t even out over time. It’s not like a coin toss.
In fact, let’s look at the coin flips from Nebraska’s eight overtime contests since it beat Iowa in OT 10 years ago.
Nebraska won four of those eight flips — including the coin toss at the start of overtime Friday night before Illinois dominated the extra period to beat the Huskers 31-24 in the Big Ten opener for both programs.
In trying to explain Nebraska’s recent misery in close games, some fans and pundits have reasoned that good fortune evens out over time.
The Huskers appeared especially unlucky at times in losing 22 of 27 games decided by eight points or fewer under former coach Scott Frost. Frost said the Huskers felt “snakebit” after a painful loss at Illinois to open the 2021 season.
All of the stressors and key factors present in the second half of a close game increase in importance during overtime. OT is like a super-charged fourth quarter. Mistakes are magnified. One error often determines the outcome.
The reality that Nebraska has played so poorly in overtime speaks to the larger problems that plague the Huskers in close games. Second-year coach Matt Rhule, 8-8 at Nebraska, is now 1-6 in one-score decisions. He’s 0-2 in OT.
For all that Rhule has fixed in Lincoln, the Huskers’ struggles to succeed in the high-stakes spots of a close game still exist.
Since 2015, Nebraska is 0-8 in OT. It hasn’t achieved a first down. Four offensive drives ended in interceptions. Every time Nebraska won the coin toss, its opponent scored a touchdown. In the four OT periods that the Huskers got the ball first, they lost every time on field goals.
The OT performance on Friday was the worst yet. Illinois scored in two plays. Nebraska began its possession with a false-start penalty and allowed three sacks in four plays. It lost 40 yards.
“The moment showed up and we didn’t make the plays you have to make to win those games,” Rhule said.
This is not going to even out. It’s not about misfortune. The only way to conquer the OT demons is to win the battle once, build confidence, then win it again and create habits.
Rhule has laid out the plan. He demands the Huskers win the turnover battle, play with physicality and develop a culture of execution. That’s the great challenge for Nebraska in the long term. In the short term, here are three items for it to address with Purdue on deck Saturday:
1. It can’t be all about Dylan Raiola
He’s fantastic. A look at Raiola’s stats through four games — 72.2 percent completion rate, 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio — compare evenly with Heisman Trophy frontrunner Quinn Ewers of Texas (73.4 percent, 8.7 yards per attempt, 8-to-2 ratio), though Ewers has played one less game.
The game appeared to move fast late for Raiola against Illinois. It needs to be said that the freshman QB clearly rates as the best offensive weapon for Nebraska. But during a second half in which the Huskers never trailed, even against a stacked box, they must run the ball better.
Nebraska outgained Illinois on the ground 79 yards to 37 in the first half and went to the locker room with a 17-10 lead, but it hardly tried to establish the run in the late stages. The Huskers in the second half carried 11 times for 7 yards, compared to 25 rushes for 108 yards in the third and fourth quarters for the Illini.
Illinois essentially executed Nebraska’s second-half game plan as the Huskers leaned heavily on Raiola. The result: Seven points after halftime for the Huskers, a near disaster as Raiola fumbled twice during a fourth-quarter possession deep in Nebraska territory, a missed third-and-3 throw to the end zone with three minutes left and the full offensive collapse in OT.
No doubt, Raiola can handle a big load. But the Huskers have a deep stable of weapons on offense to help remove pressure from him.
Purdue presents an opportunity for Nebraska to diversify its attack. The Boilermakers have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and 5.6 yards per rushing attempt, 65th and 66th, respectively, among 67 Power 4 teams.
2. Find a better way to address the kicking game
Nebraska is not ignoring special teams. It just looks that way. The Huskers rank 113th nationally and last in the Big Ten in net punting. They’ve not converted a field-goal attempt of longer than 31 yards and haven’t tried from beyond 39.
Their “Chasing 3” mantra looks ironic at the one-quarter mark of this season.
Kicker Tristan Alvano, on the mend this summer from groin surgery, was not healthy enough to play on Friday. If Alvano has to miss more time, Nebraska will find itself in worse shape at that spot than in any recent season other than 2019, Frost’s second year, when the situation at kicker almost didn’t seem real.
Against Illinois, Rhule said, “we didn’t make a play on special teams that tilted the game for us.”
Rhule wants more from the Huskers’ kicking game than to hold serve. He wants it to give Nebraska an advantage. Return specialists Jacory Barney and Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda rate as an improvement over a year ago.
Other areas are lagging behind.
What to do? Rhule has more flexibility than coaches in previous seasons because of the new rules that allow all staffers to work with players in practice. Ed Foley, like most special teams coordinators, is limited in his ability to help the kickers. Get him more assistance. Bring in a former pro to work with the kickers daily. It’s not something that can wait until after the season to address.
3. Dial up the chaos on defense
The beauty of Tony White’s 3-3-5 system is that it creates confusion and a sense for players on offense that the defense is playing with more than 11 players. White’s defenders last year flew at ball carriers from unexpected angles.
Its unpredictably rates as a major strength of the scheme.
I’m not seeing that as much this season. It’s an oversimplification to suggest that White’s defense has turned more predictable, more NFL-like, and that’s holding it back. But with a stated goal established early in the offseason to generate a pass rush consistently with a four-man rush and the July addition of secondary coach John Butler from the Buffalo Bills, Nebraska looks a little more traditional on D in 2024.
Its season-long blitz rate puts it 16th in the Big Ten, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Huskers blitzed more against Illinois (37.1 percent) than in any of their first three games. But the “havoc rate” in Week 4 hit a season-low 9.1 percent. Credit Illinois QB Luke Altmyer for managing pressure well.
Nebraska allows 4.61 yards per play this year, 31st nationally and seventh in the Big Ten. It has gained seven turnovers, 23rd and fourth. Its 24 tackles for loss rank 46th and third.
All good. But the Illini gained 5.8 yards per play, the fourth-highest figure in 16 games of the White-Rhule defensive era. Nebraska didn’t produce a three-and-out stop against Illinois, disrupting the game flow that the Huskers prefer to keep their offense in rhythm.
The Huskers hate to lose, defensive end Ty Robinson said, but they learn more from a loss than from a poorly played game that finishes in victory.
“You might not see the mistakes as well,” Robinson said.
Nebraska allowed just 20 points in three games to open the season. Did the bottom-line results hide a few questions worth asking? The questions are out there now. His history indicates that White will have answers.
(Top photo: Dylan Widger / Imagn Images)
