The Edmonton Oilers made it all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final before running out of gas.
One of the key storylines entering this season is getting off to a strong start and getting some rest for the heart of the team before the postseason.
This version of the Oilers should be able to exceed the point total from last year’s first 10 games (five points, 2-7-1 record).
Looking back on those first 10 games from a year ago with fresh eyes might offer some insight into areas of improvement.
What did the Oilers do wrong? Let’s have a look.
The first 10 at five-on-five
At five-on-five, the Oilers weren’t close to good enough through 10 games:
| Category | First 10 | 11-82 |
|---|---|---|
|
Record
|
2W 7L 1T
|
47W 20L 5T
|
|
Five-on-Five SP
|
0.889
|
0.918
|
|
Five-on-Five GF-60
|
2.18
|
2.99
|
|
Five-on-Five GA-60
|
3.21
|
2.18
|
|
Five-on-Five Pct
|
40.5
|
57.9
|
|
Five-on-Five X-Goals-for-per-60
|
3.39
|
3.17
|
|
Five-on-Five X-GA-per-60
|
2.52
|
2.39
|
|
X-Goals Pct Five-on-Five
|
57.4
|
57.1
|
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The overall expected goals for the first 10 games align perfectly with the rest of the season, but the actual results were ghastly.
What happened?
The easy answer to the increased goals against is the save percentage. Stuart Skinner posted a .902 save percentage in those games, but starter Jack Campbell (.879) allowed 15 goals on 124 shots at five-on-five.
Injuries were also a factor on offence and defence.
Connor McDavid played in eight games, averaging 1.91 points per 60. Through the rest of the season at five-on-five, he would post 3.5 points per 60 to lead the NHL in this category. While he was on the ice at five-on-five during the first 10 games, the Oilers allowed 3.83 GA-60. Over the next 72 games, the Oilers gave up 2.65 GA-60 when the captain patrolled the ice.
He wasn’t alone. Darnell Nurse sat 4.17 GA-60 through the first 10 and 2.32 GA-60 the rest of the way. Zach Hyman? He was at 6.00 GA-60 through early November (10 games), then 1.98 GA-60 for the remainder of the year (all numbers five-on-five).
Ironically, the man often mentioned as impacting the slow start (Mattias Ekholm, who was injured before training camp) performed well in those first 10 games. Ekholm’s five-on-five GA-60 (2.98 while playing nine of the first 10) wasn’t a primary culprit. The valuable defender did post a stunning 2.06 GA-60 over the rest of the season.
Math views the slow start and strong heart of the season as regression.
Regression is a galling answer because luck and randomness are difficult to fit into a narrative. We crave answers to questions about bothersome situations, but math doesn’t care about emotions and the answers to Edmonton’s early woes were goaltending and miserable luck.
Campbell (and coach Jay Woodcroft) would pay the price.
What can the Oilers do at five-on-five to avoid another slow start?
Edmonton began last season with two major issues (starting goaltender and second-pair right defence) and both impacted the first 10 games.
Campbell’s five-on-five save percentage is mentioned above, and the second pairing had an even bigger impact.
Using the three left defenders as a proxy for pairings, the top pair (Ekholm) delivered 50 percent (7-7), the second pairing (Nurse) was in the ditch at 6-12 (33 percent) and Brett Kulak’s third pair ran 4-7 (36 percent).
Coach Kris Knoblauch needs to find defensive partners that work for Nurse and Kulak.
The Nurse partner is key. He should be efficient at puck retrieval and strong zone-exit passes. It could be Ty Emberson or Troy Stecher, but it’s unlikely to be Josh Brown.
Don’t count out a quick trade if the second pairing performs poorly in the early portion of the season.
The first 10 on special teams
In the first 10 games, the Oilers scored 10.28 goals per 60 (No. 7 in the NHL) and allowed two short-handed goals. The net difference (9GF-2GA) was seven, the 82 percent goal share ranking No. 19 among all 32 teams.
That’s a poor success rate. The team scored well, but the short-handed goals were intolerable.
In the final 72 games, Edmonton finished second in the NHL with a 10.57 GF-60 total and a goal differential (55-3) of 95 percent.
A critic could argue the short-handed goals early were a sign of a team that wasn’t prepared for regular-season intensity.
In the first 10 games, Edmonton allowed 10.66 GA-60 and had a deficit of 11 goals on the PK (0-11).
That means the differential in special teams through 10 games (9-13) was 41 percent. Nothing close to championship level.
In the final 72 games, the Oilers were outscored 42-7 short-handed, with the GA-60 (7.01) vastly improved.
Over the entire season, Edmonton scored 71 and allowed 58 special teams goals. A better start in this area could help the team secure a winning record after 10 games.
Fans will remember the exceptional impact of special teams during the playoffs one year ago.
The Oilers were 3-4 goals on the penalty kill, a borderline impossible success rate, and 22-0 on the power play. Both numbers are beyond reasonable expectation, but a better start is within the grasp of such a talented club.
Fast start
The Oilers played two games against the Vancouver Canucks to start the 2023-24 season, losing both by a combined score of 12-4.
Everyone in the organization seemed prepared, but in the immortal words of former boxer Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
The Canucks were a sock in the jaw and wobbled a championship quality team in Edmonton. Those two games seemed to linger for a time, and the Oilers dug themselves a hole.
This season, the opening games are versus the Winnipeg Jets, Chicago Blackhawks, Calgary Flames and Philadelphia Flyers. That looks like an easier schedule.
The veteran Oilers (both McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have acknowledged the slow start as a must to avoid) need to set the tone early for the season to come.
It’s a stretch to say the slow start was a major factor in the disappointing end to the season. It can’t hurt to focus on early success with an eye to resting veterans at the end of the regular season (if the standings allow).
When teams start slowly, many blame a casual approach to getting the roster down to a workable number and spending the final preseason games with something close to a set roster.
Edmonton’s final preseason game (versus the Seattle Kraken) featured fringe players Adam Erne, Ben Gleason, Lane Pederson and Raphael Lavoie. That doesn’t look like a roster full of also-rans, but if the organization is looking to tighten up then running a group of veterans across the roster in the final days might help the early season results.
The bottom line is this: Math suggests the Oilers were better than the 2-7-1 start and were unlucky. Chances are the team could play at the same level and come out around 5-5-0.
However, if winning the division is the goal, and securing home-ice advantage for the playoffs a key, then focusing on an impact 10-game start is important.
Better health, better goaltending, better special teams and regression should mean early success for the Oilers.
A smash-mouth attitude toward Game 1 of the regular season wouldn’t go amiss, either.
(Photo of Connor McDavid and Mattias Ekholm: Codie McLachlan / Getty Images)
