ST. LOUIS — It’s time for one of our favorite stories of the St. Louis Blues’ season: 10 bold predictions.
It’s a staple every September, and it’s fun because it means hockey is almost here. It’s also fun because I can write stuff no one can say is wrong — at least not today.
Before we get started, I want to point out I kept my predictions pretty straightforward and as realistic as possible (while still being bold). I think that leads to some good discussion in the comment section about whether they’re on point or way off base.
In the near future, The Athletic will let subscribers send in their own predictions, and you can get as wacky as you want. Stay tuned for that.
Until then, here are my 10 bold predictions for the Blues’ 2024-25 season.
Kyrou nets 40 goals and Thomas hits 100 points
I purposely put these two predictions together because one is linked to the other. The Blues have Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas playing on the same line in training camp, and the expectation is they’ll open the regular season that way.
Kyrou scored 37 goals two seasons ago and finished with 31 last season after a snakebitten start, so he’s certainly capable of netting 40. And if Thomas can continue his ascent into the elite tier of NHL passers, that will help Kyrou get there.
Thomas had 26 goals and 60 assists last season for 86 points. That was a great season, but as he now enters the prime of his career at age 25, there are 14 points still on the table somewhere for him.
Buchnevich is back at wing by November
The Blues believe playing Pavel Buchnevich at center gives them their best chance to win. Buchnevich, as he told The Athletic recently, is willing to play in the middle. But that doesn’t mean it will work.
Buchnevich admitted he thinks a lot when he plays center — about getting deep in his own zone, when to pounce on pucks and jump-start the rush, how he can set up his wingers. He likes to pass, yes, but he’s so much better at reading the game on the wing. And the Blues need him scoring, like in 2021-22, when he had 30 goals and 76 points in 73 games on the wing.
The continued experiment with Buchnevich at center could work. But if Brayden Schenn can bounce back with a more consistent year, he may be able to handle those duties until Dalibor Dvorský is ready, and that would allow the Blues to have Buchnevich, Kyrou, Jake Neighbours and Zack Bolduc as the wingers on their top two lines.
Bolduc finishes top 5 in goals
First of all, Bolduc has to make the roster and that’s not a guarantee. But for those who watched him at the Tom Kurvers Prospect Showcase and early in training camp, he looks like a player who’s confident and ready to make the jump.
I understand Bolduc is still only 21 years old and he’s played just 25 NHL games. I agree the little bit of success he had at the end of last season is too small of a sample size. But he’s got a lot of offensive skill and likes to shoot the puck, so if given the chance, I think there’s more potential for upside than the Blues have with their other options.
Last year, the Blues’ top five goal scorers were Kyrou (31), Buchnevich (27), Neighbours (27), Brandon Saad (26) and Thomas (26). It would be a big leap for Bolduc to get there, but we saw it with Neighbours.
Neighbours signs an 8-year extension
Neighbours, 22, is entering the final year of his entry-level contract. His salary-cap hit is $835,834, which will undoubtedly be going up next season. How much? That will depend, of course, on whether he can pick up where he left off.
Neighbours was rewarded for his willingness to play in front of the net. He scored 20 of his 27 goals from the high-danger zone, per NHL Edge player tracking, which led to a shooting percentage of 18.6 percent. If opponents make it more difficult for him to produce in the hard areas, there may be regression in his shooting percentage and he may not have the same level of success. That’ll have an impact on his next contract.
However, the Blues realize they’ve got a talented player who’s committed to the club, and they’ll be giving him a big raise soon. With the cap climbing, it may make more sense for Neighbours to agree to a shorter deal — say, five years — but I’ll say he opts for the security of an eight-year extension if the team makes it worthwhile.
Dvorský plays fewer than 15 NHL games
Before anyone gets bothered by this prediction, please know I think Dvorský is going to be really good, maybe even great. It’s possible he’ll have a decade-plus career centering the Blues’ second line or maybe top line one day.
But I don’t think Dvorský will be making that kind of impression this season. He’s 19 years old, and yes, Thomas was just 19 when he won a Stanley Cup with the Blues, but there’s one big difference: Thomas could not have been assigned to the AHL in 2018-19 and Dvorský can this season.
Blues general manager Doug Armstrong is adamant about not failing Dvorský, and for a club with playoff aspirations, taking it slowly with the 2023 No. 10 pick seems to be the plan. He could get a look in the NHL, but my guess is it’ll be fewer than 15 games.
Broberg stays on the second D pair all season
If Philip Broberg is skating with Justin Faulk in the second defensive pairing during training camp, then why is it a bold prediction for him to stay put? Well, it’s because a lot of people believe Broberg will eventually be in the top pairing with Colton Parayko.
I think Broberg will be there too, but not quite yet. Parayko and Nick Leddy did a nice job together in 2023-24, and Broberg could be a good partner for Faulk, who’s coming off a subpar season. That was perhaps due to a high ankle sprain, but Leddy seems healthy now and Broberg’s ability to skate and play strong in his zone could benefit him.
If Leddy struggles or a Broberg-Parayko pairing seems too promising to deny, then the club has no choice. But I’ll say no for now.
Perunovich unseats Suter in the starting lineup
As Scott Perunovich said earlier this offseason, “You only have so many chances” to make it in the NHL, and he knows he’s running out of them. Even with Torey Krug out for the season following ankle surgery, Perunovich has a huge challenge in front of him.
The Blues brought in Broberg, Ryan Suter and P.O. Joseph this summer, and Tyler Tucker is still here. It would seem Suter is the one standing in Perunovich’s way, and with 1,444 NHL regular-season games under Suter’s belt, Perunovich would have to play amazing hockey to offset that experience.
But with the crossroads Perunovich is facing, I think he finds the gumption to be the player he envisions himself being. It would be great for the Blues to have a puck-mover who can quarterback the power play and, at 26 years old, hopes to be around in the future — which isn’t the plan for Suter, 39.
Hofer makes 5 more starts than as a rookie
Joel Hofer made 27 starts as a rookie last season backing up starter Jordan Binnington. The lighter workload for Binnington might’ve been beneficial, as he produced a .913 save percentage in 55 starts compared to an .894 save percentage in 60 starts the previous season. Now some Blues fans are hoping that Hofer, 24, can take on even more assignments in 2024-25.
I have two initial thoughts on this and then a conclusion. First, Binnington didn’t do anything to have starts taken away from him. But second, it’s a new year, and each of the goalies will have to earn his playing time.
My conclusion: Binnington is a proud player and will want as much of the pie as he can get, but it’s never a bad thing when both goalies are playing well and pushing each other. With several long road trips this season, Binnington and Hofer will both need to stay fresh and assuming both stay healthy all season, I’ll predict a split of 50 and 32 starts for the two, respectively.
Blues will sweep the Sharks season series
The Blues finished six points out a playoff spot in the Western Conference last season. They went 0-2-1 and were outscored 12-3 in three head-to-head matchups with the San Jose Sharks, who ended with the lowest point total in the league (47 points).
So with three wins over the lowly Sharks, the Blues’ season might have had a different ending.
It would be easy to pick on the club and say it’ll be more of the same against San Jose, but I’m going to flip the script and say the Blues will go 3-0 in 2024-25. We’ll find out soon how this one holds up, with the teams playing each other in the Blues’ second game of the season, Oct. 10, and playing all three games of the season series by Dec. 12.
Bannister leads the Blues back to the playoffs
After taking over for Craig Berube in mid-December last season, Drew Bannister is back for his first full season with the Blues. The team had a record of 30-19-5 in Bannister’s 49 games last season, which was a points percentage of .601.
Only 12 NHL clubs had a points percentage above .600 last season, so if they could maintain the same clip under Bannister, they would give themselves a chance. But by some accounts, they have a better roster, so there’s even more promise.
But nothing is guaranteed, especially considering it doesn’t look like there will be any let-up among the top teams in the Central and Pacific Divisions — and potentially more contenders. The Blues will definitely have to earn it, but I’ll go out on a limb and say they’ll be back in the postseason after missing out the past two years.
(Top photo of Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas: Bob Frid / USA Today)
