By RUSTIN DODD, CODY STAVENHAGEN and DAN HAYES
Six days to go. Five teams. Three AL wild-card spots on the line.
The Orioles appear safe. The Royals are collapsing. The Tigers are surging. The Twins are fading. The Mariners are … still alive?
As we gear up for the final week, let’s break down the state of the race.
How the standings look today
| W | L | GB | |
| Orioles | 86 | 70 | +4 |
| Royals | 82 | 74 | — |
| Tigers | 82 | 74 | — |
| Twins | 81 | 75 | 1 |
| Mariners | 81 | 76 | 1.5 |
Upcoming schedule
Orioles: at Yankees (3); at Twins (3)
Royals: at Nationals (3); at Braves (3)
Tigers: Rays (3); White Sox (3)
Twins: Marlins (3); Orioles (3)
Mariners: at Astros (2); A’s (3)
Tiebreaker scenarios
- Head to head*
- Intradivision record against teams in their division
- Interdivision record against teams within their league but outside their division
- Last Half of Intraleague Games: Record against teams within their league after the midway point of the season
- Last Half of Intraleague Games Plus One: Record in the last game of the first half of intraleague games
*Three-way ties: Cumulative record against the other teams. If two teams have the same cumulative record, then it reverts back to head-to-head between those two teams
How they got here
Orioles: One of the best teams in baseball through June, Baltimore is just 33-39 since the start of July — and 8-11 in September — a stretch that allowed the Yankees to take control in the AL East. They returned Jordan Westburg and Ramón Urías from the injured list on Sunday, the same day they lost a series to the Tigers. Their last series win came against the Chicago White Sox Sept. 2-4.
Royals: On September 14, the Royals improved to 82-67 and had a 98.8 percent chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs. Since then, they’ve lost seven straight games and, as of Monday, their percentage chance to make the postseason had plummeted to 68.6 percent. In all, the Royals are 7-14 since first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino exited with a broken thumb on Aug. 29.
Tigers: The Tigers were nine games under .500 on July 4, and by Aug. 10, their playoff odds were only 0.2 percent. But the Tigers have the American League’s best record (43-27) since that July 4 date and have been extremely torrid since Aug. 13, going 26-11 in that time. After a 5-1 road trip against the Royals and Orioles, the Tigers now have a one-game advantage over the Minnesota Twins in the wild-card race.
Twins: Since improving to a season-high 17 games over .500 on Aug. 17, they’ve disintegrated with an 11-22 mark. An offense that was fifth in runs in baseball before Carlos Correa went on the injured list is scoring only 3.7 runs per game and a pitching staff running on fumes has a 4.78 ERA in 33 games. Though Correa and Byron Buxton recently returned after missing significant time with injuries, they ended a 2-5 road trip through Cleveland Boston with a horrid showing in Sunday’s doubleheader at Fenway Park.
Mariners: One holders of a 10-game lead in the AL West, the Mariners were 64-64 when they fired manager Scott Servais on Aug. 22. They won 16 of their next 28 under manager Dan Wilson, good enough to stay on the fringes of wild card contention.
The Bottom Line
Orioles: Baltimore might have the toughest schedule among possible wild-card teams. But they are 3-0 against the Twins, and barring a total collapse, they’re headed to the postseason for the second straight year.
Royals: Kansas City enters Tuesday having scored just four runs in their last five games, including one in a three-game sweep against the Giants. They catch a break – of sorts – in matching up with the Washington Nationals, who will be without shortstop C.J. Abrams. But they’ll finish up at the Braves, who could be fighting for their own postseason life.
Tigers: The Tigers enter their final homestand no longer making up ground but now in control of their own destiny. They play three against the Rays and could seal a spot in the playoffs thanks to a finale series against the historically terrible Chicago White Sox.
Twins: Similar to the Royals, they can get right at home against a Miami team which has won only three of its last 13 before facing a potent Orioles squad that swept them in Baltimore but could use the final series to align its playoff rotation. They only need to catch one of Kansas City or Detroit and hold the tiebreaker against both and in the case of a three- and four-way tie.
Mariners: Seattle needs to essentially run the table — and hope for some help.
(Top photo: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)
