Bye, Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen is our new NFL MVP favorite.
With a performance straight out of the MVP handbook, Allen completed 23-of-30 passes for 263 yards and four touchdowns and rushed for 44 yards in the Buffalo Bills’ 47-10 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. As The Athletic’s senior Bills writer Tim Graham pointed out, by halftime Allen had played one of the greatest statistical games of his career.
Allen’s epic night led to an overnight shift in the NFL MVP betting market.
Before Monday night’s game, the Buffalo quarterback’s odds to win MVP were +400 on BetMGM. After the game, he had leapfrogged Mahomes to become the new betting favorite at +225. Heading into the season, Allen sat at +800 to win the award.
Mahomes is right behind Allen at +325 but hasn’t looked like himself yet, with five touchdowns and four interceptions. But let’s not get it twisted: The Chiefs are undefeated, and in the words of The Athletic’s Jeff Howe, Mahomes’ superlatives are still unmatched. Allen’s stats are just considerably better right now.
Aside from a new odds leader, several quarterbacks have exceeded expectations across the first three weeks of the season, and MVP odds have shortened to match their performances. Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers are the most notable of that bunch.
On the flip side, Joe Burrow may be the biggest loser after Week 3, with his MVP odds moving in the wrong direction after the Cincinnati Bengals slid to an 0-3 start.
Three weeks is too small a sample size to draw big conclusions from, but the betting markets are always moving. Let’s dig into the current MVP odds and the biggest risers and fallers after Week 3.
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NFL regular season MVP winner odds
MVP risers
Here are the biggest risers in odds to win MVP this year, with their opening odds listed before their current odds.
Sam Darnold (+20000 to +2500)
Darnold opened at +20000 (200-to-1!) to win MVP and was +6600 heading into Week 3. Now he’s listed at +2500 (25-to-1). Darnold is still a long shot, but the Minnesota Vikings are 3-0, and he looks rejuvenated on the field thanks to head coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme. Darnold has thrown for 657 yards and eight touchdowns this season.
Aaron Rodgers (+2500 to +1600)
Rodgers is another quarterback climbing up the MVP betting board. He opened at +2500 with doubts about his age and health lingering through the offseason. After a vintage Rodgers performance against the New England Patriots in Week 3 (27-of-35 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns), Rodgers’ odds collapsed down to +1600.
Other notable risers:
- Kyler Murray (+5000 to +3000)
- Derek Carr (+20000 to +5000)
- Saquon Barkley (+30000 to +6600)
MVP fallers
Joe Burrow (+900 to +2500)
The other side of the movement? Burrow probably suffered the most in Week 3, with his MVP odds sliding from +900 (top three) to +2500 (seventh). Burrow has been improving each week, but the Bengals have yet to notch a win, and their Super Bowl odds are fading, too. In their loss against the Commanders, Burrow was an outstanding 29-of-38 for 324 yards and three touchdowns. No shocker here, but the team will have to start winning for their QB’s odds in this market to improve.
Other notable fallers:
Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert are struggling with injuries, and Purdy’s San Francisco 49ers and Anthony Richardson’s Indianapolis Colts are both 1-2.
- Brock Purdy (+1600 to +2500)
- Justin Herbert (+1400 to +8000)
- Anthony Richardson (+2500 to +15000)
(Photo of Josh Allen: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)
