ATLANTA — The New York Mets’ path to a postseason berth has become a whole lot more complicated.
Rain has postponed both Wednesday and Thursday’s scheduled games in Atlanta, forcing an end-of-season doubleheader Monday. While the extra rest could be good for, say, Francisco Lindor’s sore back, it makes the Mets’ pitching plans over the weekend and into next week much more complex.
“We’ve been through a lot this year. This is nothing new for us,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “We’ll be ready to go.”
Let’s break it down.
What do we know about the Mets’ pitching plans the rest of the regular season?
A team source said Sean Manaea is almost definitely starting Friday night in Milwaukee; Mendoza had said publicly Wednesday that Manaea was the likely choice. That would be Manaea’s last start of the regular season, permitting him to pitch on regular rest in Game 2 of a potential Wild Card Series.
Speculating for the days after that, it makes sense for David Peterson to start Saturday, which would allow him to come back for Game 3 of a Wild Card Series.
For Sunday and Monday, the Mets would have Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Tylor Megill all rested and ready to go. But they might not want to use all of them, because …
What’s the biggest conundrum caused by Monday’s likely doubleheader?
The Mets are scheduled to play five games in four days. If they just stick with their current rotation and make the Wild Card Series, they’d have a playoff game Tuesday without any of their starters on regular rest. They could aim to start someone on three days’ rest, but that’s surely suboptimal. None of the Mets’ five starters has ever started a major-league game on three days’ rest after a prior start.
The other option would be to use a bullpen game either over the weekend in Milwaukee or in Monday’s doubleheader. One would think doing it in Milwaukee, against a team unlikely to be playing for something, is preferable to doing it Monday.
Is Kodai Senga in play?
While the Mets had previously ruled Senga out for the remainder of the regular season, privately they expressed some optimism that he could still factor into the plans this weekend. Starting off a bullpen game could be the best shot to bring him back into the fold. That said, one team source said leaning on Senga in that kind of situation would be “hard to do.” The right-hander felt discomfort in his tricep after his lone rehab appearance for Triple-A Syracuse last week.
What does this do to the Mets bullpen?
If the Mets are playing a Wild Card Series, they could be playing eight high-leverage games in seven days. Their bullpen has been preserved throughout September by a starting rotation that has routinely pitched deep into games. (The Mets haven’t had to make a roster move to supplement their pen the entire month.) But the leash on those starters will be significantly shorter, with more and more innings being taken up by the bullpen.
Who could help out the bullpen?
The Mets will get an extra player for Monday’s doubleheader. Count on that being one of Shintaro Fujinami, Max Kranick or Matt Gage, three Triple-A pitchers the Mets had told to stay ready if needed into October. Club officials have liked the improvements all three have made, pointing particularly to better numbers in the second half. They’d have confidence calling on any of them if needed.
They may need to make an additional roster move before the end of the season to have enough fresh arms to cover all those innings. Any pitcher sent down between now and the end of the season wouldn’t be eligible to come back for either the Wild Card Series or a Division Series unless another player landed on the injured list.
How are things looking for Atlanta’s rotation?
The good news is the Mets should miss Max Fried, who would presumably pitch this weekend against Kansas City. However, there’s a chance they might not miss Chris Sale, who could be held back for Monday. (That’s not ideal for Atlanta, since then neither would be on regular rest for a Tuesday Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.) In that scenario, though, the additional bad news would be Atlanta could bring back Spencer Schwellenbach to face the Mets again Monday.
Will Monday’s games definitely be played?
No. If both New York and Atlanta have clinched playoff berths, it will be up to commissioner Rob Manfred to decide whether seeding is important enough to merit the doubleheader. However, the two clubs would only be able to clinch playoff berths by Sunday with the significant help of the Arizona Diamondbacks. New York’s magic number to clinch a berth above Arizona is four, Atlanta’s five.
(Top photo of Sean Manaea: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
