Cowboys-Giants predictions and preview: A lot hinges on this game with tough road ahead

A dominating win followed by two dismal defensive performances and losses … who knows what the Dallas Cowboys will do in prime-time Thursday against the New York Giants?

But we know this: The Cowboys need a win because the schedule doesn’t get any easier (at the Pittsburgh Steelers, home against the Detroit Lions, followed by post-bye week road games against the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons).

The Athletic’s Jon Machota and Saad Yousuf weigh in on the NFC East showdown Thursday night at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

1. The Cowboys will beat the Giants on Thursday night if what happens?

Machota: If they stop the run. Obviously easier said than done with this group, but that’s the area that will have the biggest impact on the outcome. If Devin Singletary and Daniel Jones are making big plays with their feet, the Cowboys are in trouble. The Giants aren’t as good as the New Orleans Saints or Baltimore Ravens, both victors over Dallas. The Cowboys have had the Giants’ number almost Dak Prescott’s entire career. This should be the type of game that allows Dallas to do some good things and build confidence heading into more difficult games against the Steelers and Lions. But if that run defense looks anything like it has the last two weeks, any team can beat the Cowboys.

Yousuf: The offense is clicking on all cylinders. The story of the season so far has been the defense and that unit has to be better, especially against the run. But short of Jones and Singletary replicating what the Saints and Ravens did, the Cowboys’ offense has to be good enough to win the game, regardless of what the Giants do offensively. This is the kind of game Prescott and CeeDee Lamb need to show why they deservedly got the big contracts. New York’s defense, already nothing spectacular, is dealing with injuries in the secondary. Prescott and company have no excuse to not outscore the Giants.

2. The Cowboys will lose on Thursday if what happens?

Machota: Since I already touched on the importance of Dallas showing improvement in its run defense, next up is capitalizing in the red zone. The weather could be an issue. Counting on Brandon Aubrey to nail 50-plus yard field goal after 50-plus yard field goal isn’t a good strategy. I think this will end up being a game where Prescott and Lamb look more like what we saw last season. Lamb has played well after having some bad body language and frustrating play the week before. This seems like the type of game where he makes several big plays. I have doubts about the running game all of a sudden getting on track, so I think the Cowboys could lose if Prescott and Lamb aren’t better than they’ve been early this season.

Yousuf: They are unable to respond quickly to adversity. The Cowboys have had a pretty easy time with the Giants in the Prescott era so it wouldn’t be surprising if they got ahead early and never looked back. Even if the Giants make some big plays, the Cowboys have to be composed and respond in a timely fashion and not let the game get away from them. Playing from ahead is the best way to protect the Cowboys’ leaky run defense.

3. Which player on defense has been the biggest disappointment during the two-game losing streak?

Machota: Everything has been so poor that it’s difficult to put any of it on one player. But considering the expectations because of his talent, it’s Micah Parsons. The run defense has been such a disaster that teams haven’t needed to throw much against Dallas, which decreases the importance of one of the game’s best pass rushers. Parsons hasn’t made nearly enough big plays the last two weeks. He has no tackles for loss, no sacks and only one QB hit over that period. The defense usually goes as Parsons goes. Dallas needs him to get back to wrecking games. Parsons not having a bigger impact is also somewhat concerning because early in the season is usually when he’s fresh and at his best. As he takes on double teams and larger offensive linemen, usually the wear and tear takes a toll later in the year.

Yousuf: In order to be a disappointment, there have to be expectations to begin with. The defensive tackles have been the biggest sore spot but each of them have performed how one would have expected them to coming into the season, which is not great. The Cowboys are greatly counting on Trevon Diggs, especially in the absence of DaRon Bland. Diggs has shown a reluctance to be physical and make tackles. That’s always been a narrative around him but he usually balances out things with his prowess against the pass, namely forcing turnovers. Last week against the Ravens, Diggs got beat on the game-sealing third down.  Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has enough to figure out with the struggles of his defensive front. The superstar cornerback shouldn’t be adding to the struggles.

4. We’re only three games in, but based on what you’ve seen, what are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for this team?

Machota: The best case is they win Thursday, split with the Steelers and Lions and go into the bye week 3-3. If that happens, I could see them winning six or seven of their final 11 and potentially winning the division or getting a wild-card spot with nine or 10 wins. Worst case: They lose Thursday and things really start to unravel. In that scenario, they could easily go into the bye week at 1-5 and somewhere during that stretch you’d likely be looking at a coaching change. Nothing great would come of that scenario. If that happened, I could see the Cowboys finishing with only four or five wins. I thought they would win 10 entering the season. If they take care of business Thursday night, I think that’s still possible.

Yousuf: Coming into the season, I felt like 12 wins was the ceiling for the Cowboys. Going into Week 4, it feels like the ceiling is down to 10 wins. The Cowboys themselves play a role in why the NFC East appears weak. Getting 10 wins and winning the division feels like the best-case scenario in terms of record but the other thing that plays into a positive outlook is health going into January. The Cowboys were remarkably healthy last year and have avoided any major injury concerns thus far. Maintaining that while getting into the playoffs would be high on their list. The worst-case scenario would begin with a loss Thursday. As long as they still have a healthy core, it’s hard to see them dipping below six or seven wins, but falling that low and missing the playoffs certainly feels conceivable, whereas entering the season, nine wins felt like the basement for a healthy Dallas team.

5. Prediction?

Machota: The Cowboys get back on track and look more like the team we saw in Cleveland. The Giants are probably better than last year, but they aren’t better than Dallas, even with what has happened the last two weeks. I think the run defense will look better, Prescott and Lamb will click, and it will open up things for Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks. The running game ends up looking OK with Ezekiel Elliott leading the way with 65 yards. It’s not an impressive blowout win like we saw from the Cowboys in their two games against the Giants last year, but it gets them back to .500 and, for a few days, it doesn’t look like the sky is falling. Malik Nabers, Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns are all reasons to think this one will be closer than last year. Cowboys 24, Giants 17.

Yousuf: Last week, even though the Cowboys were coming off an embarrassing loss to the Saints, it felt like the then 0-2 Ravens, who have a tough schedule ahead, were the more desperate team. This week, it feels like the Cowboys’ desperation should be at fever pitch. It would be unwise to dismiss the Giants because there are definitely elements that can catapult them to a win over a vulnerable Cowboys team. However, the players have all spoken to the urgency at hand and still feel bought in to the coaching staff. That, along with the edge in roster talent — especially at quarterback position — should help the Cowboys come out on top. Cowboys 31, Giants 21.

(Top photo of Malik Nabers: Randy Litzinger / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)