WASHINGTON — On Sept. 26, 2023, with their first Washington Wizards training camp approaching, new team executives Michael Winger and Will Dawkins spoke to the local media and took pains to avoid uttering one of sports’ most taboo words: “rebuild.” Instead, they employed the euphemisms “refresh” and “restart” to describe the beginning of the team’s post-Bradley Beal world.
On Thursday, exactly one year later, with another training camp looming, Dawkins did not hesitate to use the word he once shunned.
“If we’re really to think about it, the phases of the rebuild,” the Wizards’ general manager told a group of reporters, “there’s the deconstruction phase. There’s the laying-the-foundation phase. There’s the building it back up, and then there’s fortifying what you build. We’re still focused on deconstructing and laying that foundation. And I think that’s important to remind everyone, that we’re still early (in the process).”
It was a clear-eyed and refreshingly blunt reminder of what almost certainly will occur in the months to come. After a franchise-worst 15-67 season, additional misery is on the near horizon, though perhaps not to the same degree.
No doubt it will be painful in the short term for players and fans alike. But that deliberate strategy of tearing things down and constructing anew also offers reason for hope. As much as the 2024-25 season must be about developing second-year wing Bilal Coulibaly and teaching rookies Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George and Alex Sarr how to grow into effective NBA players, the year ahead also should be about competing in the race toward the bottom of the league standings. The top of the 2025 NBA Draft, which likely will include Duke’s Cooper Flagg, Rutgers’ Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper and Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe, is thought to be so rich in talent that drafting any one of those coveted prospects could change the Wizards’ fortunes overnight.
The draft lottery is the unmistakable backdrop to the season ahead, no matter how many steals Coulibaly compiles, no matter how many assists Carrington dishes out and no matter how many shots Sarr swats.
That’s the rub: The lottery comes down to dumb luck. In 2019, the league enacted reforms designed to discourage tanking, leaving the three worst teams in any season an equal 14.0 percent chance of winning the first pick, a 13.4 percent probability of receiving the second pick, 12.7 percent odds of securing the third pick and a 12.0 percent chance of picking fourth.
The danger — and “danger” is not too strong a word to use — is dropping out of the top five entirely. Only the team with the worst overall record is guaranteed to win a top-five pick. The second-worst team will have a 20.0 percent likelihood of drafting sixth. The third-worst team will have a 26.0 percent chance of falling to sixth and a 7.0 percent chance of plummeting to seventh.
This is the line Washington will have to tread all season long, especially with the Brooklyn Nets having stripped their roster more ruthlessly than the Wizards have done.
Dawkins said he expects the team to improve from last season.
“I’m excited, one, to see all that (coach) Brian Keefe has done,” Dawkins said. “… He’s had a whole offseason to think through stylistically how he wants to play. He has a better feel for our core group of players, and he’s hired a staff that’s going to challenge him to think and are already challenging him to think. So, I’m excited stylistically.
“I would say our fans can anticipate us using that versatility that we’ve added. We want to play (players at) multiple positions. I think you’ve seen we’ve added bigger, longer guys. We are going to be a better defensive team. We are going to have more of a better disposition. Are we going to make massive strides? Probably not right away. But the intent, the effort, that will be better.”
Dawkins said that, unless an injury occurs in the days ahead, all players on the roster should be available to practice fully when training camp opens Tuesday. That’s a welcome change from last year, when center Daniel Gafford (left elbow strain) and guard Landry Shamet (broken toe) could not practice in early October because of injuries they suffered in late September.
The Wizards’ front office will have until Oct. 31 to decide whether it will exercise 2025-26 team options on former first-round draft choices Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Johnny Davis. Asked when the team will make decisions on those fourth-year options, Dawkins answered, “We’ve always made those decisions (on options) toward the end of camp. I don’t think that’ll be any different this year.”
Dawkins said he expects improvement from guard Jordan Poole, who will be entering his second season with Washington. Poole made a jump at the University of Michigan between his freshman and sophomore seasons and made a jump with the Golden State Warriors during his second pro season.
“I think Jordan is approaching his prime,” Dawkins said of the 25-year-old. “I’d say he’s probably close to a pre-prime player just on his age range. Just being around him, he’s much more comfortable being here in D.C., much more comfortable being around our group. … I think you’ll see the ball in his hands a little bit more than you did at the beginning of the year last year and a style of play that kind of suits him in terms of pace. Both Jordan and Kyle (Kuzma) are leaders on our team.”
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(Top photo of Jordan Poole and Jae Crowder: Reggie Hildred / USA Today)
