Two full weeks into the season, more than a handful of teams that expected to compete for the College Football Playoff now have their season goals dangling like a piece of yarn with the football gods holding the scissors.
Welcome to the new world of college football. For every feel-good college football moment in DeKalb, Ill., or Chestnut Hill, Mass., there’s anger, bewilderment and frustration in South Bend, Ind., Iowa City, Iowa, and Baton Rouge, La. One loss doesn’t outright dash a team’s CFP hopes, but it removes the “oops” factor that befalls many programs when injuries pile up.
Currently, there are 27 power-conference teams (and Notre Dame) with at least one loss, and all of them are alive for an automatic CFP berth. But what about one of the six at-large positions? In analyzing each team’s loss, roster and upcoming schedule, categories have emerged among the one-loss programs. Some still have CFP prospects, those that need supernatural intervention, a few that just aren’t good enough to get there and two that have no chance at an at-large bid. Let’s take a look at these teams in order.
Still alive
LSU — Of the one-loss SEC teams, LSU has the second-most advantageous schedule and the most potential to rebound. Sure, the No. 16 Tigers face No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 4 Alabama and No. 15 Oklahoma. But LSU doesn’t have to win them all and has enough talent to make a CFP push. A 10-2 mark gets the Tigers in the tournament.
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Notre Dame — Oh, boy. After a 10-point win at Texas A&M, the Irish looked like a CFP layup. Now, after a shocking loss to Northern Illinois, can Notre Dame even make it? Yes, the Irish can. But there’s no margin for error, and it might come down to the finale at USC, but an 11-1 Notre Dame squad with one hiccup will earn a CFP bid. At 10-2 with a loss to a MAC team, that’s difficult.
Texas A&M — No team has a better schedule and opportunity than A&M. Although losing to Notre Dame in retrospect appears damaging, the Aggies have games against three ranked opponents in Missouri, LSU and Texas, and they’re all in College Station. If they take care of the teams in their situation, the Aggies’ CFP hopes could lie with their long-awaited meeting with the Longhorns.
Michigan — The defending champs are nowhere near a CFP contender as of today. But the Wolverines can grow into one, and that matters. The 31-12 home loss to No. 2 Texas looks bad, but other contenders will suffer a worse fate against the Longhorns. The question is, can Michigan turn it around against USC on Sept. 21? If not, the Wolverines will have to sweep Oregon and Ohio State in November plus beat a bunch of mid-level Big Ten teams that would love to ruin their season.
Walking a tightrope
Iowa — For one half against Iowa State, the Hawkeyes looked like a serious CFP contender. Then, they looked as flawed as ever offensively in a 20-19 last-second loss. Luckily for Iowa, there’s opportunity with only one daunting matchup at No. 2 Ohio State. But the Hawkeyes face neighborhood rivals in Nebraska and Wisconsin that look at least as good as them. Iowa has put itself in the fun position of rooting for the Cyclones to bolster its resume.
Clemson — Losing 34-3 to top-ranked Georgia doesn’t eliminate the Tigers from at-large consideration, but it does cost them the benefit of doubt. To compete for an at-large spot, Clemson needs to at least win out during the regular season. It’s possible, but the opening-day result will get compared alongside the SEC teams that also lose to Georgia. Of course, there’s always winning the ACC title, which the Tigers seem equipped to do.
Kansas — The Jayhawks became darlings last year with a nine-win season and a victory over Oklahoma in their series finale. One team Kansas beat along the way was Illinois, which exacted some revenge on Saturday, 23-17. The Jayhawks face a challenging but not overbearing Big 12 slate. They’re capable of beating just about any conference foe, but as the loss to Illinois proved, they can also lose to anyone.
West Virginia — A 22-point home loss to any team doesn’t look good, even against a top-10 team like Penn State in the opener. Among Big 12 teams, nobody has a more difficult early schedule. After traveling to arch-rival Pitt this weekend, the Mountaineers face Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona in succession. If West Virginia comes out of that stretch unbeaten, it strongly warrants at-large discussion. But if that happened, the Mountaineers would be the favorites for the Big 12’s automatic bid.
Virginia Tech — Perhaps no team is more surprised to wind up in this spot than the Hokies. With a manageable ACC schedule and some offseason improvements, Virginia Tech gained serious traction as an ACC contender or even an at-large dark horse. But losing to Vanderbilt in Week 1 will get held against the Hokies in the court of public opinion all the way through Selection Sunday.
NC State — Like with Clemson, which it happens to play next week, NC State has little at-large juice after a 51-10 loss to Tennessee in Charlotte, N.C. The Wolfpack need to roll through the ACC campaign unbeaten to give them a shot at an at-large bid should they make the title game. Considering NC State hasn’t done that since 1973, it’s time to brush up on the bowl alignment.
Cincinnati — A collapse like what took place Saturday has the potential to ruin seasons, let alone CFP prospects. The Bearcats led by three touchdowns late in the third quarter only to see Pitt score 22 consecutive points to pull out a 28-27 comeback. Although Cincinnati appears improved, going to Iowa State and Kansas State consecutively in November does not provide much confidence.
Not eliminated but …
Auburn — No SEC fan base is more surprised to be in this position than Auburn’s. The expectation was to roll through the nonconference schedule to build some wiggle room through an unforgiving SEC slate. Instead, a 21-14 home loss to California gives the Tigers one more mulligan before they’re eliminated. And with annual rivals Georgia and Alabama on the schedule, Auburn can’t rely on a Jordan-Hare miracle because both games are on the road.
Arkansas — Sitting with a two-touchdown lead over ranked Oklahoma State, there were smiles aplenty for the Razorbacks. Then came the crash with a double-overtime defeat even when piling up 648 total yards. Now, Arkansas stares at a schedule with four opponents ranked in the top seven, plus LSU and comparable teams in its position. Forget the Playoff, can Arkansas even make a bowl?
SMU — New to power-conference football, SMU dropped a three-point decision to second-year Power 4 newbie, BYU. It’s a transition year for the Mustangs, and with an annual rivalry game with TCU coupled with an ACC schedule, it’s unrealistic to expect them to contend right away for the CFP.
Florida State — It’s stunning how quickly Florida State (0-2) fell from overwhelming ACC favorite to a pair of conference defeats. The Seminoles’ at-large hopes are on a respirator, which means they have to win out and probably reach the ACC title game. Even if that happens, they still probably won’t make it. An even bigger problem lies with losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College, which could keep the Seminoles from the ACC title game, which is by far their best hope.
Not good enough
Northwestern — The Wildcats are still trying to figure out their identity, so it’s unreasonable to expect them to battle for contention this year. They’re trying out a new quarterback this week, too. But a double-overtime home loss to Duke just about sealed the CFP door shut with the Wildcats still facing Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State.
Baylor — Losing by 11 points at Utah in a nonconference game is hardly a travesty for the Bears. But coming off a 3-9 season and playing a list of Big 12 contenders ranging from Iowa State to Oklahoma State, it’s unlikely Baylor would remain unscathed even had it pulled a road upset.
Minnesota — The Gophers don’t have enough pieces to run this race, but starting Sept. 21 with a trio of Iowa, Michigan and USC and then ending the year with Penn State and Wisconsin, they don’t have much hope, either. Sure, they could notch an upset or two, but missing a field goal on the game’s final play against North Carolina stripped away Minnesota’s buffer.
Colorado — Teams with liabilities on defense and the offensive line never make a Playoff push, so despite the overwhelming public interest, the Buffaloes won’t be making travel plans to another campus in mid-December. They got exposed by Nebraska, and they have several potential potholes throughout the Big 12 campaign. But with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and all-everything threat Travis Hunter, Colorado at least will be exciting.
Stanford — A season-opening loss by a touchdown to TCU doesn’t eliminate the Cardinal, who actually have a schedule capable of elevating into CFP discussion. In consecutive weeks, Stanford travels to Clemson, hosts Virginia Tech and then travels to Notre Dame. While the Cardinal won’t be favored in those games, none of them look as daunting as they did before the season. But they were 3-9 last year and play in a different conference, so take those sentiments in moderation.
Maryland — The Terps lost a touchdown lead inside of five minutes remaining and fell to Michigan State by three points in the Big Ten opener. There’s not much separating Maryland from many other Big Ten also-rans, and with games against Oregon, Penn State, Iowa and USC, the Spartans’ CFP hopes weren’t realistic anyway.
Mississippi State — After losing to Arizona State, it might be time to peek at the SEC’s bowl lineup. In late September and early October, the Bulldogs have a two-game stretch at No. 2 Texas, then at No. 1 Georgia. They finish at Tennessee, at home with Missouri and at Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. There’s not much to be thankful about there.
Kentucky — It’s one thing to lose 31-6 in an SEC game. It’s quite another to lose that badly to South Carolina and the next game is against No. 1 Georgia. Oh, and there are still games against No. 2 Texas, No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 7 Tennessee and No. 19 Louisville.
Wake Forest — For three quarters, it appeared Virginia would land on this list, not the Demon Deacons. But Wake Forest surrendered a 13-point, fourth-quarter lead and lost 31-30. With a home game against Ole Miss this weekend, the CFP dream realistically ended last weekend.
Texas Tech — A three-touchdown loss at Washington State just about eliminates the Red Raiders from the at-large discussion, barring a perfect run through the Big 12 and a close championship game defeat. That scenario seems unrealistic.
Florida — Virtually all CFP hopes vanished after a 41-17 thrashing by Miami in Week 1. Coming up for the Gators includes four games against top-seven opponents, plus No. 16 LSU and instate foes UCF and Florida State. There are a few more questions ahead for Florida more pressing than postseason football.
Houston — At 0-2 overall, Houston’s CFP at-large hopes are kaput, especially after losing 27-7 to UNLV in the opener. At least for the Cougars, there’s a full Big 12 campaign ahead.
(Top photos of Garrett Nussmeier, left, and Riley Leonard: Stephen Lew and Michael Clubb / USA Today)
