Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North beat writers gather for a roundtable discussion on the happenings, player movement and pressing issues facing all four teams. It’s time to analyze what to make of this division going into Week 4.
Just as we all predicted, the Justin Fields-led Steelers remain undefeated while the Bengals haven’t won a game in Joe Burrow’s comeback season. Which of these two teams — the 3-0 Steelers or 0-3 Bengals — is more accurately represented by its record?
Mike DeFabo (Pittsburgh Steelers): I’m going to go out on a limb and say the 1972 Miami Dolphins don’t have to worry about the Steelers matching their perfect Super Bowl run. And on the flip side, the 2024 Bengals won’t be the first team to go winless in a 17-game season. The opponents have a lot to do with the results, as the Steelers’ first three wins came against teams that went a combined 20-31 last year. Pittsburgh’s defense has been almost as perfect as the Steelers’ record. But the real test of the Steelers’ ceiling will be how much their new-look offense evolves and what they do against legitimate playoff contenders. That said, they’re a lot closer to 3-0 than the Bengals are to a winless team.
Jeff Zrebiec (Baltimore Ravens): The Bengals aren’t an 0-3 team. They outplayed the Chiefs in Week 2, and their defense played well enough to win. Their offense looked great against the Commanders. They have a lot to figure out, and their defensive effort Monday was a joke, but they could just as easily be 2-1 or 3-0. By process of elimination, I’d say the Steelers. I’m not sure anything has been all that surprising about their start beyond the quarterback leading the offense. We knew their defense would be really good. We knew they had a great kicker. We knew they’d struggle at times on offense, and they have. When you also factor in who they played and when they played them, the Steelers’ 3-0 start doesn’t feel out of whack from who they are. We’ll learn much more about them in the second half of the season.
Zac Jackson (Cleveland Browns): I know bad ball, so my gut says the answer is the Bengals. But after some thought, I think I’ll pick the Steelers. It’s ugly, which is fine. Parts of it aren’t sustainable, but every week is its own adventure in this league. Defense travels, and there’s something to be said for a team that wins second halves and the big situations, developing habits that help that team continue to do that. It’s still too early to jump to conclusions for any of the four teams, but I think the Steelers have shown they’re hard to play against and resilient. They deserve to be 3-0.
Dehner Jr. (Cincinnati Bengals): Phew, we are starting to reach “you are what your record says you are” territory. I’ll still revert to the quarterbacks when trying to figure out the long-term sustainability. It’s hard to envision Burrow, especially playing at the current level, continuing down this path. While Fields has certainly given enough to allow that defense to keep eating teams alive, he’ll need to do more at some point, especially when the Pittsburgh schedule stiffens down the stretch. I’m not definitive in either direction and am buying what the Steelers are selling, but that’s my rationale for breaking the tie.
New PD&Jay:
🎙️Hear from Lou Anarumo & Joe Burrow
⚖️ Weighing changes #Bengals will make on defense vs ones they should
💪 @josephperson joins from Carolina
🔮 #JaysGotsStats, Growler Bet, predictions
📺: https://t.co/j54g8izXQ5
🔗: https://t.co/CsRcgF1ti2— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) September 26, 2024
Injuries are adding up around the division. Which setback has the potential to be most significant for the team you cover?
Dehner: Pick your defensive line injury here. Myles Murphy (knee), B.J. Hill (hamstring), Sheldon Rankins (hamstring), McKinnley Jackson (knee), Cam Sample (Achilles) were all in the projected rotation. All were out Monday, and it showed. If you go up to the Paycor Stadium press box, I think Jayden Daniels is still standing in the pocket unbothered. I’ll go with Rankins, though. They paid him big money to generate pass rush up the middle, and there are no real answers on the roster behind him.
Jackson: The Browns will be without Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller for at least four weeks, and Teller’s one of several offensive line injury issues the Browns have encountered. But in the bigger picture, the most significant is probably the line on the injury report that says Myles Garrett is dealing with foot, Achilles and hip injuries. Garrett is probably going to keep playing right now, but if he’s not at peak effectiveness over the next several weeks, the Browns might be in big trouble.
DeFabo: Injuries are one way for the Steelers’ promising start to unravel. Right now, they’re dealing with a lot, between running back Jaylen Warren (knee), offensive guard Isaac Seumalo (pec) and first-round pick Troy Fautanu (knee). But my answer here is edge rusher Alex Highsmith, who is expected to miss a few weeks with a groin injury. The Steelers’ defense is predicated upon pressure. When that is missing, the entire chain reaction falls apart. I have a lot of confidence in second-year outside linebacker Nick Herbig. The biggest question is how well a 6-foot-2, 240-pound linebacker can set the edge, especially against the Colts’ dynamic backfield duo of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor.
Zrebiec: The Ravens have problems, but injuries, at least to this point, haven’t been one of them. It does feel like a few of their top guys, including Mark Andrews, Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton, are battling through some physical issues that have impacted their effectiveness somewhat. But the list of veterans who are 100 percent around the league, even only a few weeks in, is probably pretty short. Beyond that, the Ravens’ most relevant known injury is slot cornerback Arthur Maulet, who had his knee scoped during training camp and is out through at least Week 4. The Ravens currently have the league’s worst pass defense, so Maulet, who was a key player last year with his ability to cover in the slot and blitz, should help. However, the Ravens can’t use injuries as an excuse for their inconsistent start.
The Steelers’ QB competition (or maybe controversy is becoming a better word) has been a national narrative. But Russell Wilson and Fields aren’t the only signal callers in this division under a microscope. How do you evaluate the QB play from the team you cover?
Jackson: Deshaun Watson seems lost. He’s not the only issue with the offense, and he has certainly been put in bad spots by the team’s offensive line issues and a bunch of dropped passes. But the Browns are searching for answers in just about every area of their offense, and it’s clear that Kevin Stefanski and Watson still don’t have a full connection on either what the Browns want to be or how Watson will perform in clutch situations. The Browns haven’t hit enough easy ones, and really nothing is coming easy for them right now. Stefanski can’t pull Watson right now for multiple reasons, but let’s check back in 3-4 weeks.
DeFabo: When coach Mike Tomlin was asked to evaluate Fields, his answer was “he’s doing what we’re asking.” That was an apt way to describe it. Through the first two weeks, the Steelers featured a conservative, run-heavy attack that relied on short passes mostly outside the numbers with the occasional deep ball thrown in. But last week, against a two-high shell, Fields showed growth. He was accurate underneath to take advantage of this coverage and, when asked, he found the soft spot between the two safeties, including on the game-clinching, 55-yard touchdown to Calvin Austin III. More games like this and we’ll be talking about Fields’ future in Pittsburgh.
JUSTIN FIELDS TO CALVIN AUSTIN III. 55-YARD TD.
📺: #LACvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/IyvXrXm1pU— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
Dehner: It’s hard to argue with what Burrow has produced the last two weeks after an inauspicious opener against New England. In the last two weeks, he has a completion percentage above 70, 291 yards per game, five touchdowns, no interceptions and a 115.9 passer rating. Outside of the fumble in Kansas City and two failed red zone possessions on Monday, he’s resembled the best version of his former self. The level he has stair-stepped to is the primary reason the Bengals think they can dig out of the 0-3 hole.
Zrebiec: Lamar Jackson has been good. He’s done well handling increased pre-snap responsibilities. Playing behind a leaky offensive line, he’s made good decisions, with his lone interception hitting off a wide receiver’s hands. He’s done a lot of damage with his legs. He’s top 10 in the league in passing and rushing yards for an offense that ranks second in the NFL in DVOA through three weeks. He hasn’t been perfect, but obsessing over a missed throw here or there with how much of a burden he shoulders for the Ravens feels nitpicky. If Jackson keeps this up and the Ravens rebound from an 0-2 start, the quarterback will again be in the MVP discussion.
Prediction time. Can the Steelers stay perfect in Indy? Will the Browns bounce back against the Raiders? Can the Ravens win another measuring-stick game against the Bills? And will the Bengals roll past the Panthers, or will their old friend Andy Dalton have something to say about it?
Zrebiec: We’re getting pretty close to having just as good of a chance of hitting on the weekly winners by picking names out of a hat. This is a dangerous game for the Steelers, but they are the better team, so I’ll go with them in a close one. This feels like an early last-stand type of game for the Bengals. I don’t believe they are buried at 0-3. But if they get to 0-4, I’m not sure there’s a way to the playoffs from there. I think they’ll blow out the Panthers. Against my better judgment, I’m picking the Browns. Beyond one quarter in Baltimore, the Raiders have been pretty meh this year. The Ravens are a tough out at home in prime time, but I think they’re going to have an awfully hard time matching up with Josh Allen. It’s a week-to-week league, but the Bills are just playing at a much higher level right now. They should win a close one.
Dehner: There have been four AFC North teams to start a season 4-0 since the formation of the division in 2002. All four finished with at least 11 wins and won the division. There have been six teams that started 3-0, and only two won the division. Each of the other four finished second. It might not seem like I have a point in mentioning this, but I do: This game in Indianapolis is historically critical for the chances of the division. I think Indy is exactly the type of team the Steelers have been disposing of, and I think they do it again and position themselves ideally for a division title. The Browns beat the Raiders because the Raiders aren’t good. The Bills beat the Ravens because I’m still worried about Baltimore’s ability to put away games, and Allen is a master at pulling off comebacks. The Bengals win because it’s the Panthers, but I don’t know how anybody feels comfortable for a second predicting wins for Cincinnati right now.
Jackson: I’ll take the Colts in a close one, 17-16. I’ll take the Browns in a close one, 13-12. I’ll take the Bengals in a bit of a wild one, 31-27. And on Sunday night, I think the Ravens will perform well offensively, then try to give it away late — as they do — before surviving, 27-25.
DeFabo: A 3-0 record and an underwhelming opponent? We’ve seen the Steelers lose too many of these letdown games over the years. However, I think the Steelers’ defense will give Richardson fits, and I like Pittsburgh to improve to 4-0. The Bengals are in must-win territory, and I believe in Burrow to get it done. I’m picking the Browns to lose a close one. And Baltimore? That’s the toughest call. It feels like they’re starting to figure it out. I just have a hard time picking against Allen after his big-time performance on “Monday Night Football,” especially against a Ravens secondary that’s struggled this season.
(Photos of Justin Fields and Joe Burrow: Joe Sargent / Getty Images, Cara Owsley / The Enquirer / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
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