You know the sports card hobby has essentially quit on you when your Donruss Optic Downtown card from your rookie year with a gem mint 10 grade from Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA) can’t score $100.
Here’s looking at you, Sam Darnold.
Darnold’s 2018 Downtown (a popular insert card that typically appears only once per case of hobby boxes) only landed $97.76 for a seller on Jan. 25, according to Card Ladder, which tracks trading card sales across the top online marketplaces.
It gets worse.
It’s the lowest selling Donruss Optic Downtown PSA 10 of this year.
Even ungraded Anthony Miller Downtowns have sold for north of $150 in recent months. No offense to Miller, but that’s sad.
So who would’ve thought that Darnold would be the hero NFL card collectors — and I guess the Minnesota Vikings, too — needed three weeks into the 2024 season. Because like 2018 NFL Draft classmate Baker Mayfield last year, those who stashed away Darnold cards (either intentionally or not) might want to unearth them right now if they’re looking to cash in.
Could anyone have seen this coming? Well, maybe…
There’s a wild stat that I’ve tossed around about Darnold since the 2022 season that I wondered might simply be fool’s gold: From Weeks 10 to 18, the then-Panthers starting quarterback, the team’s third one of that season along with Mayfield and P.J. Walker, ranked third in the league in EPA (expected points added, via TruMedia) per dropback rate at 0.18, behind only Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes.
There’s no doubt in my mind someone in the San Francisco 49ers analytics department spotted this trend, and that’s why the 49ers brought him over in 2023 to back up Brock Purdy. I also feel confident in saying that’s also why the Vikings snagged him after Kirk Cousins’ departure and even before the team knew which quarterback it would draft.
The Vikings hadn’t counted Darnold out, at least for the present, when they signed him to a one-year deal this offseason knowing their future quarterback would be acquired in the 2024 NFL Draft. So when the Vikings traded up one spot to No. 10 to take Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Darnold seemingly cemented his role as a “bridge” quarterback.
As for the hobby aspect, you’d assume any player’s Downtown card would sell for at least triple digits, and more like $200. And at minimum you double the value with a gem mint grade. This means a Darnold raw Downtown rookie might have fetched about $50 at the beginning of this year. That’s insane given the popularity of the case-hit insert.
But even as a “bridge” quarterback, the hobby started cracking open its wallet slightly for Darnold once the Vikings signed him at the onset of free agency. The potential existed for the nomadic quarterback given the Vikings had no one else of serious threat to challenge Darnold for the starting job.
Then McCarthy went down with a season-ending knee injury signaling there was no doubt the Vikings would roll with Darnold as their starter for the entire 2024 season. Then Darnold threw two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 1. Then Darnold stunned his previous team with two TDs to shock the 49ers. Then Darnold one-upped hobby darling C.J. Stroud by tossing four TDs in the Vikings’ blowout win over the Texans.
The market for Darnold’s Optic Downtown has responded each step of the way:
Darnold’s rookie 2018 Optic Downtown PSA 10 sales
- Jan. 25: $97.76
- Feb. 13: $170.50
- Feb. 23: $200
- March 18: $242.50
- June 8: $295
- Aug. 25: $408
- Sept. 1: $430
- Sept. 9: $550
- Sept. 17: $630
- Sept. 24: $730
It’s almost impossible not to liken Darnold’s on-field and hobby rise to Mayfield’s roller-coaster ride from the past few seasons:
Mayfield’s rookie 2018 Optic Downtown PSA 10 sales
- Sept. 2, 2022: $750
- Sept. 11: $450.01
- Oct. 31: $165.50
- Nov. 22: $154.49
- Aug. 9, 2023: $280
- Sept. 22: $400
- Oct. 22: $295
- Dec. 24: $425
- Jan. 15, 2024: $501
- Aug. 15: $655
- Aug. 29: $695
- Sept. 15: $800
- Sept. 18: $999
So how long will this last for Darnold? He avoided a significant injury scare last week against the Texans after sustaining a bruised knee which shouldn’t keep him from playing Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. But can Darnold maintain and even improve his momentum?
It’s not as if the Vikings will be facing incredible defenses for the most part in their next seven games. Here’s a peek at where each opponent’s defense stands in EPA (expected points added, via TruMedia) per play rankings:
- Packers: 10th
- Jets: 13th
- Lions: 15th
- Rams: 31st
- Colts: 17th
- Jaguars: 29th
- Titans: 9th
Count Geno Smith and we’ve witnessed three QB career renaissances in recent years, along with Mayfield and Darnold. Smith and Mayfield have extended their runs. Darnold has the potential to maintain with the weapons around him and a sudden revival of Minnesota’s Purple People Eater defense.
If players like Darnold and Mayfield can do it, you might want to keep those Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones Downtowns handy, too!
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(Top photo: Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images; card images: eBay)
